Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPrimera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.9%
$13,858 Vol.
$13,858 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
26%
Victoria de Renan Santos
6%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
2%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
3%
Otro
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.9%
$13,858 Vol.
$13,858 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,547 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,310 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$1,702 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,558 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$675 Vol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$678 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,426 Vol.
26%
Victoria de Renan Santos
$808 Vol.
6%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
$521 Vol.
2%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
$808 Vol.
3%
Otro
$825 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$13,858Fecha de finalización
Oct 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$13,858Fecha de finalización
Oct 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Paraná Pesquisas, Datafolha, and Quaest in mid-September 2024 show incumbent President Lula da Silva holding a slim 1-3 point lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in hypothetical first-round matchups, with margins consistently under 5% and within error bands, fueling trader consensus at 37% for Lula <5% victory margin. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his recent candidacy launch as a bolsonarista standard-bearer polling 5-8%, potentially consolidating right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing ineligibility appeal. Lower probabilities for wider Lula margins or other victories like Ratinho Júnior or Renan Santos align with their single-digit showings, as economic headwinds and regional strengths keep the race competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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