President Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations and ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site but has not requested dedicated funding since 2010, with official estimates indicating 36 months or longer to prepare infrastructure, safety protocols, and environmental compliance. Congressional opposition, state resolutions, and arms-control concerns have limited follow-through, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship continue without explosive detonations. Traders assess the low probability of a full test by late 2026 based on these technical and political constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$669,980 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junio de 2026
1%
30 de septiembre de 2026
5%
31 de diciembre de 2026
9%
$669,980 Vol.
30 de junio de 2026
$42,083 Vol.
1%
30 de septiembre de 2026
$7,047 Vol.
5%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$10,632 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations and ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site but has not requested dedicated funding since 2010, with official estimates indicating 36 months or longer to prepare infrastructure, safety protocols, and environmental compliance. Congressional opposition, state resolutions, and arms-control concerns have limited follow-through, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship continue without explosive detonations. Traders assess the low probability of a full test by late 2026 based on these technical and political constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$669,980Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations and ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site but has not requested dedicated funding since 2010, with official estimates indicating 36 months or longer to prepare infrastructure, safety protocols, and environmental compliance. Congressional opposition, state resolutions, and arms-control concerns have limited follow-through, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship continue without explosive detonations. Traders assess the low probability of a full test by late 2026 based on these technical and political constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$669,980Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump directed the Pentagon in October 2025 to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities by those nations and ending a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains readiness for underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site but has not requested dedicated funding since 2010, with official estimates indicating 36 months or longer to prepare infrastructure, safety protocols, and environmental compliance. Congressional opposition, state resolutions, and arms-control concerns have limited follow-through, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship continue without explosive detonations. Traders assess the low probability of a full test by late 2026 based on these technical and political constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes