The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations, subcritical experiments, and non-explosive certifications by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent congressional pressure in the FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act mandates readiness to conduct a test within 12 months if directed, driven by intelligence on Russia's and China's nuclear activities, but the Biden administration has issued no orders to resume. No developments in the past 30 days signal an imminent test, with barriers including Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty obligations, diplomatic repercussions, and high political costs. A post-election policy shift in 2025 remains a key uncertainty for traders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$584,459 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 de marzo de 2026
<1%
$584,459 Vol.
31 de marzo de 2026
$290,363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations, subcritical experiments, and non-explosive certifications by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent congressional pressure in the FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act mandates readiness to conduct a test within 12 months if directed, driven by intelligence on Russia's and China's nuclear activities, but the Biden administration has issued no orders to resume. No developments in the past 30 days signal an imminent test, with barriers including Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty obligations, diplomatic repercussions, and high political costs. A post-election policy shift in 2025 remains a key uncertainty for traders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volumen
$584,459Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations, subcritical experiments, and non-explosive certifications by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent congressional pressure in the FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act mandates readiness to conduct a test within 12 months if directed, driven by intelligence on Russia's and China's nuclear activities, but the Biden administration has issued no orders to resume. No developments in the past 30 days signal an imminent test, with barriers including Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty obligations, diplomatic repercussions, and high political costs. A post-election policy shift in 2025 remains a key uncertainty for traders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$584,459Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last test in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship through computer simulations, subcritical experiments, and non-explosive certifications by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. Recent congressional pressure in the FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act mandates readiness to conduct a test within 12 months if directed, driven by intelligence on Russia's and China's nuclear activities, but the Biden administration has issued no orders to resume. No developments in the past 30 days signal an imminent test, with barriers including Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty obligations, diplomatic repercussions, and high political costs. A post-election policy shift in 2025 remains a key uncertainty for traders.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes