Russian forces have reached the eastern and southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast but made no significant advances since late October 2025, with recent Institute for the Study of War assessments on May 7 confirming only minor infiltrations repelled by Ukrainian defenders. Intensified Russian assaults using small infantry groups rose in April 2026, capturing nearby Novodmytrivka, yet Ukrainian counteractions and strikes on Russian logistics have stalled momentum in the Kostyantynivka-Druhzivka tactical area amid the broader Pokrovsk front clashes. As a key logistical hub in Ukraine's "fortress belt," full capture faces high barriers from entrenched defenses and glide bomb interdiction, though Russian reinforcements could escalate pressure before any year-end resolution. Traders weigh grinding attrition against potential breakthroughs in ongoing eastern frontline operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRussia unilaterally declares a truce for May 8‑9, reducing expectations of immediate offensive gains and stabilising the
September 30, 2026 rises to 58%3%
Russia unilaterally declares a truce for May 8‑9, reducing expectations of immediate offensive gains and stabilising the
Russian forces improve tactical position on Kostyantynivka approaches, but Ukrainian defenses remain strong – Pravda’s May 7 summary noted “Russian forces improve their tactical
September 30, 2026 rises to 55%4%
Russian forces improve tactical position on Kostyantynivka approaches, but Ukrainian defenses remain strong – Pravda’s May 7 summary noted “Russian forces improve their tactical position” while also stressing continued Ukrainian resistance, leading to a slight rebound in the market’s odds.
Pravda‑EN summarises “Russian forces improve their tactical position in Kostyantynivka and on the approaches” while Ukrainian drone strikes continue, nudging the
September 30, 2026 rises to 55%2%
Pravda‑EN summarises “Russian forces improve their tactical position in Kostyantynivka and on the approaches” while Ukrainian drone strikes continue, nudging the
ISW notes Russian forces adapting attacks to weather, limiting drone‑supported assaults – The assessment explained that poor weather forced Russia to rely on larger ground groups
September 30, 2026 surges to 57%23%
ISW notes Russian forces adapting attacks to weather, limiting drone‑supported assaults – The assessment explained that poor weather forced Russia to rely on larger ground groups rather than drone‑led operations, suggesting a temporary slowdown but not a reversal, nudging the.
ISW notes “Russian forces continued small‑group infiltrations on May 6 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces reportedly counter‑attacked”
September 30, 2026 drops to 55%9%
ISW notes “Russian forces continued small‑group infiltrations on May 6 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces reportedly counter‑attacked”
A Russian milblogger again claims “advances in western Kostyantynivka,” but ISW’s assessment of limited progress tempers optimism, causing a modest dip
September 30, 2026 dips to 53%2%
A Russian milblogger again claims “advances in western Kostyantynivka,” but ISW’s assessment of limited progress tempers optimism, causing a modest dip
Reuters reiterates Russian claim of taking Novodmytrivka while Ukrainian officials stress continued resistance, stabilising the
May 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
Reuters reiterates Russian claim of taking Novodmytrivka while Ukrainian officials stress continued resistance, stabilising the
Report of rising Russian troop desertions undermining the Kostyantynivka offensive – CryptoBriefing highlighted increasing desertions among Russian troops, a factor that could
September 30, 2026 drops to 51%6%
Report of rising Russian troop desertions undermining the Kostyantynivka offensive – CryptoBriefing highlighted increasing desertions among Russian troops, a factor that could hamper offensive capability and caused a modest.
ISW assessment noted a resurgence of Russian attacks (83 assaults in the last week) but also highlighted Ukrainian counter‑attacks, causing a modest rebound in odds
May 31, 2026 jumps to 20%6%
ISW assessment noted a resurgence of Russian attacks (83 assaults in the last week) but also highlighted Ukrainian counter‑attacks, causing a modest rebound in odds
Pravda Ukraine reports intensified fighting inside Kostyantynivka and Russian advances near Novodmitrivka – The outlet described “fierce fighting” and “evidence of new attacks on
September 30, 2026 plunges to 34%30%
Pravda Ukraine reports intensified fighting inside Kostyantynivka and Russian advances near Novodmitrivka – The outlet described “fierce fighting” and “evidence of new attacks on the eastern outskirts,” but also highlighted Ukrainian control of key routes, leading the market to sharply downgrade the capture odds .
ISW records an “infiltration mission in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area on May 5” and a Ukrainian battalion commander describing Russian night attacks with
September 30, 2026 plunges to 34%26%
ISW records an “infiltration mission in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area on May 5” and a Ukrainian battalion commander describing Russian night attacks with anti‑thermal imaging ponchos
Russian milbloggers claim “Russian forces advanced in western Kostyantynivka” after geolocated footage of Ukrainian strikes, prompting a sharp rally
September 30, 2026 surges to 64%30%
Russian milbloggers claim “Russian forces advanced in western Kostyantynivka” after geolocated footage of Ukrainian strikes, prompting a sharp rally
Russian infiltration mission reported in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area – ISW’s May 5 assessment recorded a new Russian infiltration mission, and a Ukrainian battalion
September 30, 2026 surges to 64%21%
Russian infiltration mission reported in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area – ISW’s May 5 assessment recorded a new Russian infiltration mission, and a Ukrainian battalion commander described Russian forces adapting tactics (night attacks with anti‑thermal imaging ponchos), which was interpreted as a possible escalation, pushing the.
Ukrainian brigade reports continued fighting on Kostyantynivka’s outskirts with no decisive breakthrough, stabilising the market near 18%
May 31, 2026 rises to 18%3%
Ukrainian brigade reports continued fighting on Kostyantynivka’s outskirts with no decisive breakthrough, stabilising the market near 18%
Pravda‑Ukraine reports “Russian forces delivered a series of strikes in the front‑line zone and advanced south of the settlement, with new attacks on the eastern outskirts near
September 30, 2026 surges to 60%17%
Pravda‑Ukraine reports “Russian forces delivered a series of strikes in the front‑line zone and advanced south of the settlement, with new attacks on the eastern outskirts near Novodmitrivka”
ISW assessment notes Russian forces “continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction on May 4 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counter‑attacked in the area”
September 30, 2026 drops to 43%7%
ISW assessment notes Russian forces “continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction on May 4 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counter‑attacked in the area”
The Independent highlighted continued Ukrainian defensive successes and civilian casualties from Russian attacks, further lowering confidence in a Russian takeover by the end of
June 30, 2026 jumps to 33%7%
The Independent highlighted continued Ukrainian defensive successes and civilian casualties from Russian attacks, further lowering confidence in a Russian takeover by the end of June
ISW assessment (April 30) notes Russian forces intensifying strikes but Ukrainian 11th Army Corps reports high Russian losses, prompting a modest rebound
May 31, 2026 jumps to 18%6%
ISW assessment (April 30) notes Russian forces intensifying strikes but Ukrainian 11th Army Corps reports high Russian losses, prompting a modest rebound
Ukrainian forces claimed a successful counter‑offensive near Pokrovsk, pushing Russian units away from the eastern flank of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 38%11%
Ukrainian forces claimed a successful counter‑offensive near Pokrovsk, pushing Russian units away from the eastern flank of Kostyantynivka
Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes hit Russian positions in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area – Geolocated footage published on May 2‑3 showed Ukrainian forces striking
September 30, 2026 plunges to 43%17%
Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes hit Russian positions in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area – Geolocated footage published on May 2‑3 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, signalling strong Ukrainian resistance and driving the.
