Traders assign a 96.3% probability against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the destruction or severe damage to major enrichment facilities and weapons-development sites from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026. Satellite imagery through early October 2026 shows reconstruction and renewed vehicle activity at locations such as Minzadehei, yet these efforts remain focused on cleanup and basic rebuilding rather than operational testing capacity. IAEA access remains restricted since 2025, with uranium stockpiles at 60% enrichment largely unverified and estimates indicating at least a year to a weapon even if Iran prioritizes breakout. Diplomatic pressure, sanctions, and the timeline to restore centrifuge and testing infrastructure reinforce this consensus. Late shifts could occur if reconstruction accelerates undetected or if Tehran decides on a rapid test despite the risks.