Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and Russia's launch of a spring offensive along front lines reported in late March. Diplomatic signals remain muted, with Russia expressing hope for new U.S. rounds as conditions allow (March 26) but no breakthroughs amid Ukraine's insistence on regaining occupied territories without concessions. Recent ISW assessments highlight ongoing Russian advances in Zaporizhia and Ukrainian counteractions near Kupyansk, reinforcing military stalemate. With one month left, entrenched disputes over security guarantees and territory pose formidable barriers, though a sudden de-escalation announcement, major battlefield reversal, or intensified multilateral pressure could alter trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de abril de 2026?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de abril de 2026?
Sí
$1,028,136 Vol.
$1,028,136 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Sí
$1,028,136 Vol.
$1,028,136 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and Russia's launch of a spring offensive along front lines reported in late March. Diplomatic signals remain muted, with Russia expressing hope for new U.S. rounds as conditions allow (March 26) but no breakthroughs amid Ukraine's insistence on regaining occupied territories without concessions. Recent ISW assessments highlight ongoing Russian advances in Zaporizhia and Ukrainian counteractions near Kupyansk, reinforcing military stalemate. With one month left, entrenched disputes over security guarantees and territory pose formidable barriers, though a sudden de-escalation announcement, major battlefield reversal, or intensified multilateral pressure could alter trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$1,028,136Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and Russia's launch of a spring offensive along front lines reported in late March. Diplomatic signals remain muted, with Russia expressing hope for new U.S. rounds as conditions allow (March 26) but no breakthroughs amid Ukraine's insistence on regaining occupied territories without concessions. Recent ISW assessments highlight ongoing Russian advances in Zaporizhia and Ukrainian counteractions near Kupyansk, reinforcing military stalemate. With one month left, entrenched disputes over security guarantees and territory pose formidable barriers, though a sudden de-escalation announcement, major battlefield reversal, or intensified multilateral pressure could alter trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$1,028,136Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks and Russia's launch of a spring offensive along front lines reported in late March. Diplomatic signals remain muted, with Russia expressing hope for new U.S. rounds as conditions allow (March 26) but no breakthroughs amid Ukraine's insistence on regaining occupied territories without concessions. Recent ISW assessments highlight ongoing Russian advances in Zaporizhia and Ukrainian counteractions near Kupyansk, reinforcing military stalemate. With one month left, entrenched disputes over security guarantees and territory pose formidable barriers, though a sudden de-escalation announcement, major battlefield reversal, or intensified multilateral pressure could alter trader sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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