Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling trends for the September 2026 Berlin state election show a fragmented contest, with the CDU holding a narrow lead amid gains by the AfD on immigration and security concerns, while the Greens, Linke, and SPD compete for left-leaning voters in the capital's urban base. Trader consensus reflects this multiparty dynamic, where no single party commands a clear path to the largest share without coalition negotiations, and small shifts in turnout or issue salience could reorder the field. National momentum from the CDU-led federal government and parallel state contests has boosted the CDU locally, yet AfD advances and stable support for the Greens and Linke maintain pressure on the top spots. Scheduled campaign events and further surveys in the coming months may widen or close these gaps before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling trends for the September 2026 Berlin state election show a fragmented contest, with the CDU holding a narrow lead amid gains by the AfD on immigration and security concerns, while the Greens, Linke, and SPD compete for left-leaning voters in the capital's urban base. Trader consensus reflects this multiparty dynamic, where no single party commands a clear path to the largest share without coalition negotiations, and small shifts in turnout or issue salience could reorder the field. National momentum from the CDU-led federal government and parallel state contests has boosted the CDU locally, yet AfD advances and stable support for the Greens and Linke maintain pressure on the top spots. Scheduled campaign events and further surveys in the coming months may widen or close these gaps before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 20 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging to 42% in Saxony, far ahead of CDU
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony showed the AfD with 42% support, doubling the CDU's 21%. While this is a different state, the AfD's strong performance in eastern Germany likely influenced market perceptions of the party's prospects in Berlin, contributing to AfD price increases and CDU declines.
May 19 2026
AfD surges in Berlin polls, nearing CDU support levels
AfD jumps to 27%8%
Mid-May polling data showed a significant rise in AfD support to around 27-28%, closing the gap with CDU and causing a sharp increase in AfD market prices, while CDU prices dropped sharply.
May 18 2026
Green party surges in Berlin election polls, challenging CDU lead
Grüne jumps to 24%7%
In mid-May 2026, the Green party's polling surged to over 20%, narrowing the gap with the CDU and reflecting increased voter support. This caused a decline in CDU's market price and a rise for the Greens, indicating a more competitive race.
May 18 2026
Grüne reach peak polling at 24% in Berlin, challenging CDU dominance
Grüne rises to 24%3%
By mid-May 2026, the Greens peaked at 24% in polls, reflecting increased voter support and putting pressure on the CDU, which was declining in market price, indicating a more competitive race.
May 17 2026
AfD gains momentum in Berlin election market amid rising support
AfD jumps to 25%6%
In May 2026, AfD's market price rose sharply from 19% to 25%, reflecting increased voter support and momentum. This may be linked to broader regional trends and voter concerns on immigration and security, boosting AfD's prospects in Berlin.
May 17 2026
Polls show Grüne surging to 25%, challenging CDU's lead in Berlin election
Grüne rises to 25%4%
Recent polls indicated a surge in support for the Grüne party, rising to 25%, which caused a decline in CDU's market price from 36% to 32% and a rise in Grüne's price, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
May 13 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging in Saxony with 42% support
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD reaching a record 42%, far ahead of CDU at 24%. Although this is a different state, the surge of AfD in eastern Germany likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price increase and CDU's decline in Berlin due to broader regional trends.
May 12 2026
Federal polling shows CDU and SPD decline, AfD rising nationally
AfD jumps to 26%6%
Federal polls in May 2026 indicated a decline in support for the CDU and SPD, with AfD rising to second place nationally. This broader political context likely influenced Berlin market prices, contributing to the decline in CDU and SPD prices and the rise of AfD.
May 8 2026
AfD surges to 19% in Berlin polls, overtaking SPD and Greens
AfD jumps to 19%7%
In early May 2026, polls showed a surge in AfD support to 19%, surpassing SPD and Greens, which increased market optimism for AfD reflected in price rising from 12% to 19%.
May 8 2026
AfD gains in polls, rising to second place behind CDU in Berlin election race
AfD jumps to 19%7%
Polls showed AfD increasing support to 19%, narrowing the gap with CDU, which contributed to AfD's market price rising from 12% to 19%, reflecting growing voter support and a more competitive election landscape.
