**Recent polls have tightened Brazil's 2026 presidential race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.** An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey released March 25 showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead 47.6%-46.6% in a runoff simulation, while Datafolha's March 7 poll indicated a technical tie, reflecting the challenger's gains from his father's endorsement and regional strength in the Southeast. Lula maintains a slim first-round lead in national surveys around 42-45% to Flávio's 38-42%, implying a sub-5% gap if no candidate exceeds 50%, with fragmented support for alternatives like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior keeping the top two close. Upcoming regional primaries and economic data could further shift odds in this contested matchup.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPrimera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.5%
$13,864 Vol.
$13,864 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
9%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
26%
Victoria de Renan Santos
6%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
3%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
3%
Otro
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 8.5%
$13,864 Vol.
$13,864 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,547 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,310 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$1,702 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,560 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$675 Vol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$678 Vol.
9%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,430 Vol.
26%
Victoria de Renan Santos
$808 Vol.
6%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
$521 Vol.
3%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
$808 Vol.
3%
Otro
$825 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polls have tightened Brazil's 2026 presidential race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.** An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey released March 25 showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead 47.6%-46.6% in a runoff simulation, while Datafolha's March 7 poll indicated a technical tie, reflecting the challenger's gains from his father's endorsement and regional strength in the Southeast. Lula maintains a slim first-round lead in national surveys around 42-45% to Flávio's 38-42%, implying a sub-5% gap if no candidate exceeds 50%, with fragmented support for alternatives like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior keeping the top two close. Upcoming regional primaries and economic data could further shift odds in this contested matchup.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$13,864Fecha de finalización
Oct 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polls have tightened Brazil's 2026 presidential race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.** An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey released March 25 showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead 47.6%-46.6% in a runoff simulation, while Datafolha's March 7 poll indicated a technical tie, reflecting the challenger's gains from his father's endorsement and regional strength in the Southeast. Lula maintains a slim first-round lead in national surveys around 42-45% to Flávio's 38-42%, implying a sub-5% gap if no candidate exceeds 50%, with fragmented support for alternatives like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior keeping the top two close. Upcoming regional primaries and economic data could further shift odds in this contested matchup.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$13,864Fecha de finalización
Oct 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Recent polls have tightened Brazil's 2026 presidential race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, driving trader consensus toward narrow victory margins for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.** An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey released March 25 showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead 47.6%-46.6% in a runoff simulation, while Datafolha's March 7 poll indicated a technical tie, reflecting the challenger's gains from his father's endorsement and regional strength in the Southeast. Lula maintains a slim first-round lead in national surveys around 42-45% to Flávio's 38-42%, implying a sub-5% gap if no candidate exceeds 50%, with fragmented support for alternatives like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior keeping the top two close. Upcoming regional primaries and economic data could further shift odds in this contested matchup.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes