Trader consensus prices CDU as the frontrunner at 37% implied probability for plurality victory in Berlin's September 20 state election under mixed-member proportional representation, despite late April Infratest dimap and INSA polls showing CDU slipping to 19-21% amid Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's low 17% approval rating. Recent surveys reflect a four-way tie around 18% for challengers Grüne (up +2 points), Linke, and AfD, with SPD trailing at 14-17% as junior coalition partner, driving their clustered odds near 19% and SPD's 9.5%. Incumbency advantages from CDU's 2023 win (28%) and coalition stability underpin trader optimism for a CDU recovery, contrasting poll averages near 20%, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days beyond steady declines for the grand coalition.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoContinued negative polling and coalition instability keep CDU market
Ongoing political uncertainty and weak polling sustain low market confidence in CDU winning the Berlin election.
Greens reach 20% amid ongoing preparations for the 2026 Berlin state election, with polls showing them as a significant but not leading force, reflecting stabilized but limited optimism
Grüne rises to 20%4%
Polls and campaign activity indicate the Greens remain competitive but face strong challenges from CDU and SPD, capping their market.
Reports emerge of Saxony revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters under secret decree
AfD jumps to 19%7%
News of state-level restrictions on AfD supporters' gun rights highlighted political pushback and legal challenges, contributing to
Interne Krise beim BSW: Mitglieder kritisieren Parteiführung scharf
Eine öffentliche Abrechnung mit der Parteispitze und eine Kultur der Abwertung innerhalb des BSW wurden bekannt, was das negative Bild der Partei verstärkte und den Preis auf Null drückte.
Die Linke announces a coalition‑talks initiative with the Greens, lifting its poll to 11 % and causing a modest
Linke jumps to 23%10%
Die Linke announces a coalition‑talks initiative with the Greens, lifting its poll to 11 % and causing a modest
New Infratest Dimap poll shows CDU support in Berlin falling to 19%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition
CDU drops to 37%10%
The poor polling result confirmed a significant loss of voter confidence, driving the market
Greens recover to 16% as Cem Özdemir distances himself from leftist positions and emphasizes economic opportunities in climate policy, appealing to moderate voters
Grüne rises to 16%3%
Özdemir's pragmatic campaign approach in Baden-Württemberg reassured some investors about the Greens' electability in Berlin, improving their market standing.
CDU support drops sharply following the resignation of CDU-affiliated Berlin culture senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson amid a funding scandal
CDU drops to 63%9%
The scandal and resignation undermined CDU's image, triggering a rapid market decline.
Final pre‑election poll shows Die Linke at 8 %, its lowest since 2021, as voters shift to the Greens
Linke dips to 13%3%
Final pre‑election poll shows Die Linke at 8 %, its lowest since 2021, as voters shift to the Greens
AfD reaches highest market
AfD surges to 51%39%
Market optimism peaked as AfD's polling surged, reflecting expectations of strong election performance.
CDU reaches a high polling peak in Berlin at 72% amid hopes for a strong election showing
CDU surges to 72%16%
Optimistic polling and positive media coverage led to a market peak for CDU.
CDU leader Kai Wegner elected mayor after three voting rounds, confirming a CDU‑SPD grand coalition; SPD’s poll share falls to 7 %
SPD dips to 7%2%
CDU leader Kai Wegner elected mayor after three voting rounds, confirming a CDU‑SPD grand coalition; SPD’s poll share falls to 7 %
BSW stellt Wahlprogramm für Berlin erneut vor und fordert Mindestlohn von 15 Euro sowie Schulpolitikänderungen
Beim Landesparteitag in Berlin-Lichtenberg wurde das Wahlprogramm mit sozialpolitischen Forderungen wie einem höheren Mindestlohn und einem Verbot von Smartphones in Grundschulen bestätigt, was jedoch keine Kurssteigerung bewirkte, da die Partei weiterhin als chancenlos galt.
YouGov poll shows AfD as most popular party nationwide with 27% support
AfD rises to 12%1%
AfD's rise to the top in national polls amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government boosted market confidence in the party's electoral prospects.
Polls show declining CDU support in Berlin amid rising AfD and Greens popularity
CDU drops to 51%13%
New polling data reflected voter shifts away from CDU, causing a notable market decline.
