Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%

Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.

Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%

A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%

Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, slightly increasing his political visibility and market support ahead of the presidential election.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%

The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which was seen as a response to his health and legal situation, affecting market perceptions of his political future.

Lula’s poll share hits low of 35 % amid economic slowdown

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 35%5%

A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.

Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%

Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%

The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that kept Bolsonaro in the political spotlight but did not improve his electoral prospects.

Bolsonaro briefly hospitalized after falling in prison

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%

Bolsonaro was temporarily hospitalized for medical tests after a fall in prison, raising concerns about his health and affecting market perceptions of his and his son’s candidacies.

Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro’s transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%4%

The Supreme Court moved Bolsonaro to a more comfortable prison cell with outdoor access, addressing his health and detention conditions, which influenced market views on his ongoing political influence.

Fernando Haddad resigns as finance minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad rises to 3%1%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, increasing his political profile and positioning him as a potential successor to Lula, slightly boosting his market price.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%

Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.

Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%13%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent surgery while serving his prison sentence, highlighting his health issues and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%

Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.

Flávio Bolsonaro announced as Liberal Party's presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%11%

Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate, significantly increasing Flávio's market support as he became the main challenger to Lula da Silva.

Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his family.

Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.

Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil’s finance minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, signaling his political ambitions and potential as Lula’s successor, which affected his market support and Lula’s dynamics.

Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%11%

Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, boosting Flávio's market price significantly as he became the main challenger to Lula.

Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time

President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's legal challenges and strengthening Lula's position in the election market, which helped stabilize Lula's price around 53%.

Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro's prison time

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his 2023 coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's tough stance on Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.

Bolsonaro returns to jail after hernia surgery in Brasilia

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%5%

After undergoing double hernia surgery, Bolsonaro was released from hospital and returned to jail, maintaining his incarceration status and limiting his political activity, which influenced market perceptions and kept his family's candidacies under scrutiny.

Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance

Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%

A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.

Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Jair Bolsonaro to larger prison cell with outdoor area

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%

The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a more comfortable prison cell with better facilities, which was part of ongoing legal and health developments affecting his political viability and indirectly influencing market perceptions of his and his family's electoral prospects.

Jair Bolsonaro appoints son Flávio Bolsonaro as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro, while hospitalized for hernia surgery, officially appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for his party, signaling a direct political challenge to incumbent Lula. This announcement caused a sharp increase in Flávio Bolsonaro's market price from 1% to 13% within days, reflecting renewed investor confidence in his candidacy.

Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%

Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.

Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%

Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.

Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery

Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%

With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.

Flávio Bolsonaro ramps up campaign after father returns to prison

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%8%

Following Jair Bolsonaro’s return to prison after his hernia operation, Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned actively on television, further raising his profile and pushing his probability up to 16 % by late December.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%

Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.

Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan

Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%

The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.

Flávio Bolsonaro named presidential candidate in Bolsonaro’s handwritten letter

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 8%6%

During a press conference before his father’s hernia surgery, Flávio Bolsonaro read a handwritten letter in which Jair Bolsonaro formally appointed him as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, sending Flávio’s market odds soaring from 2 % to 8 % in a single day.

Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasilia hospital

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%

Bolsonaro underwent a medically necessary double hernia surgery, which temporarily removed him from active political engagement and raised concerns about his health, impacting market confidence in his and his family's electoral prospects.

Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil's finance minister to run for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%

Fernando Haddad resigned from his position as finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop from 52% to 2%.

Electoral Institute corrects Renan Santos poll from 50 % to 4 %

Renan Santos plunges to 7%43%

A poll released by the Brazilian Electoral Institute showed Renan Santos at 50 % support early October, but a subsequent corrected poll a week later placed him at just 4 %, explaining the sharp decline from 50 % to 7 % in the market.

Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%

Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.

President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%

Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.

Lula vetoes bill that would ease Bolsonaro’s prison sentence

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 58%3%

President Lula vetoed a Senate‑passed bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s prison term. The move was presented as a defence of democracy and boosted Lula’s standing among voters, lifting his market price from 55 % to 58 % over the following week.

Michelle Bolsonaro’s visibility drops amid father’s prison health saga

Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 6%46%

After Jair Bolsonaro’s health crisis and the media focus on his incarceration, Michelle Bolsonaro’s public appearances and statements were sharply criticized, causing her market share to tumble from 52 % to 6 % within two days.

Finance Minister Haddad resigns to launch bid for São Paulo governor

Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%

Finance Minister Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, removing him from the presidential race and causing his market probability to plunge from 52 % to 3 % within days.