US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains around 9-12 months despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities, with limited new damage and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports through March confirm Iran possesses near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles but lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system, amid ongoing safeguards disputes and restricted access to sites hit in 2025-2026 attacks. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these technical barriers, international monitoring, and geopolitical risks of detection, though escalation in the 2026 Iran war or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains around 9-12 months despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities, with limited new damage and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports through March confirm Iran possesses near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles but lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system, amid ongoing safeguards disputes and restricted access to sites hit in 2025-2026 attacks. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these technical barriers, international monitoring, and geopolitical risks of detection, though escalation in the 2026 Iran war or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$189,938Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains around 9-12 months despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities, with limited new damage and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports through March confirm Iran possesses near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles but lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system, amid ongoing safeguards disputes and restricted access to sites hit in 2025-2026 attacks. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these technical barriers, international monitoring, and geopolitical risks of detection, though escalation in the 2026 Iran war or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$189,938Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains around 9-12 months despite US and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear facilities, with limited new damage and no evidence of active weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports through March confirm Iran possesses near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles but lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system, amid ongoing safeguards disputes and restricted access to sites hit in 2025-2026 attacks. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these technical barriers, international monitoring, and geopolitical risks of detection, though escalation in the 2026 Iran war or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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