Recent U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled amid deep disagreements over territorial concessions, with President Zelenskyy claiming on March 25 that American security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Russia welcomed Zelenskyy's remarks but launched a spring offensive, capturing frontline villages while Ukraine repels advances, signaling ongoing military escalation over de-escalation. Earlier February Geneva discussions ended abruptly without breakthroughs on ceasefire terms or demilitarized zones, despite some reported progress on U.S. guarantees. These unresolved sticking points—territorial disputes, security arrangements, and persistent fighting—drive trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability of no deal before 2027, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a protracted conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$183,991 Vol.
$183,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$183,991 Vol.
$183,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled amid deep disagreements over territorial concessions, with President Zelenskyy claiming on March 25 that American security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Russia welcomed Zelenskyy's remarks but launched a spring offensive, capturing frontline villages while Ukraine repels advances, signaling ongoing military escalation over de-escalation. Earlier February Geneva discussions ended abruptly without breakthroughs on ceasefire terms or demilitarized zones, despite some reported progress on U.S. guarantees. These unresolved sticking points—territorial disputes, security arrangements, and persistent fighting—drive trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability of no deal before 2027, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a protracted conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$183,991Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled amid deep disagreements over territorial concessions, with President Zelenskyy claiming on March 25 that American security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Russia welcomed Zelenskyy's remarks but launched a spring offensive, capturing frontline villages while Ukraine repels advances, signaling ongoing military escalation over de-escalation. Earlier February Geneva discussions ended abruptly without breakthroughs on ceasefire terms or demilitarized zones, despite some reported progress on U.S. guarantees. These unresolved sticking points—territorial disputes, security arrangements, and persistent fighting—drive trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability of no deal before 2027, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a protracted conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$183,991Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled amid deep disagreements over territorial concessions, with President Zelenskyy claiming on March 25 that American security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding Donbas to Moscow—a charge denied by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Russia welcomed Zelenskyy's remarks but launched a spring offensive, capturing frontline villages while Ukraine repels advances, signaling ongoing military escalation over de-escalation. Earlier February Geneva discussions ended abruptly without breakthroughs on ceasefire terms or demilitarized zones, despite some reported progress on U.S. guarantees. These unresolved sticking points—territorial disputes, security arrangements, and persistent fighting—drive trader consensus to a 76.5% implied probability of no deal before 2027, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in a protracted conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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