May 7 2026
Poll shows AfD surging in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing absolute majority
AfD jumps to 26%7%
A poll by Infratest dimap on May 7, 2026, showed AfD surging to 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing an absolute majority. While this is outside Berlin, the AfD's national momentum likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price rise in Berlin markets during May 2026.
May 7 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU at 26%
AfD jumps to 26%6%
The May 7, 2026 Infratest dimap poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD increasing to 41%, with CDU declining to 26%, reinforcing AfD's momentum and impacting Berlin market perceptions of AfD's rising influence nationally.
May 7 2026
New polls show CDU still leading but with shrinking margin
CDU dips to 35%3%
Early May polls confirmed CDU's lead at around 20-23%, but the gap to AfD, Grüne, and Linke narrowed significantly, reflecting a highly competitive race and causing market prices for CDU to drop and others to gain.
Apr 24 2026
Resignation of Berlin's Culture Senator linked to CDU amid funding scandal
CDU drops to 51%11%
The resignation of Sarah Wedl-Wilson, a non-party member serving for CDU, over illegal funding allocations, negatively impacted CDU's public image and contributed to a decline in their polling and market prices in late April.
Apr 23 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election but coalition majority at risk
CDU dips to 52%3%
Polls in April 2026 indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in Berlin with around 20%, but the incumbent coalition (CDU and SPD) was projected to lose its parliamentary majority. This uncertainty contributed to volatility and decline in CDU and SPD market prices.
Apr 22 2026
Poll shows CDU narrowly leading with AfD, Grüne, and Linke close behind
CDU drops to 43%13%
A new poll indicated a tight race with CDU at 19%, and AfD, Grüne, and Linke all at 18%, causing a drop in CDU market price from 56% to 43% and gains for AfD and Grüne. This reflected growing competition and uncertainty about the election outcome.
Apr 22 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly leading with 19-21%, AfD and Grüne close behind
CDU plunges to 40%16%
An April 2026 BerlinTrend poll indicated a tight race with CDU leading narrowly at around 19-21%, closely followed by AfD and Grüne at 15-18%, reflecting a fragmented field and causing market volatility with CDU prices declining and AfD and Grüne gaining.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU still leading Berlin election with 23%
CDU rises to 60%4%
The Civey poll on March 26, 2026, indicated the CDU maintaining a slight lead at 23%, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne closely contesting. This poll reflected a stable but competitive race, influencing market prices to remain relatively steady for these parties.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 23%
CDU surges to 26%26%
A March poll showed CDU maintaining leadership with slight gains, while AfD and Die Linke gained ground.
Feb 28 2026
Bundestag election polls show CDU and AfD neck and neck around 25%
CDU dips to 54%3%
Late February 2026 polls for the Bundestag election showed CDU and AfD both around 25%, with SPD and Greens trailing. This parity between CDU and AfD in national polls likely affected Berlin market prices, reflecting uncertainty and competition between these parties.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll confirms CDU lead with 22%, AfD at 17% in Berlin election
CDU dips to 53%3%
The INSA poll on February 24, 2026, reaffirmed CDU's position as the leading party with 22%, while AfD held 17%. This poll maintained market expectations of a CDU victory but indicated a competitive field, affecting price adjustments for CDU and AfD.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU dips to 56%2%
The INSA poll released on February 24, 2026, showed the CDU maintaining its lead at 22%, with AfD and SPD close behind. This poll contributed to market stability for CDU and AfD prices, reflecting ongoing competition among the top parties in Berlin.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 0%28%
A second major opinion poll confirmed CDU as frontrunner, reinforcing the market's initial CDU bias.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU lead in Berlin with 22%
CDU rises to 58%4%
The Civey poll published on January 23, 2026, reaffirmed the CDU's position as the leading party in Berlin with 22%, closely followed by Grüne and Die Linke. This reinforced market confidence in CDU's lead while showing a competitive multi-party race, affecting price movements for CDU and other parties.
Jan 15 2026
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll
AfD rises to 7%2%
In early 2026, the AfD extended its lead over the CDU in nationwide opinion polls, signaling growing support for AfD ahead of state elections including Berlin. This contributed to a rise in AfD's market price and a decline for CDU, reflecting shifting voter sentiment.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU rises to 54%4%
A January 2026 poll by Infratest dimap indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in the upcoming Berlin state election with 22%, followed by Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD. This poll likely supported the CDU's relatively high market price early in the analysis window.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 28%22%
A major opinion poll showed CDU as frontrunner, setting initial market expectations for a CDU-led outcome.
