Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 as highly unlikely at just 7.5% Yes, driven by stalled US-mediated talks paused amid Russia's spring offensive launched late March and distractions from the Iran war. Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donetsk that Kyiv rejects outright, with Zelenskiy voicing dissatisfaction after February rounds yielded only prisoner swaps. Both sides claim front-line gains, underscoring persistent military escalation over de-escalation signals. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits loom before summer, reinforcing structural barriers like irreconcilable security guarantees and ongoing hostilities that define the impasse. Late-breaking concessions or aid shifts could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to prolonged stalemate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$70,248 Vol.
$70,248 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$70,248 Vol.
$70,248 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 as highly unlikely at just 7.5% Yes, driven by stalled US-mediated talks paused amid Russia's spring offensive launched late March and distractions from the Iran war. Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donetsk that Kyiv rejects outright, with Zelenskiy voicing dissatisfaction after February rounds yielded only prisoner swaps. Both sides claim front-line gains, underscoring persistent military escalation over de-escalation signals. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits loom before summer, reinforcing structural barriers like irreconcilable security guarantees and ongoing hostilities that define the impasse. Late-breaking concessions or aid shifts could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$70,248Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 as highly unlikely at just 7.5% Yes, driven by stalled US-mediated talks paused amid Russia's spring offensive launched late March and distractions from the Iran war. Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donetsk that Kyiv rejects outright, with Zelenskiy voicing dissatisfaction after February rounds yielded only prisoner swaps. Both sides claim front-line gains, underscoring persistent military escalation over de-escalation signals. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits loom before summer, reinforcing structural barriers like irreconcilable security guarantees and ongoing hostilities that define the impasse. Late-breaking concessions or aid shifts could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to prolonged stalemate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$70,248Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 as highly unlikely at just 7.5% Yes, driven by stalled US-mediated talks paused amid Russia's spring offensive launched late March and distractions from the Iran war. Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donetsk that Kyiv rejects outright, with Zelenskiy voicing dissatisfaction after February rounds yielded only prisoner swaps. Both sides claim front-line gains, underscoring persistent military escalation over de-escalation signals. No major diplomatic breakthroughs or scheduled summits loom before summer, reinforcing structural barriers like irreconcilable security guarantees and ongoing hostilities that define the impasse. Late-breaking concessions or aid shifts could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to prolonged stalemate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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