Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 64.5% implied probability to win Hungary's next parliamentary election, ahead of Fidesz-KDNP at 35.5%, driven by recent polls showing TISZA leading national vote share by 5-10 points in surveys from Medián, Publicus, and Závecz Research over the past month. Péter Magyar's TISZA party has surged since its strong 30% performance in June's European Parliament elections, fueled by anti-corruption momentum, large rallies drawing tens of thousands, and public discontent with inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and internal opposition challenges, though Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats—means district-level dynamics and turnout could tip the balance toward a plurality victory for either in the April 2026 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Hungría
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Hungría
TISZA 65%
Fidesz-KDNP 36%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$40,794,956 Vol.
$40,794,956 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
65%
Fidesz-KDNP
36%
Momentum
<1%
DK
<1%
LMP
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
KDNP
<1%
TISZA 65%
Fidesz-KDNP 36%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$40,794,956 Vol.
$40,794,956 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
$681,575 Vol.
65%
Fidesz-KDNP
$927,868 Vol.
36%
Momentum
$510,757 Vol.
<1%
DK
$2,087,715 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$14,321,357 Vol.
<1%
MSZP
$0 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$404,765 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$7,086,484 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$14,774,436 Vol.
<1%
KDNP
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 64.5% implied probability to win Hungary's next parliamentary election, ahead of Fidesz-KDNP at 35.5%, driven by recent polls showing TISZA leading national vote share by 5-10 points in surveys from Medián, Publicus, and Závecz Research over the past month. Péter Magyar's TISZA party has surged since its strong 30% performance in June's European Parliament elections, fueled by anti-corruption momentum, large rallies drawing tens of thousands, and public discontent with inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and internal opposition challenges, though Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats—means district-level dynamics and turnout could tip the balance toward a plurality victory for either in the April 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Volumen
$40,794,956Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 64.5% implied probability to win Hungary's next parliamentary election, ahead of Fidesz-KDNP at 35.5%, driven by recent polls showing TISZA leading national vote share by 5-10 points in surveys from Medián, Publicus, and Závecz Research over the past month. Péter Magyar's TISZA party has surged since its strong 30% performance in June's European Parliament elections, fueled by anti-corruption momentum, large rallies drawing tens of thousands, and public discontent with inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and internal opposition challenges, though Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats—means district-level dynamics and turnout could tip the balance toward a plurality victory for either in the April 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volumen
$40,794,956Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 64.5% implied probability to win Hungary's next parliamentary election, ahead of Fidesz-KDNP at 35.5%, driven by recent polls showing TISZA leading national vote share by 5-10 points in surveys from Medián, Publicus, and Závecz Research over the past month. Péter Magyar's TISZA party has surged since its strong 30% performance in June's European Parliament elections, fueled by anti-corruption momentum, large rallies drawing tens of thousands, and public discontent with inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and internal opposition challenges, though Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 single-member districts and 93 proportional seats—means district-level dynamics and turnout could tip the balance toward a plurality victory for either in the April 2026 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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