Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5% ("No" at 74.5%), anchored by the Kremlin's May 9 statement that peace remains "a very long way off" despite a U.S.-brokered three-day truce starting that day for Victory Day, including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Announced by President Trump on May 8, the temporary halt follows mutual accusations of violations in prior short pauses, like Kyiv's rejected May 6 proposal, amid persistent airstrikes, ground offensives, and stalled diplomacy over territorial disputes and security guarantees. Without escalation to substantive negotiations or de-escalation signals, traders see entrenched stalemate favoring continued hostilities through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
Sí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5% ("No" at 74.5%), anchored by the Kremlin's May 9 statement that peace remains "a very long way off" despite a U.S.-brokered three-day truce starting that day for Victory Day, including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Announced by President Trump on May 8, the temporary halt follows mutual accusations of violations in prior short pauses, like Kyiv's rejected May 6 proposal, amid persistent airstrikes, ground offensives, and stalled diplomacy over territorial disputes and security guarantees. Without escalation to substantive negotiations or de-escalation signals, traders see entrenched stalemate favoring continued hostilities through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5% ("No" at 74.5%), anchored by the Kremlin's May 9 statement that peace remains "a very long way off" despite a U.S.-brokered three-day truce starting that day for Victory Day, including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Announced by President Trump on May 8, the temporary halt follows mutual accusations of violations in prior short pauses, like Kyiv's rejected May 6 proposal, amid persistent airstrikes, ground offensives, and stalled diplomacy over territorial disputes and security guarantees. Without escalation to substantive negotiations or de-escalation signals, traders see entrenched stalemate favoring continued hostilities through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5% ("No" at 74.5%), anchored by the Kremlin's May 9 statement that peace remains "a very long way off" despite a U.S.-brokered three-day truce starting that day for Victory Day, including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Announced by President Trump on May 8, the temporary halt follows mutual accusations of violations in prior short pauses, like Kyiv's rejected May 6 proposal, amid persistent airstrikes, ground offensives, and stalled diplomacy over territorial disputes and security guarantees. Without escalation to substantive negotiations or de-escalation signals, traders see entrenched stalemate favoring continued hostilities through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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