Russian forces launch a fresh offensive on Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian counter‑attacks halt any advance – ISW noted that Russian units pushed south of the
September 30, 2026 jumps to 60%10%
Russian forces launch a fresh offensive on Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian counter‑attacks halt any advance – ISW noted that Russian units pushed south of the settlement and opened new attacks on the eastern outskirts, yet Ukrainian forces “counterattacked in the area,” prompting traders to raise the capture probability .
Reuters follow‑up notes Russian troops still only 1 km from the city’s southern edge, with no breakthrough, keeping capture odds low
May 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Reuters follow‑up notes Russian troops still only 1 km from the city’s southern edge, with no breakthrough, keeping capture odds low
Continued intense combat in the Kostyantynivka direction with Russian “South” grouping advancing only marginally, while Ukrainian defenses held key approaches, keeping the market
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Continued intense combat in the Kostyantynivka direction with Russian “South” grouping advancing only marginally, while Ukrainian defenses held key approaches, keeping the market near its low
ISW notes Ukrainian advances in eastern Kostyantynivka and a Russian infiltration mission, hinting at a possible stalemate and prompting a slight rebound
May 31, 2026 rises to 15%3%
ISW notes Ukrainian advances in eastern Kostyantynivka and a Russian infiltration mission, hinting at a possible stalemate and prompting a slight rebound
The Guardian brief noted that Russian troops were “edge‑ing closer” but still faced stiff Ukrainian resistance in the eastern “fortress belt,” dampening capture expectations
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
The Guardian brief noted that Russian troops were “edge‑ing closer” but still faced stiff Ukrainian resistance in the eastern “fortress belt,” dampening capture expectations
Pravda UK reports 1,300 drones used since May 1, stressing intense Ukrainian defence and further eroding confidence in a Russian capture
May 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Pravda UK reports 1,300 drones used since May 1, stressing intense Ukrainian defence and further eroding confidence in a Russian capture
Pravda Ukraine noted Russian units clearing an agricultural college and advancing into built‑up areas of Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian drone strikes intensified
June 30, 2026 drops to 31%5%
Pravda Ukraine noted Russian units clearing an agricultural college and advancing into built‑up areas of Kostyantynivka, while Ukrainian drone strikes intensified
Independent reports a surge in Russian infiltration attempts (83 assaults since the start of April) but Ukrainian forces repelling them, dampening capture prospects
May 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
Independent reports a surge in Russian infiltration attempts (83 assaults since the start of April) but Ukrainian forces repelling them, dampening capture prospects
The Guardian highlighted that over 1,300 Russian drones had been deployed against Kostyantynivka since May 1, underscoring a massive aerial onslaught and further eroding
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%5%
The Guardian highlighted that over 1,300 Russian drones had been deployed against Kostyantynivka since May 1, underscoring a massive aerial onslaught and further eroding confidence in Ukrainian defence
Reuters reports Russian troops inching to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian top army official warns the city remains heavily defended, tempering
May 31, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
Reuters reports Russian troops inching to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian top army official warns the city remains heavily defended, tempering optimism
Reuters cites Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi that Russian troops are inching to within ≈ 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, based on DeepState mapping
May 31, 2026 drops to 20%7%
Reuters cites Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi that Russian troops are inching to within ≈ 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, based on DeepState mapping
Reuters reported Russian Defence Ministry claiming control of Novodmytrivka and General Gerasimov saying troops were advancing on the north and south of Kostyantynivka, briefly
May 31, 2026 jumps to 14%7%
Reuters reported Russian Defence Ministry claiming control of Novodmytrivka and General Gerasimov saying troops were advancing on the north and south of Kostyantynivka, briefly reviving optimism and nudging the
Reuters reported that Russian forces controlled only a one‑kilometre strip on the city’s southern outskirts, confirming that the main urban area was still firmly in Ukrainian hands
June 30, 2026 drops to 33%6%
Reuters reported that Russian forces controlled only a one‑kilometre strip on the city’s southern outskirts, confirming that the main urban area was still firmly in Ukrainian hands
Reuters reported fighting reaching the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with Russian troops only a kilometre from the city’s southern edge, heightening capture expectations
June 30, 2026 drops to 36%11%
Reuters reported fighting reaching the outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with Russian troops only a kilometre from the city’s southern edge, heightening capture expectations
The Independent highlights a surge to 83 Russian assaults in the sector during April, yet no territorial change, reinforcing market pessimism
May 31, 2026 rises to 9%2%
The Independent highlights a surge to 83 Russian assaults in the sector during April, yet no territorial change, reinforcing market pessimism
Guardian report highlights that Polymarket bets are falling as analysts cite ISW maps showing no Russian control of the train station, prompting a market sell‑off
May 31, 2026 drops to 9%11%
Guardian report highlights that Polymarket bets are falling as analysts cite ISW maps showing no Russian control of the train station, prompting a market sell‑off
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in northern Berestok and southeastern Kostyantynivka, confirming continued Ukrainian resistance and driving odds to a low
May 31, 2026 plunges to 7%19%
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in northern Berestok and southeastern Kostyantynivka, confirming continued Ukrainian resistance and driving odds to a low
Reuters reports Russian Defence Ministry claims capture of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian sources dispute any strategic impact, sending odds to a low
May 31, 2026 drops to 7%12%
Reuters reports Russian Defence Ministry claims capture of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian sources dispute any strategic impact, sending odds to a low
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances in southern Dovha Balka and Ivanopillya, while Russian infiltration missions stalled, driving the
May 31, 2026 drops to 7%13%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian advances in southern Dovha Balka and Ivanopillya, while Russian infiltration missions stalled, driving the
ISW shows Ukrainian forces advancing in eastern Kostyantynivka and Russian troops intensifying infiltration, signalling a Ukrainian push back
May 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
ISW shows Ukrainian forces advancing in eastern Kostyantynivka and Russian troops intensifying infiltration, signalling a Ukrainian push back
ISW reported Ukrainian forces striking Russian‑occupied buildings in Kostyantynivka and repelling a motorised assault, reinforcing the view that Russia had not captured the city
May 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
ISW reported Ukrainian forces striking Russian‑occupied buildings in Kostyantynivka and repelling a motorised assault, reinforcing the view that Russia had not captured the city
ISW notes Ukrainian forces recently advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka and Russian assaults shifted to isolated “interval” attacks, undermining Russian momentum
May 31, 2026 drops to 19%6%
ISW notes Ukrainian forces recently advanced in eastern Kostyantynivka and Russian assaults shifted to isolated “interval” attacks, undermining Russian momentum
ISW NCO report says Russian forces intensified strikes and infantry assaults, shifting to interval‑based individual attacks rather than small groups
May 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
ISW NCO report says Russian forces intensified strikes and infantry assaults, shifting to interval‑based individual attacks rather than small groups
Russian offensive‑campaign assessment reports no territorial gains in Kostyantynivka and continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks, cementing the market’s low‑probability view
Russian offensive‑campaign assessment reports no territorial gains in Kostyantynivka and continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks, cementing the market’s low‑probability view
No new confirmed Russian breakthroughs reported;
May 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
market settles near 20 % as traders(no specific source needed for the lack of news).
