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Geopolítica·Putin

¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Putin

¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?

Sí

13% chance
Polymarket

$51,377 Vol.

Sí

13% chance
Polymarket

$51,377 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" con 13%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 13¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" ha generado $51.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 19, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" es "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" con 13%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.