Stalled U.S.-backed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, coupled with Moscow's launch of a spring offensive, have solidified trader consensus against a deal by June 30, pricing "No" at 91.5%. Recent developments include Russia's March 25 demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas—echoed in U.S. security guarantee conditions that Zelenskiy publicly rejected—and competing frontline claims amid ongoing Russian airstrikes killing civilians as late as March 28. Diplomatic efforts, including postponed Geneva rounds and Kremlin calls for new U.S. talks, remain deadlocked over territorial concessions, with Ukraine securing alternative defense pacts from UAE and Qatar. Absent major de-escalation or concessions, historical patterns of protracted negotiations in active conflicts reinforce the low odds of timely resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$70,168 Vol.
$70,168 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$70,168 Vol.
$70,168 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Stalled U.S.-backed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, coupled with Moscow's launch of a spring offensive, have solidified trader consensus against a deal by June 30, pricing "No" at 91.5%. Recent developments include Russia's March 25 demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas—echoed in U.S. security guarantee conditions that Zelenskiy publicly rejected—and competing frontline claims amid ongoing Russian airstrikes killing civilians as late as March 28. Diplomatic efforts, including postponed Geneva rounds and Kremlin calls for new U.S. talks, remain deadlocked over territorial concessions, with Ukraine securing alternative defense pacts from UAE and Qatar. Absent major de-escalation or concessions, historical patterns of protracted negotiations in active conflicts reinforce the low odds of timely resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$70,168Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Stalled U.S.-backed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, coupled with Moscow's launch of a spring offensive, have solidified trader consensus against a deal by June 30, pricing "No" at 91.5%. Recent developments include Russia's March 25 demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas—echoed in U.S. security guarantee conditions that Zelenskiy publicly rejected—and competing frontline claims amid ongoing Russian airstrikes killing civilians as late as March 28. Diplomatic efforts, including postponed Geneva rounds and Kremlin calls for new U.S. talks, remain deadlocked over territorial concessions, with Ukraine securing alternative defense pacts from UAE and Qatar. Absent major de-escalation or concessions, historical patterns of protracted negotiations in active conflicts reinforce the low odds of timely resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$70,168Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled U.S.-backed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, coupled with Moscow's launch of a spring offensive, have solidified trader consensus against a deal by June 30, pricing "No" at 91.5%. Recent developments include Russia's March 25 demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas—echoed in U.S. security guarantee conditions that Zelenskiy publicly rejected—and competing frontline claims amid ongoing Russian airstrikes killing civilians as late as March 28. Diplomatic efforts, including postponed Geneva rounds and Kremlin calls for new U.S. talks, remain deadlocked over territorial concessions, with Ukraine securing alternative defense pacts from UAE and Qatar. Absent major de-escalation or concessions, historical patterns of protracted negotiations in active conflicts reinforce the low odds of timely resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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