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Política·Elecciones Globales

Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia

icon for Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia
Política·Elecciones Globales

Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia

Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella 44%

Iván Cepeda Castro 41%

Paloma Valencia 15.8%

Vicky Dávila (IND) <1%

Polymarket

$28,479,778 Vol.

Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella 44%

Iván Cepeda Castro 41%

Paloma Valencia 15.8%

Vicky Dávila (IND) <1%

Polymarket

$28,479,778 Vol.

icon for Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella

Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella

$1,080,032 Vol.

44%

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$951,304 Vol.

41%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$1,142,341 Vol.

16%

icon for Vicky Dávila (IND)

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$2,831,470 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,710,528 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López (IND)

Claudia López (IND)

$1,069,674 Vol.

<1%

icon for Título del ítem del grupo: Sergio Fajardo (DC)

Título del ítem del grupo: Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,668,061 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$1,016,132 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Felipe Córdoba

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$567,257 Vol.

<1%

icon for Título del grupo: David Luna Sánchez (IND)

Título del grupo: David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,739,061 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$1,517,121 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$5,750,845 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$708,113 Vol.

<1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,780,847 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,493,805 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$694,239 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,305,568 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$429,214 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round presidential contest ahead of Colombia's May 31 vote, pricing unidentified moderate Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability, right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.5%, and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.5%, with Paloma Valencia trailing at 15.8%. Recent polls like Invamer (late April) and AtlasIntel (early May) show Cepeda leading first-round intentions at 38-44%, but tightening trackers indicate right-wing challengers gaining amid fragmented opposition vote and President Petro's popularity rebound post-March legislative wins for his Pacto Histórico coalition. Pre-election violence spikes and upcoming debates heighten uncertainty, keeping the race contested; a dominant debate performance or security endorsement could tip the balance toward a runoff on June 21.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$28,479,778
Fecha de finalización
21 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round presidential contest ahead of Colombia's May 31 vote, pricing unidentified moderate Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability, right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.5%, and leftist Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.5%, with Paloma Valencia trailing at 15.8%. Recent polls like Invamer (late April) and AtlasIntel (early May) show Cepeda leading first-round intentions at 38-44%, but tightening trackers indicate right-wing challengers gaining amid fragmented opposition vote and President Petro's popularity rebound post-March legislative wins for his Pacto Histórico coalition. Pre-election violence spikes and upcoming debates heighten uncertainty, keeping the race contested; a dominant debate performance or security endorsement could tip the balance toward a runoff on June 21.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volumen
$28,479,778
Fecha de finalización
21 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 19 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella" con 44%, seguido de "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 41%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 44¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" ha generado $28.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 29, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia", explora los 19 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" es "Título del ítem del grupo: Abelardo de la Espriella" con 44%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 41%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones presidenciales de Colombia" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.