Traders heavily favor Parti Québécois candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne by-election, reflecting polls showing her 10-15 point lead amid Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) fatigue and Premier François Legault's sagging approval ratings below 30%. CAQ recruit Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, a former Bloc Québécois federal MP with strong sovereigntist name recognition, holds 37% as traders weigh her crossover appeal in this ex-CAQ riding against PQ momentum from recent byelection gains elsewhere in Quebec. Minor candidates trail at 0.1%, ignored by markets. A September 25 poll reinforced Auguste's edge, while Sinclair-Desgagné's debate performance narrowed the gap slightly; voting concludes November 4.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 36%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$17,277 Vol.
$17,277 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
36%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 36%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$17,277 Vol.
$17,277 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
36%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor Parti Québécois candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne by-election, reflecting polls showing her 10-15 point lead amid Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) fatigue and Premier François Legault's sagging approval ratings below 30%. CAQ recruit Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, a former Bloc Québécois federal MP with strong sovereigntist name recognition, holds 37% as traders weigh her crossover appeal in this ex-CAQ riding against PQ momentum from recent byelection gains elsewhere in Quebec. Minor candidates trail at 0.1%, ignored by markets. A September 25 poll reinforced Auguste's edge, while Sinclair-Desgagné's debate performance narrowed the gap slightly; voting concludes November 4.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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