Mid-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new center-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, leading GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points—PB at 29-31% versus GERB-SDS at 19-23%—aligning trader consensus with a tight 5-15% victory margin in vote share. This edge reflects Radev's consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment amid Bulgaria's eighth snap election in five years under proportional representation, where fragmented support for five-plus parties above the 4% threshold caps outright majorities and heightens volatility. Official campaigning began March 20; upcoming debates, endorsements, or turnout shifts could separate contenders ahead of the April 19 vote, as historical polling inaccuracies in prior fragmented races underscore uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoBulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
Bulgaria Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 32%
PB 15-20% 13%
PB <5% 12%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
11%
PB 15-20%
13%
PB 10-15%
41%
PB 5-10%
32%
PB <5%
12%
Victoria de GERB-SDS
11%
Other
12%
PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 32%
PB 15-20% 13%
PB <5% 12%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$20 Vol.
11%
PB 15-20%
$0 Vol.
13%
PB 10-15%
$158 Vol.
41%
PB 5-10%
$29 Vol.
32%
PB <5%
$0 Vol.
12%
Victoria de GERB-SDS
$0 Vol.
11%
Other
$0 Vol.
12%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Mid-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new center-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, leading GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points—PB at 29-31% versus GERB-SDS at 19-23%—aligning trader consensus with a tight 5-15% victory margin in vote share. This edge reflects Radev's consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment amid Bulgaria's eighth snap election in five years under proportional representation, where fragmented support for five-plus parties above the 4% threshold caps outright majorities and heightens volatility. Official campaigning began March 20; upcoming debates, endorsements, or turnout shifts could separate contenders ahead of the April 19 vote, as historical polling inaccuracies in prior fragmented races underscore uncertainty.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volumen
$208Fecha de finalización
Apr 19, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Mid-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new center-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, leading GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points—PB at 29-31% versus GERB-SDS at 19-23%—aligning trader consensus with a tight 5-15% victory margin in vote share. This edge reflects Radev's consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment amid Bulgaria's eighth snap election in five years under proportional representation, where fragmented support for five-plus parties above the 4% threshold caps outright majorities and heightens volatility. Official campaigning began March 20; upcoming debates, endorsements, or turnout shifts could separate contenders ahead of the April 19 vote, as historical polling inaccuracies in prior fragmented races underscore uncertainty.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volumen
$208Fecha de finalización
Apr 19, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mid-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new center-left coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, leading GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points—PB at 29-31% versus GERB-SDS at 19-23%—aligning trader consensus with a tight 5-15% victory margin in vote share. This edge reflects Radev's consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment amid Bulgaria's eighth snap election in five years under proportional representation, where fragmented support for five-plus parties above the 4% threshold caps outright majorities and heightens volatility. Official campaigning began March 20; upcoming debates, endorsements, or turnout shifts could separate contenders ahead of the April 19 vote, as historical polling inaccuracies in prior fragmented races underscore uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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