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Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria

Market icon

Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria

Lula da Silva <5% 37%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.9%

Polymarket

$13,858 Vol.

Lula da Silva <5% 37%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.9%

Polymarket

$13,858 Vol.

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Lula da Silva 15%+

$3,547 Vol.

6%

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Lula da Silva 10-15%

$1,310 Vol.

3%

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Lula da Silva 5-10%

$1,702 Vol.

18%

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Lula da Silva <5%

$1,558 Vol.

37%

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Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

$675 Vol.

5%

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Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

$678 Vol.

8%

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Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$1,426 Vol.

26%

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Victoria de Renan Santos

$808 Vol.

6%

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Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas

$521 Vol.

2%

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Victoria de Ratinho Júnior

$808 Vol.

3%

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Otro

$825 Vol.

4%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Lula da Silva <5%" con 37%, seguido de "Flávio Bolsonaro <5%" con 26%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 37¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" ha generado $13.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 11, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" es "Lula da Silva <5%" con 37%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flávio Bolsonaro <5%" con 26%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.