ISW reports fresh Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka but no breakthrough;
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%13%
Ukrainian counter‑strikes intensify, pushing the market to its lowest level
Ukrainian forces reported fierce fighting and new Russian attacks on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian drone strikes continued to destroy Russian armor,
June 30, 2026 dips to 34%1%
Ukrainian forces reported fierce fighting and new Russian attacks on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian drone strikes continued to destroy Russian armor, reinforcing doubts about a Russian capture
Ukrainian battalion reports intensified Russian infantry and drone assaults without gaining fire control, reinforcing doubts and pushing
May 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Ukrainian battalion reports intensified Russian infantry and drone assaults without gaining fire control, reinforcing doubts and pushing
ISW reported the first territorial loss for Russian forces since 2024, with daily gains dropping to 2.9 km², undermining the likelihood of a Kostyantynivka capture
June 30, 2026 plunges to 35%16%
ISW reported the first territorial loss for Russian forces since 2024, with daily gains dropping to 2.9 km², undermining the likelihood of a Kostyantynivka capture
Pravda UK reports fierce fighting on both flanks and inside Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces still holding key positions and Russian advances unverified
Pravda UK reports fierce fighting on both flanks and inside Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian forces still holding key positions and Russian advances unverified
Russian MoD claims seizure of Novodmytrivka east of Kostyantynivka;
May 31, 2026 drops to 26%12%
Ukrainian sources dispute full control, leading to a modest
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka), yet Ukrainian commanders report Russian assaults still failing to gain fire‑control and increased drone use
April 30, 2026 dips to 0%3%
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka), yet Ukrainian commanders report Russian assaults still failing to gain fire‑control and increased drone use without results
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) but ISW notes Russian forces still conducting infiltration missions without gaining fire‑control, tempering
May 31, 2026 plunges to 22%16%
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) but ISW notes Russian forces still conducting infiltration missions without gaining fire‑control, tempering optimism
ISW notes a sharp rise in Russian personnel losses (720 troops reported on Feb 6) and a slowdown in Russian mechanized assaults, feeding market sentiment that a capture by June 30
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%13%
ISW notes a sharp rise in Russian personnel losses (720 troops reported on Feb 6) and a slowdown in Russian mechanized assaults, feeding market sentiment that a capture by June 30 is unlikely
Critical Threats analysis noted Ukrainian forces advancing east of Kostyantynivka on April 22‑23, casting doubt on the encirclement narrative and pulling the
May 31, 2026 drops to 22%10%
Critical Threats analysis noted Ukrainian forces advancing east of Kostyantynivka on April 22‑23, casting doubt on the encirclement narrative and pulling the
Pravda UK reports fierce fighting on both flanks and inside the city, with Russian forces still probing but Ukrainian counter‑attacks intensifying
June 30, 2026 dips to 43%2%
Pravda UK reports fierce fighting on both flanks and inside the city, with Russian forces still probing but Ukrainian counter‑attacks intensifying
Ukrainian forces report a successful counter‑attack near Ivanopillya, pushing Russian units back from the city’s outskirts, driving the odds sharply lower
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%12%
Ukrainian forces report a successful counter‑attack near Ivanopillya, pushing Russian units back from the city’s outskirts, driving the odds sharply lower
Russian MoD credits 10th Tank Regiment and 77th Motorised Rifle Regiment with seizure of Illinivka, yet Ukrainian commanders say Russian gains remain limited, nudging
May 31, 2026 dips to 22%3%
Russian MoD credits 10th Tank Regiment and 77th Motorised Rifle Regiment with seizure of Illinivka, yet Ukrainian commanders say Russian gains remain limited, nudging
ISW assessment notes continued Russian offensive in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, with mil‑bloggers claiming advances in Illinivka and Dovha Balka
June 30, 2026 drops to 45%5%
ISW assessment notes continued Russian offensive in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, with mil‑bloggers claiming advances in Illinivka and Dovha Balka
ISW assessment notes continued Russian offensive but no confirmed advance;
May 31, 2026 drops to 25%8%
milbloggers claim a Ukrainian counter‑attack in Kostyantynivka, leading to a
Pravda EN article confirms Russian troops penetrating new areas of Kostyantynivka and further enveloping the city
May 31, 2026 rises to 32%4%
Pravda EN article confirms Russian troops penetrating new areas of Kostyantynivka and further enveloping the city
ISW: Russian offensive continues in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area but no confirmed advance;
April 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
mil‑bloggers’ claims of seizing Illinivka are disputed
DeepStateMap reports Russian forces have only reached the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after an infiltration operation, far short of full capture
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%2%
DeepStateMap reports Russian forces have only reached the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after an infiltration operation, far short of full capture
ISW assessment states Russian forces continued operations in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area but made no confirmed gain;
May 31, 2026 drops to 25%13%
milbloggers claim a Ukrainian counter‑attack in the city
A video release confirmed Russian forces had entered Dolgaya Balka, a key settlement on the route to Kostyantynivka, intensifying the encirclement
June 30, 2026 rises to 47%1%
A video release confirmed Russian forces had entered Dolgaya Balka, a key settlement on the route to Kostyantynivka, intensifying the encirclement
YouTube frontline update showed Russian forces encircling Kostyantynivka after capturing Illinivka, suggesting a possible encirclement and prompting a short‑term
May 31, 2026 jumps to 32%5%
YouTube frontline update showed Russian forces encircling Kostyantynivka after capturing Illinivka, suggesting a possible encirclement and prompting a short‑term
Pravda EN reports Russian troops beginning a flanking operation and enveloping Kostyantynivka from three sides, raising expectations of a possible capture
May 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
Pravda EN reports Russian troops beginning a flanking operation and enveloping Kostyantynivka from three sides, raising expectations of a possible capture
Medium report highlighted Russian advances on the Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk axes, citing new Russian‑controlled positions west of the city, which briefly lifted market
May 31, 2026 dips to 27%1%
Medium report highlighted Russian advances on the Kostyantynivka and Slovyansk axes, citing new Russian‑controlled positions west of the city, which briefly lifted market confidence
YouTube “Russia Make Moves west of Kostyantynivka!” shows Russian units reaching the city’s zinc plant after an infiltration, prompting a market rally
May 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
YouTube “Russia Make Moves west of Kostyantynivka!” shows Russian units reaching the city’s zinc plant after an infiltration, prompting a market rally
ISW assessment notes a spike in Russian attacks (83 strikes) in the Kostyantynivka direction during the week, suggesting a renewed offensive push
May 31, 2026 jumps to 38%7%
ISW assessment notes a spike in Russian attacks (83 strikes) in the Kostyantynivka direction during the week, suggesting a renewed offensive push
A YouTube frontline‑update showed Russian units making only minor “west of Kostyantynivka” movements, reinforcing the view that the city remained out of reach
June 30, 2026 drops to 37%11%
A YouTube frontline‑update showed Russian units making only minor “west of Kostyantynivka” movements, reinforcing the view that the city remained out of reach
Geolocated footage shows Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, reinforcing doubts about a capture
June 30, 2026 plunges to 48%20%
Geolocated footage shows Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, reinforcing doubts about a capture
Pravda Germany reports Russian troops regaining positions in southern Kostyantynivka and taking Dolgaya Balka, sparking a
May 31, 2026 jumps to 33%7%
Pravda Germany reports Russian troops regaining positions in southern Kostyantynivka and taking Dolgaya Balka, sparking a
Russian milbloggers claim a “capture” of nearby Berestok, but ISW finds no terrain change, leading to a brief
June 30, 2026 dips to 47%2%
Russian milbloggers claim a “capture” of nearby Berestok, but ISW finds no terrain change, leading to a brief
Ukrainian 16th Army Corps repels a motorised assault by Russia’s 127th Rifle Regiment near Vovchanski Khutory;
April 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
ISW notes Ukrainian forces maintain positions in southeastern Kostyantynivka
