Market icon
Mundo·Brasil

¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?

Market icon
Mundo·Brasil

¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?

Sí

16% probabilidad
Polymarket

$48,151 Vol.

Sí

16% probabilidad
Polymarket

$48,151 Vol.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent nationwide polls from late March 2026, including AtlasIntel (Lula da Silva at 45.9%, Tarcísio de Freitas at 40.1%), Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41.3%, Tarcísio 37.8%), and BTG Pactual/Nexus (Lula around 40%, Flávio Bolsonaro around 38%), show no candidate nearing the 50%+1 votes needed for an outright win in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election. This fragmented field, split between incumbent President Lula seeking a fourth term and right-wing challengers like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, aligns with trader consensus implying an 84% chance of a runoff on October 25—consistent with historical precedent, as no president has won outright since direct elections resumed in 1989 amid multipolar races. Tightening runoff simulations further underscore the competitive yet divided electorate.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$48,151
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent nationwide polls from late March 2026, including AtlasIntel (Lula da Silva at 45.9%, Tarcísio de Freitas at 40.1%), Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41.3%, Tarcísio 37.8%), and BTG Pactual/Nexus (Lula around 40%, Flávio Bolsonaro around 38%), show no candidate nearing the 50%+1 votes needed for an outright win in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election. This fragmented field, split between incumbent President Lula seeking a fourth term and right-wing challengers like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, aligns with trader consensus implying an 84% chance of a runoff on October 25—consistent with historical precedent, as no president has won outright since direct elections resumed in 1989 amid multipolar races. Tightening runoff simulations further underscore the competitive yet divided electorate.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$48,151
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Algún candidato presidencial ganará en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?" con 16%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 16¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 16% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?" ha generado $48.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?" es "¿Algún candidato presidencial ganará en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?" con 16%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 16% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ganará algún candidato presidencial en la primera vuelta de las elecciones de Brasil?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.