Brazil’s central bank has delivered four consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts since March 2026, bringing the benchmark rate to 14% after the August meeting, amid a slowing economy that has created room for gradual policy easing. Recent inflation prints have shown modest moderation while remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the target range, with Focus survey expectations for 2026 IPCA holding near 5.0% and longer-term forecasts still de-anchored above the 3% midpoint. The Copom’s repeated emphasis on data dependence and a neutral post-meeting statement have reinforced trader expectations for another calibrated reduction at the September 15–16 meeting. A 25-basis-point move remains the dominant market-implied outcome, reflecting the balance between restrictive policy and gradual normalization. Stronger-than-expected inflation data, renewed fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, or adverse external shocks could still tilt the committee toward a hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDisminución de 25 puntos básicos 97.1%
Sin cambio 1.7%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$134,472 Vol.
$134,472 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio
2%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
97%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 97.1%
Sin cambio 1.7%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$134,472 Vol.
$134,472 Vol.
15 sep 2026
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$5,941 Vol.
<1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$6,918 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambio
$44,240 Vol.
2%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$65,709 Vol.
97%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$11,664 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Brazil’s central bank has delivered four consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts since March 2026, bringing the benchmark rate to 14% after the August meeting, amid a slowing economy that has created room for gradual policy easing. Recent inflation prints have shown modest moderation while remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the target range, with Focus survey expectations for 2026 IPCA holding near 5.0% and longer-term forecasts still de-anchored above the 3% midpoint. The Copom’s repeated emphasis on data dependence and a neutral post-meeting statement have reinforced trader expectations for another calibrated reduction at the September 15–16 meeting. A 25-basis-point move remains the dominant market-implied outcome, reflecting the balance between restrictive policy and gradual normalization. Stronger-than-expected inflation data, renewed fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, or adverse external shocks could still tilt the committee toward a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volumen
$134,472Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Brazil’s central bank has delivered four consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts since March 2026, bringing the benchmark rate to 14% after the August meeting, amid a slowing economy that has created room for gradual policy easing. Recent inflation prints have shown modest moderation while remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the target range, with Focus survey expectations for 2026 IPCA holding near 5.0% and longer-term forecasts still de-anchored above the 3% midpoint. The Copom’s repeated emphasis on data dependence and a neutral post-meeting statement have reinforced trader expectations for another calibrated reduction at the September 15–16 meeting. A 25-basis-point move remains the dominant market-implied outcome, reflecting the balance between restrictive policy and gradual normalization. Stronger-than-expected inflation data, renewed fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, or adverse external shocks could still tilt the committee toward a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$134,472Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s central bank has delivered four consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts since March 2026, bringing the benchmark rate to 14% after the August meeting, amid a slowing economy that has created room for gradual policy easing. Recent inflation prints have shown modest moderation while remaining above the 4.5% upper bound of the target range, with Focus survey expectations for 2026 IPCA holding near 5.0% and longer-term forecasts still de-anchored above the 3% midpoint. The Copom’s repeated emphasis on data dependence and a neutral post-meeting statement have reinforced trader expectations for another calibrated reduction at the September 15–16 meeting. A 25-basis-point move remains the dominant market-implied outcome, reflecting the balance between restrictive policy and gradual normalization. Stronger-than-expected inflation data, renewed fiscal stimulus ahead of elections, or adverse external shocks could still tilt the committee toward a hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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