ISW records Ukrainian repulse of a Russian motorised assault in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, causing the
May 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
ISW records Ukrainian repulse of a Russian motorised assault in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, causing the
Reports emerged that Russian forces had struck the dam near Osykove, flooding roads to Kostyantynivka and complicating Ukrainian logistics, causing the market to lower the capture
December 31, 2026 dips to 80%4%
Reports emerged that Russian forces had struck the dam near Osykove, flooding roads to Kostyantynivka and complicating Ukrainian logistics, causing the market to lower the capture probability
Ukrainian brigade commander said Russian forces were “continuously conducting infantry and armoured‑vehicle assaults” but Ukrainian defences repelled them, leading to a modest
May 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
Ukrainian brigade commander said Russian forces were “continuously conducting infantry and armoured‑vehicle assaults” but Ukrainian defences repelled them, leading to a modest
Pravda EN notes Russian troops launch a broad‑front flanking operation, entering Dolgaya Balka and pressing on three sides of Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 surges to 30%16%
Pravda EN notes Russian troops launch a broad‑front flanking operation, entering Dolgaya Balka and pressing on three sides of Kostyantynivka
Pravda Ukraine reports Russian troops beginning a broad‑front flanking operation, enveloping Kostyantynivka’s outskirts from three sides
May 31, 2026 rises to 28%4%
Pravda Ukraine reports Russian troops beginning a broad‑front flanking operation, enveloping Kostyantynivka’s outskirts from three sides
Pravda Ukraine notes heavy combat and a Russian push into the southern part of Kostyantynivka, prompting a modest
May 31, 2026 rises to 30%4%
Pravda Ukraine notes heavy combat and a Russian push into the southern part of Kostyantynivka, prompting a modest
DeepStateMap and ISW reported Russian advances slowing and Ukrainian anti‑drone nets being deployed in Kostyantynivka, reinforcing belief that a capture by year‑end was less likely
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%1%
DeepStateMap and ISW reported Russian advances slowing and Ukrainian anti‑drone nets being deployed in Kostyantynivka, reinforcing belief that a capture by year‑end was less likely
Russian Defence Ministry announces capture of nearby village Novodmytrivka, but satellite mapping shows Russian control only ~1 km from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts,
May 31, 2026 surges to 31%17%
Russian Defence Ministry announces capture of nearby village Novodmytrivka, but satellite mapping shows Russian control only ~1 km from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, prompting mixed market reaction
Ukrainian forces strike a Russian‑occupied building in Kostyantynivka during an infiltration mission, indicating continued Ukrainian control of the city centre
May 31, 2026 surges to 30%16%
Ukrainian forces strike a Russian‑occupied building in Kostyantynivka during an infiltration mission, indicating continued Ukrainian control of the city centre
ISW assessment reported Russian mechanised assaults east of Chasiv Yar but no confirmed advances in the Kostyantynivka direction, prompting traders to reassess the odds upward
May 31, 2026 drops to 26%5%
ISW assessment reported Russian mechanised assaults east of Chasiv Yar but no confirmed advances in the Kostyantynivka direction, prompting traders to reassess the odds upward
ISW reports continued Russian attacks in the Kostyantynivka direction but no confirmed territorial gains;
April 30, 2026 dips to 8%4%
mil‑bloggers’ claims of advances are unverified
ISW reports no confirmed Russian gains but milbloggers claim a limited advance in southern Illinivka, lifting optimism and pushing
May 31, 2026 jumps to 26%12%
ISW reports no confirmed Russian gains but milbloggers claim a limited advance in southern Illinivka, lifting optimism and pushing
ISW notes Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction but made no confirmed gains
May 31, 2026 jumps to 24%10%
ISW notes Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction but made no confirmed gains
Mil‑blogger claim of Russian advance west of Illinivka is unverified;
May 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
ISW reports Ukrainian forces still holding positions north of Stinky, suggesting Russian progress stalled
ISW assessment reports Russian troops shifting from small‑group infiltrations to light‑vehicle motorised assaults in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area
May 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
ISW assessment reports Russian troops shifting from small‑group infiltrations to light‑vehicle motorised assaults in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area
Ukrainian brigade says it repelled a Russian motor‑bike assault near Chasiv Yar, halting Russian pressure on Kostyantynivka’s southern flank
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%24%
Ukrainian brigade says it repelled a Russian motor‑bike assault near Chasiv Yar, halting Russian pressure on Kostyantynivka’s southern flank
Ukrainian milbloggers posted geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces still holding positions northeast of Stinky and southern Chasiv Yar, contradicting Russian claims of a
May 31, 2026 surges to 31%17%
Ukrainian milbloggers posted geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces still holding positions northeast of Stinky and southern Chasiv Yar, contradicting Russian claims of a breakthrough west of Kostyantynivka
ISW assessment notes Russian mechanised assaults east of Chasiv Yar and no confirmed gains in the Kostyantynivka direction, contradicting earlier Russian claims
May 31, 2026 plunges to 13%38%
ISW assessment notes Russian mechanised assaults east of Chasiv Yar and no confirmed gains in the Kostyantynivka direction, contradicting earlier Russian claims
ISW reports Russian forces continue mechanized assaults in the Kostyantynivka direction but no confirmed advances
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
ISW reports Russian forces continue mechanized assaults in the Kostyantynivka direction but no confirmed advances
Ukrainian forces strike Russian vehicles south of Predtechyne, halting the advance and prompting a sharp
May 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
Ukrainian forces strike Russian vehicles south of Predtechyne, halting the advance and prompting a sharp
Russia’s Defence Ministry announced the seizure of the village of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka, claiming the move opened a “new axis” toward the city
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
Russia’s Defence Ministry announced the seizure of the village of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka, claiming the move opened a “new axis” toward the city
Russian mil‑blogger claims Russian forces advanced south of Minkivka, northeast of Kostyantynivka
May 31, 2026 plunges to 13%38%
Russian mil‑blogger claims Russian forces advanced south of Minkivka, northeast of Kostyantynivka
ISW assessment notes Russian offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction continue without any territorial advance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 68%15%
ISW assessment notes Russian offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction continue without any territorial advance
Ukrainian forces report fresh advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, while Russian troops continue infiltration attempts but make no confirmed gains
May 31, 2026 drops to 38%13%
Ukrainian forces report fresh advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, while Russian troops continue infiltration attempts but make no confirmed gains
Russian milbloggers claim capture of Illinivka, a key village west of Kostyantynivka, suggesting a new encirclement
May 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
Russian milbloggers claim capture of Illinivka, a key village west of Kostyantynivka, suggesting a new encirclement
ISW’s April 2026 assessment reported Russian forces only holding about 5 % of Kostyantynivka and facing high casualty rates, prompting a modest
December 31, 2026 drops to 79%8%
ISW’s April 2026 assessment reported Russian forces only holding about 5 % of Kostyantynivka and facing high casualty rates, prompting a modest
ISW analysis shows Russian forces only reaching the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with the southeastern “gray zone” still contested and high casualty rates slowing the
April 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
ISW analysis shows Russian forces only reaching the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with the southeastern “gray zone” still contested and high casualty rates slowing the assault
ISW assessment: Russian forces reach Kostyantynivka’s eastern outskirts but the southeast remains a “gray zone” and casualties are high, limiting further assault
April 30, 2026 drops to 20%7%
ISW assessment: Russian forces reach Kostyantynivka’s eastern outskirts but the southeast remains a “gray zone” and casualties are high, limiting further assault
ISW notes Russian priority shifts to reinforcing the Pokrovsk direction, reducing offensive pressure on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%3%
