Skip to main content
icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar

icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar

Flávio Bolsonaro 65%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%

Renan Santos 5.9%

Romeu Zema 3.5%

Polymarket

$3,501,428 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 65%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%

Renan Santos 5.9%

Romeu Zema 3.5%

Polymarket

$3,501,428 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$55,237 Vol.

65%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$66,406 Vol.

16%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$993,982 Vol.

6%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$253,746 Vol.

4%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$651,184 Vol.

3%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$55,924 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$123,229 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$287,006 Vol.

1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$65,140 Vol.

1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$29,795 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$111,010 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$642,602 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$77,327 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$48,371 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$40,470 Vol.

<1%

icon for Persona L

Persona L

$0 Vol.

<1%

icon for Persona K

Persona K

$0 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest (May 13) and Quaest (May 8-11), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 38-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro solidly in second at 33-37%, far ahead of governors Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado (both ~4%) or Renan Santos (~2%). This two-candidate dominance amid a fragmented opposition field drives trader consensus pricing Flávio Bolsonaro as the overwhelming favorite for second place at 64.5% implied probability ahead of Brazil's October 4 first round, reflecting his role as the primary right-wing challenger despite a May 13 leaked audio linking him to a banking scandal. Lula's lower 15.5% odds for second underscore his frontrunner status, bolstered by recent debt relief announcements, though a tightening race remains possible.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,501,428
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Genial/Quaest (May 13) and Quaest (May 8-11), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 38-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro solidly in second at 33-37%, far ahead of governors Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado (both ~4%) or Renan Santos (~2%). This two-candidate dominance amid a fragmented opposition field drives trader consensus pricing Flávio Bolsonaro as the overwhelming favorite for second place at 64.5% implied probability ahead of Brazil's October 4 first round, reflecting his role as the primary right-wing challenger despite a May 13 leaked audio linking him to a banking scandal. Lula's lower 15.5% odds for second underscore his frontrunner status, bolstered by recent debt relief announcements, though a tightening race remains possible.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,501,428
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 17 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 65%, seguido de "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 16%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 65¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 65% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" ha generado $3.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 11, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar", explora los 17 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" es "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 65%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 65% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 16%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.