Recent mutual declarations of short-term unilateral ceasefires—Russia for May 8-9 Victory Day and Ukraine from May 5-6—collapsed amid accusations of violations and ongoing drone and missile strikes, highlighting persistent military tensions as of early May 2026. Yet trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 70% Yes, driven by April diplomatic signals including US-brokered talks where Kyiv intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov cited progress toward compromise on territories despite maximalist positions, plus a major prisoner swap of 193 each side mediated by the US and UAE. Battlefield stalemate, Russian net territorial losses in April, and war fatigue bolster expectations for de-escalation negotiations over the longer horizon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para finales de 2027?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para finales de 2027?
Sí
$192,817 Vol.
$192,817 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sí
$192,817 Vol.
$192,817 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent mutual declarations of short-term unilateral ceasefires—Russia for May 8-9 Victory Day and Ukraine from May 5-6—collapsed amid accusations of violations and ongoing drone and missile strikes, highlighting persistent military tensions as of early May 2026. Yet trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 70% Yes, driven by April diplomatic signals including US-brokered talks where Kyiv intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov cited progress toward compromise on territories despite maximalist positions, plus a major prisoner swap of 193 each side mediated by the US and UAE. Battlefield stalemate, Russian net territorial losses in April, and war fatigue bolster expectations for de-escalation negotiations over the longer horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$192,817Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent mutual declarations of short-term unilateral ceasefires—Russia for May 8-9 Victory Day and Ukraine from May 5-6—collapsed amid accusations of violations and ongoing drone and missile strikes, highlighting persistent military tensions as of early May 2026. Yet trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 70% Yes, driven by April diplomatic signals including US-brokered talks where Kyiv intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov cited progress toward compromise on territories despite maximalist positions, plus a major prisoner swap of 193 each side mediated by the US and UAE. Battlefield stalemate, Russian net territorial losses in April, and war fatigue bolster expectations for de-escalation negotiations over the longer horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$192,817Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Recent mutual declarations of short-term unilateral ceasefires—Russia for May 8-9 Victory Day and Ukraine from May 5-6—collapsed amid accusations of violations and ongoing drone and missile strikes, highlighting persistent military tensions as of early May 2026. Yet trader consensus prices a full Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2027 at 70% Yes, driven by April diplomatic signals including US-brokered talks where Kyiv intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov cited progress toward compromise on territories despite maximalist positions, plus a major prisoner swap of 193 each side mediated by the US and UAE. Battlefield stalemate, Russian net territorial losses in April, and war fatigue bolster expectations for de-escalation negotiations over the longer horizon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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