ISW notes Russian priority shifts to reinforcing the Pokrovsk direction, reducing offensive pressure on Kostyantynivka
ISW notes Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area after a week of heavy Russian drone activity, suggesting the offensive is stalling
June 30, 2026 dips to 49%3%
ISW notes Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area after a week of heavy Russian drone activity, suggesting the offensive is stalling
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, according to ISW
June 30, 2026 rises to 83%4%
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, according to ISW
Russian MoD decree orders a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter (16:00 Moscow time → 12:00 Moscow time 12 April), halting offensive operations around Kostyantynivka
April 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Russian MoD decree orders a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter (16:00 Moscow time → 12:00 Moscow time 12 April), halting offensive operations around Kostyantynivka
Putin signs an Easter cease‑fire decree, halting combat for 24 hours;
April 30, 2026 dips to 38%3%
Russian offensives pause and no advance is reported
Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising doubts about Russian control
June 30, 2026 rises to 52%1%
Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising doubts about Russian control
President Zelensky reports Russia set a deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by end‑April;
April 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
ISW notes Russian forces have not advanced despite intense fighting
Pravda reports Russian troops entering Dolgaya Balka and encircling Kostyantynivka from three sides, reviving capture expectations
June 30, 2026 jumps to 59%7%
Pravda reports Russian troops entering Dolgaya Balka and encircling Kostyantynivka from three sides, reviving capture expectations
During President Zelensky’s Istanbul visit, a Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising
June 30, 2026 dips to 60%4%
During President Zelensky’s Istanbul visit, a Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising doubts about Russian control
Russian Defense Ministry announced the seizure of the villages of Berestok and Sofiivka south of Kostyantynivka, prompting a short‑term
June 30, 2026 jumps to 55%9%
Russian Defense Ministry announced the seizure of the villages of Berestok and Sofiivka south of Kostyantynivka, prompting a short‑term
President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia set an end‑April deadline to take Kostyantynivka, but ISW notes the deadline will not be met
April 30, 2026 drops to 41%14%
President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia set an end‑April deadline to take Kostyantynivka, but ISW notes the deadline will not be met
Russian drone‑strike on a Ukrainian‑controlled building in southern Kostyantynivka reported, raising fears of renewed BAI activity
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%8%
Russian drone‑strike on a Ukrainian‑controlled building in southern Kostyantynivka reported, raising fears of renewed BAI activity
Ukrainian forces strike a Russian‑occupied building in southern Kostyantynivka, confirming Ukrainian counter‑offensive activity
June 30, 2026 rises to 51%3%
Ukrainian forces strike a Russian‑occupied building in southern Kostyantynivka, confirming Ukrainian counter‑offensive activity
Russian Ministry of Defense announces a new flanking operation on the eastern flank, claiming seizure of Novodmitrivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 52%7%
Russian Ministry of Defense announces a new flanking operation on the eastern flank, claiming seizure of Novodmitrivka
Russian forces capture hills south of Kostyantynivka, the first significant terrain gain in months
December 31, 2026 dips to 79%2%
Russian forces capture hills south of Kostyantynivka, the first significant terrain gain in months
DeepStateMap reports Russian forces have retaken Illinivka west of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian defenses hold the city’s core, leading to a modest
December 31, 2026 dips to 81%4%
DeepStateMap reports Russian forces have retaken Illinivka west of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian defenses hold the city’s core, leading to a modest
Ukrainian forces intercepted a Russian infiltration attempt using gas pipelines in Sumy Oblast, killing 29 Russian soldiers and halting the push toward Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 46%9%
Ukrainian forces intercepted a Russian infiltration attempt using gas pipelines in Sumy Oblast, killing 29 Russian soldiers and halting the push toward Kostyantynivka
Russian milbloggers claim a failed motor‑bike assault and the seizure of nearby villages;
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%7%
ISW notes no confirmed Russian gains
A Russian mil‑blogger claimed capture of the villages of Stepanivka and Staroukrainka southwest of Kostyantynivka, briefly boosting confidence in a Russian takeover
June 30, 2026 rises to 55%3%
A Russian mil‑blogger claimed capture of the villages of Stepanivka and Staroukrainka southwest of Kostyantynivka, briefly boosting confidence in a Russian takeover
Hudson Institute report highlights a moderate operational tempo with no fresh breakthroughs near Kostyantynivka, prompting the final decline toward 80%
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%9%
Hudson Institute report highlights a moderate operational tempo with no fresh breakthroughs near Kostyantynivka, prompting the final decline toward 80%
Russian forces conduct infiltration operations east of Berestok;
June 30, 2026 dips to 64%4%
ISW assesses Ukrainian advances along the Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway, weakening Russian momentum
Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka are documented, but Ukrainian forces also strike Russian positions, indicating a contested front
June 30, 2026 dips to 68%1%
Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka are documented, but Ukrainian forces also strike Russian positions, indicating a contested front
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, undermining earlier capture expectations
June 30, 2026 drops to 48%12%
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, undermining earlier capture expectations
Pravda UK reported Russian troops completing the clearing of Ilyinivka and beginning a flanking operation that enveloped Kostyantynivka from three sides
June 30, 2026 plunges to 48%18%
Pravda UK reported Russian troops completing the clearing of Ilyinivka and beginning a flanking operation that enveloped Kostyantynivka from three sides
Reports of tens of thousands of Russian desertions emerged, highlighting manpower shortages for the Kostyantynivka offensive
June 30, 2026 drops to 50%9%
Reports of tens of thousands of Russian desertions emerged, highlighting manpower shortages for the Kostyantynivka offensive
Reports emerged that Russian desertions had risen sharply, with tens of thousands of soldiers AWOL, undermining Moscow’s ability to sustain offensives around Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 drops to 42%10%
Reports emerged that Russian desertions had risen sharply, with tens of thousands of soldiers AWOL, undermining Moscow’s ability to sustain offensives around Kostyantynivka
Russian desertion reports surged, with tens of thousands of troops AWOL, undermining the offensive’s manpower and pushing the market lower
June 30, 2026 drops to 46%6%
Russian desertion reports surged, with tens of thousands of troops AWOL, undermining the offensive’s manpower and pushing the market lower
Ukrainian forces launch a counter‑offensive in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, retaking several villages and halting Russian momentum
June 30, 2026 drops to 45%14%
Ukrainian forces launch a counter‑offensive in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, retaking several villages and halting Russian momentum
Russian milbloggers claimed control of the villages of Stepanivka and Staroukrainka near Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian sources disputed the extent, leading to a small
December 31, 2026 drops to 84%5%
Russian milbloggers claimed control of the villages of Stepanivka and Staroukrainka near Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian sources disputed the extent, leading to a small
ISW reports Ukrainian forces advancing north of Yablunivka and southeastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting a Ukrainian push that could stall Russian capture plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 69%2%
ISW reports Ukrainian forces advancing north of Yablunivka and southeastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting a Ukrainian push that could stall Russian capture plans
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, with geolocated footage showing Russian positions being overrun
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, with geolocated footage showing Russian positions being overrun
ISW noted Russian forces attacking near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian defenses held key positions, causing another modest dip
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%3%
ISW noted Russian forces attacking near Kostyantynivka and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian defenses held key positions, causing another modest dip
