Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and others conducted in early April 2026 show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios by 2–9 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, but second-round matchups are deadlocked or favor Flávio by slim margins like 46–45% or 48–43%, mirroring Polymarket's trader consensus with Flávio at 40.8% implied probability versus Lula's 39.5%. Lula's approval has slipped to 44% amid 51% disapproval, eroding his incumbency edge in this polarized contest ahead of the October 4 first round. A Supreme Court-ordered probe into Flávio for alleged defamation of Lula, unsealed April 15, introduces legal risk without yet denting his momentum from the right-wing base. Separation could arise from economic data, endorsements, or scandals before candidate registrations in August.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 40.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
$53,425,869 Vol.
$53,425,869 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 40.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
$53,425,869 Vol.
$53,425,869 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and others conducted in early April 2026 show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios by 2–9 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, but second-round matchups are deadlocked or favor Flávio by slim margins like 46–45% or 48–43%, mirroring Polymarket's trader consensus with Flávio at 40.8% implied probability versus Lula's 39.5%. Lula's approval has slipped to 44% amid 51% disapproval, eroding his incumbency edge in this polarized contest ahead of the October 4 first round. A Supreme Court-ordered probe into Flávio for alleged defamation of Lula, unsealed April 15, introduces legal risk without yet denting his momentum from the right-wing base. Separation could arise from economic data, endorsements, or scandals before candidate registrations in August.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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