Linke rebounds after a televised debate where its candidate outperforms the CDU on social‑housing policy; poll rises to 13 %
Linke rises to 16%4%
Linke rebounds after a televised debate where its candidate outperforms the CDU on social‑housing policy; poll rises to 13 %
Market dips to 5% following coalition tensions and SPD's narrow lead over Greens in Berlin's 2023 repeat state election, reflecting uncertainty about Greens' ability to lead
Grüne drops to 5%6%
The SPD's slight edge and coalition negotiations created doubts about the Greens' chances to be the largest party in Berlin, causing a market sell-off.
North Rhine-Westphalia state election polls show AfD at 19% amid harsh measures against party members
AfD dips to 12%1%
Despite strong polling, reports of SPD-led government measures against AfD members created mixed signals, causing minor
Baden-Württemberg state election shows AfD polling at 21%, second place
AfD jumps to 13%6%
AfD's strong polling in Baden-Württemberg, a western state, indicated expanding influence beyond its eastern strongholds, contributing to a
Die Linke’s candidate Katrin Klein withdraws after a scandal involving misuse of party funds; poll drops to 9 %
Linke drops to 12%6%
Die Linke’s candidate Katrin Klein withdraws after a scandal involving misuse of party funds; poll drops to 9 %
Greens peak at 19% amid regional election success in Baden-Württemberg, where Cem Özdemir leads the Greens to victory, highlighting their appeal in key states
Grüne jumps to 19%11%
The Greens' win in Baden-Württemberg, a major industrial region, was seen as a positive signal for their Berlin prospects, lifting market expectations.
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as mayor of Berlin after three rounds of voting
CDU jumps to 64%7%
Wegner's election as mayor was seen as a consolidation of CDU leadership, temporarily boosting market optimism.
State election commissioner announces a 10 % increase in polling stations, prompting concerns about logistical challenges for smaller parties;
Linke drops to 18%5%
Die Linke’s poll slips to 11 %
AfD surge in a nationwide poll drags left‑wing numbers down;
Linke drops to 23%10%
Die Linke falls to 12 % in Berlin
CDU suffers reputational damage due to internal disputes and public dissatisfaction with the Berlin Senate coalition
CDU drops to 45%8%
Reports of dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition and internal party conflicts led to a sharp drop in market confidence.
Repeat Berlin state election ordered after 2021 results invalidated
The Constitutional Court's invalidation of the 2021 Berlin election and ordering of a repeat election maintained political uncertainty, with AfD polling low in Berlin, keeping
BSW reicht Wahlprüfungsbeschwerde beim Bundesverfassungsgericht ein
BSW rises to 3%3%
Nach der Ablehnung einer Neuauszählung der Bundestagswahl durch den Bundestag im Dezember 2025 reichte das BSW Mitte Februar 2026 eine Beschwerde ein, was kurzfristig zu einem kleinen Preisanstieg führte, da dies Aufmerksamkeit auf die Partei lenkte.
Polls show CDU leading in Berlin with 28% but facing strong competition from AfD and SPD
CDU drops to 53%11%
Emerging polling data indicated a more competitive race, causing a significant market correction downward for CDU.
Die Linke releases a detailed climate‑justice program; poll climbs to 20 %
Linke jumps to 33%5%
Die Linke releases a detailed climate‑justice program; poll climbs to 20 %
SPD and CDU vote to begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin
CDU jumps to 64%5%
The announcement of coalition talks suggested CDU's strong position in Berlin politics, raising market confidence in CDU winning the most seats.
SPD gains 4 % in poll after announcing a coalition‑talks “grand coalition” with CDU, raising hopes of a joint government
SPD rises to 10%3%
SPD gains 4 % in poll after announcing a coalition‑talks “grand coalition” with CDU, raising hopes of a joint government
Two days later, a Civey poll shows Die Linke falling back to 15 % after criticism of the candidate’s stance on rent caps
Linke jumps to 28%11%
Two days later, a Civey poll shows Die Linke falling back to 15 % after criticism of the candidate’s stance on rent caps
Die Linke nominates longtime Berlin councilor Katrin Klein as lead candidate, poll rises to 19 %
Linke drops to 17%8%
Die Linke nominates longtime Berlin councilor Katrin Klein as lead candidate, poll rises to 19 %
BSW nominiert Alexander King und Michael Lüders als Spitzenkandidaten für Berlin
Die Nominierung der Doppelspitze mit Alexander King und dem Publizisten Michael Lüders wurde bekanntgegeben, um die Themen Friedenspolitik und Abrüstung zu betonen. Dies stabilisierte den Preis kurzzeitig, konnte aber keine signifikante Kurswende bewirken.
