Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.2% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula, including heavy air defenses and naval assets, with no verified Ukrainian advances there in recent months. A Reuters report on March 26 highlighted Moscow's $11.8 billion investment through 2026 to integrate occupied Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, signaling long-term entrenchment. Zelenskyy reiterated de-occupation goals on March 27 but noted Russia's stalled 2026-2027 offensive plans for Donbas and the south, underscoring mutual frontline stalemates per ISW assessments through March 25. With three months remaining, barriers like manpower shortages and logistics remain prohibitive; shifts would require unprecedented Western aid surges, Russian internal collapse, or breakthrough southern offensives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea para el 30 de junio de 2026?
¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea para el 30 de junio de 2026?
Sí
$51,659 Vol.
$51,659 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Sí
$51,659 Vol.
$51,659 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.2% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula, including heavy air defenses and naval assets, with no verified Ukrainian advances there in recent months. A Reuters report on March 26 highlighted Moscow's $11.8 billion investment through 2026 to integrate occupied Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, signaling long-term entrenchment. Zelenskyy reiterated de-occupation goals on March 27 but noted Russia's stalled 2026-2027 offensive plans for Donbas and the south, underscoring mutual frontline stalemates per ISW assessments through March 25. With three months remaining, barriers like manpower shortages and logistics remain prohibitive; shifts would require unprecedented Western aid surges, Russian internal collapse, or breakthrough southern offensives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volumen
$51,659Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.2% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula, including heavy air defenses and naval assets, with no verified Ukrainian advances there in recent months. A Reuters report on March 26 highlighted Moscow's $11.8 billion investment through 2026 to integrate occupied Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, signaling long-term entrenchment. Zelenskyy reiterated de-occupation goals on March 27 but noted Russia's stalled 2026-2027 offensive plans for Donbas and the south, underscoring mutual frontline stalemates per ISW assessments through March 25. With three months remaining, barriers like manpower shortages and logistics remain prohibitive; shifts would require unprecedented Western aid surges, Russian internal collapse, or breakthrough southern offensives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volumen
$51,659Fecha de finalización
Jun 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.2% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula, including heavy air defenses and naval assets, with no verified Ukrainian advances there in recent months. A Reuters report on March 26 highlighted Moscow's $11.8 billion investment through 2026 to integrate occupied Ukrainian regions, including Crimea, signaling long-term entrenchment. Zelenskyy reiterated de-occupation goals on March 27 but noted Russia's stalled 2026-2027 offensive plans for Donbas and the south, underscoring mutual frontline stalemates per ISW assessments through March 25. With three months remaining, barriers like manpower shortages and logistics remain prohibitive; shifts would require unprecedented Western aid surges, Russian internal collapse, or breakthrough southern offensives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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