Ukrainian battlefield mapping (DeepState) indicated Russian troops were still only 1 km from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, limiting expectations of a rapid capture
June 30, 2026 drops to 61%7%
Ukrainian battlefield mapping (DeepState) indicated Russian troops were still only 1 km from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, limiting expectations of a rapid capture
Ukrainian troops captured a Russian soldier near the railway station, confirming Ukrainian control of the city centre and repelling Russian assaults
June 30, 2026 drops to 68%6%
Ukrainian troops captured a Russian soldier near the railway station, confirming Ukrainian control of the city centre and repelling Russian assaults
ISW notes Russian infiltration in south‑Podoly and advances east of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian anti‑drone nets limit resupply, hinting at a slowdown
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%4%
ISW notes Russian infiltration in south‑Podoly and advances east of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian anti‑drone nets limit resupply, hinting at a slowdown
Ukrainian forces push forward on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, while Russian advances remain limited
June 30, 2026 dips to 78%4%
Ukrainian forces push forward on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, while Russian advances remain limited
Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade installs anti‑drone nets around Kostyantynivka roads, signalling reinforced defence and slowing Russian advances
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%2%
Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade installs anti‑drone nets around Kostyantynivka roads, signalling reinforced defence and slowing Russian advances
Ukrainian drones disrupted a Russian night assault near Kostyantynivka, destroying an MT‑LB and showing effective Ukrainian resistance
December 31, 2026 rises to 87%1%
Ukrainian drones disrupted a Russian night assault near Kostyantynivka, destroying an MT‑LB and showing effective Ukrainian resistance
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorised assault on the southern flank of Kostyantynivka, inflicting heavy casualties
April 30, 2026 drops to 45%10%
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorised assault on the southern flank of Kostyantynivka, inflicting heavy casualties
Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade repelled Russian assault groups and retook positions around Kostyantynivka, signalling a stalemate and prompting a
June 30, 2026 dips to 68%1%
Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade repelled Russian assault groups and retook positions around Kostyantynivka, signalling a stalemate and prompting a
Euromaidan Press reported Russian troops captured the hills south of Kostyantynivka, a “significant advancement” that lifted odds again
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%3%
Euromaidan Press reported Russian troops captured the hills south of Kostyantynivka, a “significant advancement” that lifted odds again
Ukrainian defenders recapture the railway station and capture a Russian soldier in downtown Kostyantynivka, signalling strong resistance
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%7%
Ukrainian defenders recapture the railway station and capture a Russian soldier in downtown Kostyantynivka, signalling strong resistance
Russian units reach the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after a flanking operation, raising expectations of a full capture
June 30, 2026 jumps to 80%9%
Russian units reach the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after a flanking operation, raising expectations of a full capture
Russian troops captured the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after an infiltration operation, suggesting a possible breakthrough
June 30, 2026 drops to 74%5%
Russian troops captured the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after an infiltration operation, suggesting a possible breakthrough
ISW assessment notes no confirmed Russian gains and Ukrainian forces still holding positions northeast of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier breakthrough claims
April 30, 2026 rises to 48%2%
ISW assessment notes no confirmed Russian gains and Ukrainian forces still holding positions northeast of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier breakthrough claims
ISW reports Russian forces advancing southeast of Kostyantynivka and on its eastern outskirts, suggesting a fresh offensive thrust
June 30, 2026 rises to 82%3%
ISW reports Russian forces advancing southeast of Kostyantynivka and on its eastern outskirts, suggesting a fresh offensive thrust
Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian assault on the central railway station, recapturing a Russian soldier and showing the city was still contested
June 30, 2026 drops to 72%9%
Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian assault on the central railway station, recapturing a Russian soldier and showing the city was still contested
Russian offensive campaign assessment notes continued fighting but no new territorial gains around Kostyantynivka, keeping odds high but stabilising
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Russian offensive campaign assessment notes continued fighting but no new territorial gains around Kostyantynivka, keeping odds high but stabilising
Ukrainian forces captured a Russian soldier near the city’s railway station, confirming Ukrainian control of the central hub and sparking a short‑term
June 30, 2026 drops to 79%5%
Ukrainian forces captured a Russian soldier near the city’s railway station, confirming Ukrainian control of the central hub and sparking a short‑term
Both sides reported fresh advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, but Ukrainian counter‑attacks near Novopavlivka were highlighted, tempering the earlier Russian momentum
June 30, 2026 dips to 69%4%
Both sides reported fresh advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, but Ukrainian counter‑attacks near Novopavlivka were highlighted, tempering the earlier Russian momentum
Russian milbloggers claim breakthrough west of Kostyantynivka, reporting capture of Illinivka and advance toward the city
April 30, 2026 jumps to 46%6%
Russian milbloggers claim breakthrough west of Kostyantynivka, reporting capture of Illinivka and advance toward the city
Russian units used white‑phosphorus munitions and a FAB‑1500 glide bomb on southwestern Kostyantynivka, sparking international condemnation and raising doubts about Russia’s
June 30, 2026 drops to 73%7%
Russian units used white‑phosphorus munitions and a FAB‑1500 glide bomb on southwestern Kostyantynivka, sparking international condemnation and raising doubts about Russia’s ability to hold the town
Russian forces infiltrate Illinivka and claim capture of the western districts of Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 78%11%
Russian forces infiltrate Illinivka and claim capture of the western districts of Kostyantynivka
Geolocated footage showed Russian units briefly seizing a trench system on the eastern edge of Kostyantynivka, prompting analysts to raise capture odds
June 30, 2026 jumps to 84%5%
Geolocated footage showed Russian units briefly seizing a trench system on the eastern edge of Kostyantynivka, prompting analysts to raise capture odds
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian troops capturing a Russian soldier at the Kostyantynivka train station, indicating Ukrainian control of a key transport hub
June 30, 2026 jumps to 80%6%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian troops capturing a Russian soldier at the Kostyantynivka train station, indicating Ukrainian control of a key transport hub
Russia bombed a dam at Osykove, flooding the Druzhivka‑Kostyantynivka supply road and prompting a Ukrainian counter‑offensive that pushed Russian assault groups out of the town
June 30, 2026 rises to 74%3%
Russia bombed a dam at Osykove, flooding the Druzhivka‑Kostyantynivka supply road and prompting a Ukrainian counter‑offensive that pushed Russian assault groups out of the town
Russian forces seized the village of Kleban‑Byk south of Kostyantynivka, advancing northward
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian forces seized the village of Kleban‑Byk south of Kostyantynivka, advancing northward
Ukrainian forces reported fresh advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, pushing back Russian elements near the city
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%8%
Ukrainian forces reported fresh advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, pushing back Russian elements near the city
Russian milbloggers note renewed Russian assaults near Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, signalling a modest offensive uptick
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%3%
Russian milbloggers note renewed Russian assaults near Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages, signalling a modest offensive uptick
Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade repels the Russian push, driving assault groups out of the city
June 30, 2026 drops to 67%6%
Ukrainian 100th Mechanized Brigade repels the Russian push, driving assault groups out of the city
ISW reported a breakthrough west of Kostyantynivka with Russian troops seizing the strategic zinc plant inside the city, prompting the market’s peak at 89
June 30, 2026 jumps to 81%9%
