Russia's strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 in Siberia with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear payloads, focusing on camouflage and mobility amid the Ukraine conflict, but entailing no nuclear detonation. This follows New START treaty expiration on February 5, spurring arms race fears, yet Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium on nuclear tests despite 2023 CTBT ratification revocation. Planned 2026 ICBM flight tests are non-nuclear, lacking fission or fusion chain reactions required for market resolution. Diplomatic pressures, escalation risks, and historical restraint since 1990 keep trader consensus skeptical of near-term detonations, with potential shifts tied to conflict intensification or policy announcements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,333,510 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio de 2026
3%
September 30, 2026
10%
31 de diciembre de 2026
12%
$1,333,510 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$2,575 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$1,257 Vol.
10%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$5,105 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 in Siberia with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear payloads, focusing on camouflage and mobility amid the Ukraine conflict, but entailing no nuclear detonation. This follows New START treaty expiration on February 5, spurring arms race fears, yet Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium on nuclear tests despite 2023 CTBT ratification revocation. Planned 2026 ICBM flight tests are non-nuclear, lacking fission or fusion chain reactions required for market resolution. Diplomatic pressures, escalation risks, and historical restraint since 1990 keep trader consensus skeptical of near-term detonations, with potential shifts tied to conflict intensification or policy announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$1,333,510Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 in Siberia with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear payloads, focusing on camouflage and mobility amid the Ukraine conflict, but entailing no nuclear detonation. This follows New START treaty expiration on February 5, spurring arms race fears, yet Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium on nuclear tests despite 2023 CTBT ratification revocation. Planned 2026 ICBM flight tests are non-nuclear, lacking fission or fusion chain reactions required for market resolution. Diplomatic pressures, escalation risks, and historical restraint since 1990 keep trader consensus skeptical of near-term detonations, with potential shifts tied to conflict intensification or policy announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,333,510Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 in Siberia with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear payloads, focusing on camouflage and mobility amid the Ukraine conflict, but entailing no nuclear detonation. This follows New START treaty expiration on February 5, spurring arms race fears, yet Moscow upholds a de facto moratorium on nuclear tests despite 2023 CTBT ratification revocation. Planned 2026 ICBM flight tests are non-nuclear, lacking fission or fusion chain reactions required for market resolution. Diplomatic pressures, escalation risks, and historical restraint since 1990 keep trader consensus skeptical of near-term detonations, with potential shifts tied to conflict intensification or policy announcements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes