Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including recent gains near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar amid intensified airstrikes and North Korean troop involvement supporting Moscow, underscore persistent escalation rather than de-escalation, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 66.5% for a ceasefire by end-2026. Ukrainian forces continue defensive operations and incursions like the Kursk offensive, while President Zelenskyy's "victory plan" emphasizing NATO membership faces Russian rejection of anything short of territorial concessions and demilitarization. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with Putin reiterating maximalist demands and no direct Russia-Ukraine talks; incoming U.S. President Trump's negotiation pledges introduce uncertainty, but historical patterns of protracted conflicts temper expectations for resolution within 18 months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$12,208,326 Vol.
$12,208,326 Vol.
Sí
$12,208,326 Vol.
$12,208,326 Vol.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including recent gains near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar amid intensified airstrikes and North Korean troop involvement supporting Moscow, underscore persistent escalation rather than de-escalation, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 66.5% for a ceasefire by end-2026. Ukrainian forces continue defensive operations and incursions like the Kursk offensive, while President Zelenskyy's "victory plan" emphasizing NATO membership faces Russian rejection of anything short of territorial concessions and demilitarization. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with Putin reiterating maximalist demands and no direct Russia-Ukraine talks; incoming U.S. President Trump's negotiation pledges introduce uncertainty, but historical patterns of protracted conflicts temper expectations for resolution within 18 months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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