ISW reported a breakthrough west of Kostyantynivka with Russian troops seizing the strategic zinc plant inside the city, prompting the market’s peak at 89
ISW notes Russian forces are “replicating the Pokrovsk strategy” for a new assault on Kostyantynivka, suggesting a forthcoming offensive push
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%9%
ISW notes Russian forces are “replicating the Pokrovsk strategy” for a new assault on Kostyantynivka, suggesting a forthcoming offensive push
ISW reported that Russia had failed to make any significant advances west of Pokrovsk since December 2025, contradicting Kremlin claims of a major push toward Kostyantynivka
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%8%
ISW reported that Russia had failed to make any significant advances west of Pokrovsk since December 2025, contradicting Kremlin claims of a major push toward Kostyantynivka
Russian troops launch a new assault from Yablunivka toward southwestern Kostyantynivka, pushing toward the H‑20 highway
June 30, 2026 jumps to 73%12%
Russian troops launch a new assault from Yablunivka toward southwestern Kostyantynivka, pushing toward the H‑20 highway
Ukrainian forces reported a successful counter‑offensive near the village of Illinivka west of Kostyantynivka, temporarily halting Russian advances and prompting a modest
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%2%
Ukrainian forces reported a successful counter‑offensive near the village of Illinivka west of Kostyantynivka, temporarily halting Russian advances and prompting a modest
Russian milblogger warns that exaggerated Russian‑advance claims are “complicating the situation” in Kostyantynivka, while footage shows continued Russian infiltration missions
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
Russian milblogger warns that exaggerated Russian‑advance claims are “complicating the situation” in Kostyantynivka, while footage shows continued Russian infiltration missions
Russian milbloggers claimed the capture of Sofiivka and highlighted resource shortages in the Kostyantynivka direction, suggesting a possible stall in the advance
December 31, 2026 drops to 86%8%
Russian milbloggers claimed the capture of Sofiivka and highlighted resource shortages in the Kostyantynivka direction, suggesting a possible stall in the advance
Russian Ministry of Defence claims capture of villages Stepanivka (SW of Kostyantynivka) and Staroukrainka, suggesting a widening front
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Russian Ministry of Defence claims capture of villages Stepanivka (SW of Kostyantynivka) and Staroukrainka, suggesting a widening front
Russian FAB‑3000 glide‑bomb and Kh‑38 strikes hit bridges on the Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway, signalling a preparatory BAI campaign for a future assault
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%9%
Russian FAB‑3000 glide‑bomb and Kh‑38 strikes hit bridges on the Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway, signalling a preparatory BAI campaign for a future assault
Russian mil‑bloggers claimed capture of villages near Kostyantynivka (e.g., Novomarkove, Sofiivka) while Ukrainian sources reported counter‑attacks, leading to a small
December 31, 2026 dips to 84%3%
Russian mil‑bloggers claimed capture of villages near Kostyantynivka (e.g., Novomarkove, Sofiivka) while Ukrainian sources reported counter‑attacks, leading to a small
ISW assessment shows Russian advances slowed;
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Pryvillya and Berestok, leading to a modest
Russian forces strike bridges on the H‑20 Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway with FAB‑3000 glide‑bombs, signalling preparation for a larger assault
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%8%
Russian forces strike bridges on the H‑20 Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway with FAB‑3000 glide‑bombs, signalling preparation for a larger assault
Geolocated footage confirms a marginal Russian advance in southern Kostyantynivka, the first reported ground gain in weeks
June 30, 2026 dips to 70%1%
Geolocated footage confirms a marginal Russian advance in southern Kostyantynivka, the first reported ground gain in weeks
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces marginally advancing in southern Kostyantynivka;
June 30, 2026 dips to 70%1%
milbloggers claim further gains on the town’s northern flank
The Russian Ministry of Defence announced the capture of the villages Stepanivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) and Staroukrainka, extending the front line toward the city
June 30, 2026 rises to 72%1%
The Russian Ministry of Defence announced the capture of the villages Stepanivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) and Staroukrainka, extending the front line toward the city
Russian BAI campaign in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area intensifies, targeting Ukrainian logistics with drones and glide‑bombs
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian BAI campaign in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area intensifies, targeting Ukrainian logistics with drones and glide‑bombs
Russia ramps up battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russia ramps up battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
Russia intensifies battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russia intensifies battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
ISW assessment (May 4 2026) confirms Russian forces have infiltrated Kostyantynivka’s eastern outskirts since 24 Oct 2025 but have made no “tactically significant” gains in six
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
ISW assessment (May 4 2026) confirms Russian forces have infiltrated Kostyantynivka’s eastern outskirts since 24 Oct 2025 but have made no “tactically significant” gains in six months
ISW’s Jan 27 2026 campaign assessment listed multiple Russian assaults around Kostyantynivka (north‑east Minkivka, south‑west Stepanivka, etc.), confirming continued offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
ISW’s Jan 27 2026 campaign assessment listed multiple Russian assaults around Kostyantynivka (north‑east Minkivka, south‑west Stepanivka, etc.), confirming continued offensive activity
ISW assessment lists fresh seizures near Kostyantynivka (e.g., Pryvillya, Novoyakovlivka) and ongoing fighting inside the city, confirming continued Russian pressure
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
ISW assessment lists fresh seizures near Kostyantynivka (e.g., Pryvillya, Novoyakovlivka) and ongoing fighting inside the city, confirming continued Russian pressure
ISW assessment listed multiple Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka (including toward Illinivka and Stepanivka) and highlighted “false reports” but still showed heavy fighting,
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%7%
ISW assessment listed multiple Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka (including toward Illinivka and Stepanivka) and highlighted “false reports” but still showed heavy fighting, prompting a modest pull‑back
Critical Threats assessment shows Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements continued without territorial gain, prompting analysts to downgrade expectations
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%1%
Critical Threats assessment shows Russian assaults on Kostyantynivka and nearby settlements continued without territorial gain, prompting analysts to downgrade expectations
Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, signalling a
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%4%
Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated final push
Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked to complete the seizure of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated push
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Kostyantyn Mashovets reported Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked to complete the seizure of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated push
ISW analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
ISW analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated push
ISW assessment noted Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked to complete the seizure of Kostyantynivka, with forces redeployed to the western flank
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%2%
ISW assessment noted Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups were tasked to complete the seizure of Kostyantynivka, with forces redeployed to the western flank
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced Russia controlled 50 % of Kostyantynivka, while ISW estimated only ~5 % – the discrepancy spurred a brief
December 31, 2026 drops to 88%6%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced Russia controlled 50 % of Kostyantynivka, while ISW estimated only ~5 % – the discrepancy spurred a brief
Russian units infiltrated west of Kostyantynivka, reaching the village of Illinivka, signalling the start of a new push toward the city
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian units infiltrated west of Kostyantynivka, reaching the village of Illinivka, signalling the start of a new push toward the city
Russian troops launched a new assault from Yablunivka toward southwestern Kostyantynivka, aiming to breach the H‑20 Donetsk‑Kramatorsk highway
