**US military action against Cuba remains a low-probability outcome in the near term amid ongoing economic pressure and contingency planning.** The Trump administration has intensified sanctions, fuel shipment interceptions, and restrictions on travel and banking while accusing Havana of ties to Russia, China, and Iran. Pentagon reports from September 2026 detail Army Reserve assessments for SOUTHCOM support units and earlier reconnaissance plus air assault options, though no deployment orders exist and President Trump has repeatedly stated a deal is expected and military force is unnecessary. Cuba has responded with defensive preparations and maintained back-channel communications without formal talks. Key upcoming factors include further sanctions timelines, potential diplomatic signals, and any escalation in regional tensions that could shift trader assessments of intervention risk.