Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar amid harsh winter conditions, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving the 85.5% "No" trader consensus on a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, such as recent ATACMS attacks on airfields, have prompted Kremlin vows of retaliation without diplomatic overtures. President Zelenskyy's insistence on full territorial restoration and NATO security guarantees clashes with President Putin's demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine's neutrality, stalling peace talks. Incoming U.S. President Trump's pledge for swift negotiations introduces uncertainty, but historical escalation patterns and North Korean troop deployments to Russia reinforce traders' skepticism of near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de junio de 2026?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de junio de 2026?
Sí
$3,641,817 Vol.
$3,641,817 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Sí
$3,641,817 Vol.
$3,641,817 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar amid harsh winter conditions, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving the 85.5% "No" trader consensus on a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, such as recent ATACMS attacks on airfields, have prompted Kremlin vows of retaliation without diplomatic overtures. President Zelenskyy's insistence on full territorial restoration and NATO security guarantees clashes with President Putin's demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine's neutrality, stalling peace talks. Incoming U.S. President Trump's pledge for swift negotiations introduces uncertainty, but historical escalation patterns and North Korean troop deployments to Russia reinforce traders' skepticism of near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Volumen
$3,641,817Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar amid harsh winter conditions, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving the 85.5% "No" trader consensus on a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, such as recent ATACMS attacks on airfields, have prompted Kremlin vows of retaliation without diplomatic overtures. President Zelenskyy's insistence on full territorial restoration and NATO security guarantees clashes with President Putin's demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine's neutrality, stalling peace talks. Incoming U.S. President Trump's pledge for swift negotiations introduces uncertainty, but historical escalation patterns and North Korean troop deployments to Russia reinforce traders' skepticism of near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$3,641,817Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar amid harsh winter conditions, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving the 85.5% "No" trader consensus on a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, such as recent ATACMS attacks on airfields, have prompted Kremlin vows of retaliation without diplomatic overtures. President Zelenskyy's insistence on full territorial restoration and NATO security guarantees clashes with President Putin's demands for recognition of annexed regions and Ukraine's neutrality, stalling peace talks. Incoming U.S. President Trump's pledge for swift negotiations introduces uncertainty, but historical escalation patterns and North Korean troop deployments to Russia reinforce traders' skepticism of near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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