Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026—pricing "No" at 96.5%—stems from stalled diplomacy and intensifying military actions, with no active negotiations underway. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk, bolstered by North Korean troop deployments, and massive missile barrages on Ukrainian cities underscore escalation rather than de-escalation. President Putin demands recognition of annexed territories as a precondition, while President Zelenskyy insists on full withdrawal and reparations, hardening positions amid sustained Western arms supplies. Absent a major catalyst like leadership changes, successful multilateral mediation, or battlefield collapse, the conflict's trajectory favors prolonged stalemate over timely truce. US election outcomes and winter aid flows remain key variables through 2025.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de abril de 2026?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de abril de 2026?
Sí
$1,027,975 Vol.
$1,027,975 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Sí
$1,027,975 Vol.
$1,027,975 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026—pricing "No" at 96.5%—stems from stalled diplomacy and intensifying military actions, with no active negotiations underway. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk, bolstered by North Korean troop deployments, and massive missile barrages on Ukrainian cities underscore escalation rather than de-escalation. President Putin demands recognition of annexed territories as a precondition, while President Zelenskyy insists on full withdrawal and reparations, hardening positions amid sustained Western arms supplies. Absent a major catalyst like leadership changes, successful multilateral mediation, or battlefield collapse, the conflict's trajectory favors prolonged stalemate over timely truce. US election outcomes and winter aid flows remain key variables through 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$1,027,975Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026—pricing "No" at 96.5%—stems from stalled diplomacy and intensifying military actions, with no active negotiations underway. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk, bolstered by North Korean troop deployments, and massive missile barrages on Ukrainian cities underscore escalation rather than de-escalation. President Putin demands recognition of annexed territories as a precondition, while President Zelenskyy insists on full withdrawal and reparations, hardening positions amid sustained Western arms supplies. Absent a major catalyst like leadership changes, successful multilateral mediation, or battlefield collapse, the conflict's trajectory favors prolonged stalemate over timely truce. US election outcomes and winter aid flows remain key variables through 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$1,027,975Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-certain consensus against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026—pricing "No" at 96.5%—stems from stalled diplomacy and intensifying military actions, with no active negotiations underway. Recent Russian advances in Donetsk, bolstered by North Korean troop deployments, and massive missile barrages on Ukrainian cities underscore escalation rather than de-escalation. President Putin demands recognition of annexed territories as a precondition, while President Zelenskyy insists on full withdrawal and reparations, hardening positions amid sustained Western arms supplies. Absent a major catalyst like leadership changes, successful multilateral mediation, or battlefield collapse, the conflict's trajectory favors prolonged stalemate over timely truce. US election outcomes and winter aid flows remain key variables through 2025.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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