Jan 12 2026
Criticism of CDU Mayor Kai Wegner's crisis management after Berlin power outage
CDU drops to 54%8%
The CDU faced public criticism for its handling of a major power outage in Berlin's southwest, which contributed to a decline in CDU's market price from 62% to 54%. This event signaled voter dissatisfaction impacting CDU's lead.
Jan 12 2026
Grüne gains in Berlin polls, reaching 12% support
Grüne jumps to 12%7%
In mid-January 2026, polls showed a notable increase in support for the Grüne party, rising to 12%, signaling growing voter interest and causing a modest market uptick for the Greens.
Dec 10 2025
CDU emerges as clear frontrunner in Berlin polls with 20.2% support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Polls in early December 2025 showed the CDU leading with around 20.2% support, establishing it as the favorite to win the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election. This boosted market confidence in the CDU's chances, reflected in their price rising to around 60%.
Dec 4 2025
Federal Constitutional Court rejects BSW recount appeal after 2025 election
BSW plunges to 1%49%
Following the 2025 German federal election, the BSW party requested a full recount citing overseas voting problems, but the Bundestag's election review committee rejected the request on December 4, 2025. This legal setback diminished BSW's perceived viability, reflected in the market price dropping to near zero.
Dec 3 2025
CDU leads Berlin polls but faces declining support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Early December polls showed CDU as the frontrunner with around 25% support, but signs of weakening momentum emerged, causing market prices for CDU to fluctuate. This set the tone for a competitive election with no clear dominant party.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin election scheduled for September 20, 2026
The official election date was confirmed, setting the timeline for the prediction market analysis.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling trends for the September 2026 Berlin state election show a fragmented contest, with the CDU holding a narrow lead amid gains by the AfD on immigration and security concerns, while the Greens, Linke, and SPD compete for left-leaning voters in the capital's urban base. Trader consensus reflects this multiparty dynamic, where no single party commands a clear path to the largest share without coalition negotiations, and small shifts in turnout or issue salience could reorder the field. National momentum from the CDU-led federal government and parallel state contests has boosted the CDU locally, yet AfD advances and stable support for the Greens and Linke maintain pressure on the top spots. Scheduled campaign events and further surveys in the coming months may widen or close these gaps before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling trends for the September 2026 Berlin state election show a fragmented contest, with the CDU holding a narrow lead amid gains by the AfD on immigration and security concerns, while the Greens, Linke, and SPD compete for left-leaning voters in the capital's urban base. Trader consensus reflects this multiparty dynamic, where no single party commands a clear path to the largest share without coalition negotiations, and small shifts in turnout or issue salience could reorder the field. National momentum from the CDU-led federal government and parallel state contests has boosted the CDU locally, yet AfD advances and stable support for the Greens and Linke maintain pressure on the top spots. Scheduled campaign events and further surveys in the coming months may widen or close these gaps before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
May 20 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging to 42% in Saxony, far ahead of CDU
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony showed the AfD with 42% support, doubling the CDU's 21%. While this is a different state, the AfD's strong performance in eastern Germany likely influenced market perceptions of the party's prospects in Berlin, contributing to AfD price increases and CDU declines.
May 19 2026
AfD surges in Berlin polls, nearing CDU support levels
AfD jumps to 27%8%
Mid-May polling data showed a significant rise in AfD support to around 27-28%, closing the gap with CDU and causing a sharp increase in AfD market prices, while CDU prices dropped sharply.
May 18 2026
Green party surges in Berlin election polls, challenging CDU lead
Grüne jumps to 24%7%
In mid-May 2026, the Green party's polling surged to over 20%, narrowing the gap with the CDU and reflecting increased voter support. This caused a decline in CDU's market price and a rise for the Greens, indicating a more competitive race.
May 18 2026
Grüne reach peak polling at 24% in Berlin, challenging CDU dominance
Grüne rises to 24%3%
By mid-May 2026, the Greens peaked at 24% in polls, reflecting increased voter support and putting pressure on the CDU, which was declining in market price, indicating a more competitive race.
