Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US military strike against Cuba at near-zero implied probability, reflecting the absence of acute provocations or escalatory rhetoric from Washington. Recent US sanctions target Cuban officials over migrant repression at the border, but these remain diplomatic measures amid ongoing bilateral talks on migration and human rights. Cuba's denial of sending troops to support Russia in Ukraine has prompted US warnings, yet no verified intelligence or official preparations indicate kinetic action. Stable deterrence under the Biden administration, with no scheduled military exercises near Cuba, underpins low trader risk assessment; watch for any UN Security Council debates or Venezuela-related contingencies as potential low-impact catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Ataque de EEUU a Cuba por...?
¿Ataque de EEUU a Cuba por...?
$2,485,581 Vol.
31 de marzo
1%
31 de diciembre
30%
$2,485,581 Vol.
31 de marzo
1%
31 de diciembre
30%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US military strike against Cuba at near-zero implied probability, reflecting the absence of acute provocations or escalatory rhetoric from Washington. Recent US sanctions target Cuban officials over migrant repression at the border, but these remain diplomatic measures amid ongoing bilateral talks on migration and human rights. Cuba's denial of sending troops to support Russia in Ukraine has prompted US warnings, yet no verified intelligence or official preparations indicate kinetic action. Stable deterrence under the Biden administration, with no scheduled military exercises near Cuba, underpins low trader risk assessment; watch for any UN Security Council debates or Venezuela-related contingencies as potential low-impact catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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