Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 first round shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 35-40 percent support, with the balance split among candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This persistent fragmentation keeps the leading share well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Brazilian electoral rules. With Ciro Gomes recently confirming he will not run for president and the field otherwise stable, no single candidate has consolidated enough backing to reach a first-round majority. Traders therefore assign high probability to a runoff on October 25.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$65,686 Vol.
$65,686 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Sí
$65,686 Vol.
$65,686 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 first round shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 35-40 percent support, with the balance split among candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This persistent fragmentation keeps the leading share well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Brazilian electoral rules. With Ciro Gomes recently confirming he will not run for president and the field otherwise stable, no single candidate has consolidated enough backing to reach a first-round majority. Traders therefore assign high probability to a runoff on October 25.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$65,686Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 first round shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 35-40 percent support, with the balance split among candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This persistent fragmentation keeps the leading share well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Brazilian electoral rules. With Ciro Gomes recently confirming he will not run for president and the field otherwise stable, no single candidate has consolidated enough backing to reach a first-round majority. Traders therefore assign high probability to a runoff on October 25.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$65,686Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 2026 first round shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drawing roughly 35-40 percent support, with the balance split among candidates including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This persistent fragmentation keeps the leading share well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory under Brazilian electoral rules. With Ciro Gomes recently confirming he will not run for president and the field otherwise stable, no single candidate has consolidated enough backing to reach a first-round majority. Traders therefore assign high probability to a runoff on October 25.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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