May 17 2026
AfD gains momentum in Berlin election market amid rising support
AfD jumps to 25%6%
In May 2026, AfD's market price rose sharply from 19% to 25%, reflecting increased voter support and momentum. This may be linked to broader regional trends and voter concerns on immigration and security, boosting AfD's prospects in Berlin.
May 17 2026
Polls show Grüne surging to 25%, challenging CDU's lead in Berlin election
Grüne rises to 25%4%
Recent polls indicated a surge in support for the Grüne party, rising to 25%, which caused a decline in CDU's market price from 36% to 32% and a rise in Grüne's price, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
May 13 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging in Saxony with 42% support
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD reaching a record 42%, far ahead of CDU at 24%. Although this is a different state, the surge of AfD in eastern Germany likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price increase and CDU's decline in Berlin due to broader regional trends.
May 12 2026
Federal polling shows CDU and SPD decline, AfD rising nationally
AfD jumps to 26%6%
Federal polls in May 2026 indicated a decline in support for the CDU and SPD, with AfD rising to second place nationally. This broader political context likely influenced Berlin market prices, contributing to the decline in CDU and SPD prices and the rise of AfD.
May 8 2026
AfD surges to 19% in Berlin polls, overtaking SPD and Greens
AfD jumps to 19%7%
In early May 2026, polls showed a surge in AfD support to 19%, surpassing SPD and Greens, which increased market optimism for AfD reflected in price rising from 12% to 19%.
May 8 2026
AfD gains in polls, rising to second place behind CDU in Berlin election race
AfD jumps to 19%7%
Polls showed AfD increasing support to 19%, narrowing the gap with CDU, which contributed to AfD's market price rising from 12% to 19%, reflecting growing voter support and a more competitive election landscape.
May 7 2026
Poll shows AfD surging in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing absolute majority
AfD jumps to 26%7%
A poll by Infratest dimap on May 7, 2026, showed AfD surging to 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing an absolute majority. While this is outside Berlin, the AfD's national momentum likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price rise in Berlin markets during May 2026.
May 7 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU at 26%
AfD jumps to 26%6%
The May 7, 2026 Infratest dimap poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD increasing to 41%, with CDU declining to 26%, reinforcing AfD's momentum and impacting Berlin market perceptions of AfD's rising influence nationally.
May 7 2026
New polls show CDU still leading but with shrinking margin
CDU dips to 35%3%
Early May polls confirmed CDU's lead at around 20-23%, but the gap to AfD, Grüne, and Linke narrowed significantly, reflecting a highly competitive race and causing market prices for CDU to drop and others to gain.
Apr 24 2026
Resignation of Berlin's Culture Senator linked to CDU amid funding scandal
CDU drops to 51%11%
The resignation of Sarah Wedl-Wilson, a non-party member serving for CDU, over illegal funding allocations, negatively impacted CDU's public image and contributed to a decline in their polling and market prices in late April.
Apr 23 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election but coalition majority at risk
CDU dips to 52%3%
Polls in April 2026 indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in Berlin with around 20%, but the incumbent coalition (CDU and SPD) was projected to lose its parliamentary majority. This uncertainty contributed to volatility and decline in CDU and SPD market prices.
Apr 22 2026
Poll shows CDU narrowly leading with AfD, Grüne, and Linke close behind
CDU drops to 43%13%
A new poll indicated a tight race with CDU at 19%, and AfD, Grüne, and Linke all at 18%, causing a drop in CDU market price from 56% to 43% and gains for AfD and Grüne. This reflected growing competition and uncertainty about the election outcome.
Apr 22 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly leading with 19-21%, AfD and Grüne close behind
CDU plunges to 40%16%
An April 2026 BerlinTrend poll indicated a tight race with CDU leading narrowly at around 19-21%, closely followed by AfD and Grüne at 15-18%, reflecting a fragmented field and causing market volatility with CDU prices declining and AfD and Grüne gaining.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU still leading Berlin election with 23%
CDU rises to 60%4%
The Civey poll on March 26, 2026, indicated the CDU maintaining a slight lead at 23%, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne closely contesting. This poll reflected a stable but competitive race, influencing market prices to remain relatively steady for these parties.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 23%
CDU surges to 26%26%
A March poll showed CDU maintaining leadership with slight gains, while AfD and Die Linke gained ground.