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian troops launched a new assault from Yablunivka toward southwestern Kostyantynivka, aiming to breach the H‑20 Donetsk‑Kramatorsk highway
Russian forces infiltrated west of Kostyantynivka, reaching the village of Illinivka and attempting a foothold in the city’s western districts
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian forces infiltrated west of Kostyantynivka, reaching the village of Illinivka and attempting a foothold in the city’s western districts
ISW notes Russian units infiltrating west of Kostyantynivka (Illinivka) and reaching the city’s zinc plant, marking the deepest penetration to date
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%3%
ISW notes Russian units infiltrating west of Kostyantynivka (Illinivka) and reaching the city’s zinc plant, marking the deepest penetration to date
ISW noted a surge in Russian drone activity and renewed assaults on Kostyantynivka’s outskirts, raising doubts about Ukrainian control
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%1%
ISW noted a surge in Russian drone activity and renewed assaults on Kostyantynivka’s outskirts, raising doubts about Ukrainian control
Ukrainian brigades report destroying two Russian tanks and three ATVs during a mechanised assault on Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%4%
Ukrainian brigades report destroying two Russian tanks and three ATVs during a mechanised assault on Kostyantynivka
Russian milbloggers claimed the capture of the trench system in eastern Kostyantynivka, linking Russian forces to the T‑0504 highway and tightening the siege
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%2%
Russian milbloggers claimed the capture of the trench system in eastern Kostyantynivka, linking Russian forces to the T‑0504 highway and tightening the siege
Critical Threats assessment documented intensive Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka (including Ivanopillya, Kleban‑Byk, and surrounding villages) and noted Ukrainian
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%2%
Critical Threats assessment documented intensive Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka (including Ivanopillya, Kleban‑Byk, and surrounding villages) and noted Ukrainian counter‑attacks, reinforcing expectations of a near‑term capture
Russian offensive pushes attacks near Kostyantynivka (north, east, southeast, south) on both 30 and 31 December, indicating fresh offensive momentum
December 31, 2026 jumps to 95%6%
Russian offensive pushes attacks near Kostyantynivka (north, east, southeast, south) on both 30 and 31 December, indicating fresh offensive momentum
Russian offensive campaign assessment reported fresh attacks north and east of Kostyantynivka on 30‑31 December, with mil‑bloggers noting Russian forces pushing into several
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Russian offensive campaign assessment reported fresh attacks north and east of Kostyantynivka on 30‑31 December, with mil‑bloggers noting Russian forces pushing into several nearby villages
Critical Threats reported Russian attacks on villages north and east of Kostyantynivka (including Kindrativka, Oleksiivka and Minkivka) on 30‑31 Dec 2025, signalling intensified
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%4%
Critical Threats reported Russian attacks on villages north and east of Kostyantynivka (including Kindrativka, Oleksiivka and Minkivka) on 30‑31 Dec 2025, signalling intensified pressure on the city
Critical Threats assessment reports Russian forces attacking north, east and south of Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31, with new assaults near Illinivka and Markove
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Critical Threats assessment reports Russian forces attacking north, east and south of Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31, with new assaults near Illinivka and Markove
Critical Threats notes fresh Russian attacks on Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages on 30‑31 Dec, but Ukrainian sources claim limited progress and strong counter‑attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%3%
Critical Threats notes fresh Russian attacks on Kostyantynivka and surrounding villages on 30‑31 Dec, but Ukrainian sources claim limited progress and strong counter‑attacks
Critical Threats assessment notes Russian attacks north of Sumy and around Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31, with mil‑bloggers claiming Ukrainian counter‑attacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%4%
Critical Threats assessment notes Russian attacks north of Sumy and around Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31, with mil‑bloggers claiming Ukrainian counter‑attacks
Medvedev claims Russian forces now control 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier 50 % claim by Gerasimov
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
Medvedev claims Russian forces now control 40‑45 % of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier 50 % claim by Gerasimov
ISW reports Russian forces now control “more than half of the buildings” in Kostyantynivka and are rapidly advancing toward Slovyansk
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
ISW reports Russian forces now control “more than half of the buildings” in Kostyantynivka and are rapidly advancing toward Slovyansk
Russian troops switch to single‑man assaults and fight in snow, rain and fog, expanding the “kill zone” around Kostyantynivka
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
Russian troops switch to single‑man assaults and fight in snow, rain and fog, expanding the “kill zone” around Kostyantynivka
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces marginally advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka;
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
drones and missiles continue heavy strikes
Reuters photo shows Ukrainian 49th assault battalion operating under anti‑drone nets in Kostyantynivka, indicating intensified defence as Russian gains stall
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Reuters photo shows Ukrainian 49th assault battalion operating under anti‑drone nets in Kostyantynivka, indicating intensified defence as Russian gains stall
ISW reports Russian forces control more than half the buildings in Kostyantynivka and are rapidly advancing toward Slovyansk after recent Siversk seizure
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%5%
ISW reports Russian forces control more than half the buildings in Kostyantynivka and are rapidly advancing toward Slovyansk after recent Siversk seizure
Ukrainian 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade fires Bohdana howitzers at Russian troops near Kostyantynivka, signalling intensified fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Ukrainian 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade fires Bohdana howitzers at Russian troops near Kostyantynivka, signalling intensified fighting
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev announced that Russian forces had taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to seize most of the city by
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev announced that Russian forces had taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to seize most of the city by mid‑December 2025
ISW reported Russian forces seized the village of Ivanopillya southeast of Kostyantynivka and claimed control of nearby settlements, with Medvedev stating Moscow aims to capture
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%2%
ISW reported Russian forces seized the village of Ivanopillya southeast of Kostyantynivka and claimed control of nearby settlements, with Medvedev stating Moscow aims to capture most of the city by mid‑December
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russia has taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russia has taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev said Russian troops had seized eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to capture most of the city by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev said Russian troops had seized eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to capture most of the city by mid‑December 2025
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russia has taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russia has taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December
Russian commander Sergei Medvedev says Russian forces have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and are clearing the centre, promising to seize most of the city by
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian commander Sergei Medvedev says Russian forces have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and are clearing the centre, promising to seize most of the city by mid‑December
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russian troops have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russian troops have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December 2025
Russian assault groups entered the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, marking the first confirmed infiltration into the city
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Russian assault groups entered the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, marking the first confirmed infiltration into the city
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes