Trader consensus prices "No" at 88%, reflecting Ukraine's lack of any public pledge to renounce NATO membership amid stalled US-brokered peace talks with Russia. Recent developments, including a March pause in negotiations due to Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, have dimmed prospects for a deal by the June 30 deadline originally set by Washington in February. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's late-March statement deprioritizing Ukraine's accession further underscores the shift toward bilateral security guarantees over alliance entry, without triggering the formal commitment required for resolution. While a late diplomatic breakthrough remains possible, traders see high barriers given Kyiv's insistence on robust assurances and Moscow's territorial demands.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 88%, reflecting Ukraine's lack of any public pledge to renounce NATO membership amid stalled US-brokered peace talks with Russia. Recent developments, including a March pause in negotiations due to Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, have dimmed prospects for a deal by the June 30 deadline originally set by Washington in February. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's late-March statement deprioritizing Ukraine's accession further underscores the shift toward bilateral security guarantees over alliance entry, without triggering the formal commitment required for resolution. While a late diplomatic breakthrough remains possible, traders see high barriers given Kyiv's insistence on robust assurances and Moscow's territorial demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Volumen
$14,699Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 88%, reflecting Ukraine's lack of any public pledge to renounce NATO membership amid stalled US-brokered peace talks with Russia. Recent developments, including a March pause in negotiations due to Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, have dimmed prospects for a deal by the June 30 deadline originally set by Washington in February. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's late-March statement deprioritizing Ukraine's accession further underscores the shift toward bilateral security guarantees over alliance entry, without triggering the formal commitment required for resolution. While a late diplomatic breakthrough remains possible, traders see high barriers given Kyiv's insistence on robust assurances and Moscow's territorial demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volumen
$14,699Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 88%, reflecting Ukraine's lack of any public pledge to renounce NATO membership amid stalled US-brokered peace talks with Russia. Recent developments, including a March pause in negotiations due to Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran conflict, have dimmed prospects for a deal by the June 30 deadline originally set by Washington in February. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's late-March statement deprioritizing Ukraine's accession further underscores the shift toward bilateral security guarantees over alliance entry, without triggering the formal commitment required for resolution. While a late diplomatic breakthrough remains possible, traders see high barriers given Kyiv's insistence on robust assurances and Moscow's territorial demands.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes