Russia maintains its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1990, with no confirmed detonation reported through October 2026 despite elevated rhetoric tied to the Ukraine conflict and New START's expiration. Recent activity centers on missile flight tests such as Sarmat and Burevestnik, large-scale strategic exercises simulating nuclear command procedures, and civil defense drills near upgraded facilities, none of which qualify as nuclear explosions under market rules. Moscow has repeatedly conditioned any resumption on a U.S. first move, responding to American statements with warnings of reciprocity while denying ongoing tests. Traders price low probabilities for a 2026 detonation given the substantial diplomatic, verification, and escalation risks, though scheduled exercises or shifts in U.S. policy could alter positioning before year-end resolution.