Feb 28 2026
Bundestag election polls show CDU and AfD neck and neck around 25%
CDU dips to 54%3%
Late February 2026 polls for the Bundestag election showed CDU and AfD both around 25%, with SPD and Greens trailing. This parity between CDU and AfD in national polls likely affected Berlin market prices, reflecting uncertainty and competition between these parties.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll confirms CDU lead with 22%, AfD at 17% in Berlin election
CDU dips to 53%3%
The INSA poll on February 24, 2026, reaffirmed CDU's position as the leading party with 22%, while AfD held 17%. This poll maintained market expectations of a CDU victory but indicated a competitive field, affecting price adjustments for CDU and AfD.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU dips to 56%2%
The INSA poll released on February 24, 2026, showed the CDU maintaining its lead at 22%, with AfD and SPD close behind. This poll contributed to market stability for CDU and AfD prices, reflecting ongoing competition among the top parties in Berlin.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 0%28%
A second major opinion poll confirmed CDU as frontrunner, reinforcing the market's initial CDU bias.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU lead in Berlin with 22%
CDU rises to 58%4%
The Civey poll published on January 23, 2026, reaffirmed the CDU's position as the leading party in Berlin with 22%, closely followed by Grüne and Die Linke. This reinforced market confidence in CDU's lead while showing a competitive multi-party race, affecting price movements for CDU and other parties.
Jan 15 2026
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll
AfD rises to 7%2%
In early 2026, the AfD extended its lead over the CDU in nationwide opinion polls, signaling growing support for AfD ahead of state elections including Berlin. This contributed to a rise in AfD's market price and a decline for CDU, reflecting shifting voter sentiment.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU rises to 54%4%
A January 2026 poll by Infratest dimap indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in the upcoming Berlin state election with 22%, followed by Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD. This poll likely supported the CDU's relatively high market price early in the analysis window.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 28%22%
A major opinion poll showed CDU as frontrunner, setting initial market expectations for a CDU-led outcome.
Jan 12 2026
Criticism of CDU Mayor Kai Wegner's crisis management after Berlin power outage
CDU drops to 54%8%
The CDU faced public criticism for its handling of a major power outage in Berlin's southwest, which contributed to a decline in CDU's market price from 62% to 54%. This event signaled voter dissatisfaction impacting CDU's lead.
Jan 12 2026
Grüne gains in Berlin polls, reaching 12% support
Grüne jumps to 12%7%
In mid-January 2026, polls showed a notable increase in support for the Grüne party, rising to 12%, signaling growing voter interest and causing a modest market uptick for the Greens.
Dec 10 2025
CDU emerges as clear frontrunner in Berlin polls with 20.2% support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Polls in early December 2025 showed the CDU leading with around 20.2% support, establishing it as the favorite to win the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election. This boosted market confidence in the CDU's chances, reflected in their price rising to around 60%.
Dec 4 2025
Federal Constitutional Court rejects BSW recount appeal after 2025 election
BSW plunges to 1%49%
Following the 2025 German federal election, the BSW party requested a full recount citing overseas voting problems, but the Bundestag's election review committee rejected the request on December 4, 2025. This legal setback diminished BSW's perceived viability, reflected in the market price dropping to near zero.
Dec 3 2025
CDU leads Berlin polls but faces declining support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Early December polls showed CDU as the frontrunner with around 25% support, but signs of weakening momentum emerged, causing market prices for CDU to fluctuate. This set the tone for a competitive election with no clear dominant party.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin election scheduled for September 20, 2026
The official election date was confirmed, setting the timeline for the prediction market analysis.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 8 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "CDU" con 30%, seguido de "AfD" con 25%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 30¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín" ha generado $2.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 2, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín", explora los 8 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín" es "CDU" con 30%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "AfD" con 25%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $2.7 million operados en “Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 30¢ para "CDU" en el mercado "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 30% de que "CDU" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 30¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 70¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Sep 20, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín" tiene una discusión creciente de 6 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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