SPD announces a new housing platform that pulls left‑leaning voters;
Linke drops to 25%5%
Die Linke’s poll slips to 14 %
Greens, CDU, and SPD reach agreement on Bundesrat motions, signaling coalition cooperation but also potential compromises for the Greens
Grüne surges to 23%19%
The coalition agreement news boosted confidence in the Greens' political influence, temporarily raising their market.
Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support
AfD rises to 7%1%
A GMS poll revealed AfD's historic lead over Chancellor Merz's CDU, signaling growing national support and stabilizing the market
Die Linke’s internal poll after a successful Berlin‑wide rally records 18 % support, sparking a short‑term
Linke rises to 30%3%
Die Linke’s internal poll after a successful Berlin‑wide rally records 18 % support, sparking a short‑term
CDU mayor Kai Wegner faces criticism over housing‑policy delays;
SPD drops to 11%14%
new poll shows CDU back to 20 % and SPD slipping to 11 %
Sahra Wagenknecht nominated as chancellor candidate for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), increasing fragmentation on the left and complicating CDU coalition prospects
CDU jumps to 60%10%
This event heightened uncertainty in the federal political landscape, initially boosting CDU's perceived chances as a stable alternative.
Poll surge for SPD to 25 % after Krach’s first rally in Kreuzberg, while CDU loses ground
SPD jumps to 25%6%
Poll surge for SPD to 25 % after Krach’s first rally in Kreuzberg, while CDU loses ground
SPD unveils lead‑candidate Steffen Krach and launches a city‑wide “Housing First” tour (the announcement lifted the SPD’s poll standing, sparking a short‑term
SPD jumps to 19%12%
SPD unveils lead‑candidate Steffen Krach and launches a city‑wide “Housing First” tour (the announcement lifted the SPD’s poll standing, sparking a short‑term
Follow‑up PolitPro poll drops Die Linke to 13 % amid rising AfD support
Linke jumps to 27%6%
Follow‑up PolitPro poll drops Die Linke to 13 % amid rising AfD support
AfD nominates Alice Weidel as chancellor candidate, while the Greens confirm Robert Habeck as their candidate for the people in Germany, setting the stage for federal election dynamics that influence Berlin politics
Grüne plunges to 1%49%
This federal-level nomination clarified the Greens' leadership but coincided with a sharp drop in market confidence for the Greens winning Berlin, reflecting uncertainty about their prospects amid national competition.
BSW beschließt Wahlprogramm für die Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl mit Schwerpunkt auf Frieden, Wirtschaft und Soziales
BSW plunges to 1%49%
Das Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) stellte sein Wahlprogramm vor, das sich gegen Aufrüstung und für soziale Gerechtigkeit einsetzt. Trotz programmatischer Klarheit führte die Bekanntgabe nicht zu einem Preisanstieg, sondern fiel stark, da die Partei als Außenseiter wahrgenommen wurde.
New poll shows CDU‑SPD coalition falls to 38 % – SPD drops to fourth place with 14 % support
SPD plunges to 12%38%
New poll shows CDU‑SPD coalition falls to 38 % – SPD drops to fourth place with 14 % support
PolitPro poll shows Die Linke at 16.8 % – the highest level since 2022, narrowing the gap to the CDU
Linke plunges to 21%29%
PolitPro poll shows Die Linke at 16.8 % – the highest level since 2022, narrowing the gap to the CDU
Multiple AfD candidates die before local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, sparking speculation
The unusual deaths of several AfD candidates before local elections raised concerns and media attention, affecting perceptions of party stability.
Higher court rejects AfD Saxony branch appeal against "confirmed right-wing extremist" designation
AfD plunges to 6%44%
The court's rejection of the AfD Saxony branch's appeal upheld its extremist classification, undermining the party's legitimacy and triggering a sharp market
AfD becomes strongest party in Thuringia state election with 32.8% vote share
AfD's historic win in Thuringia demonstrated its growing electoral strength in eastern Germany, setting the stage for its 2026 election prospects.
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