Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving substantial stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium buried under rubble with no reported recovery plans. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks and verification challenges further constrain rapid advancement toward a test. These developments underpin trader consensus that Iran lacks the near-term capacity for a nuclear test before 2027, though hidden reconstruction or policy shifts could still alter the timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$202,257 Vol.
$202,257 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$202,257 Vol.
$202,257 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving substantial stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium buried under rubble with no reported recovery plans. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks and verification challenges further constrain rapid advancement toward a test. These developments underpin trader consensus that Iran lacks the near-term capacity for a nuclear test before 2027, though hidden reconstruction or policy shifts could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$202,257Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving substantial stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium buried under rubble with no reported recovery plans. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks and verification challenges further constrain rapid advancement toward a test. These developments underpin trader consensus that Iran lacks the near-term capacity for a nuclear test before 2027, though hidden reconstruction or policy shifts could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$202,257Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving substantial stockpiles of near-weapons-grade uranium buried under rubble with no reported recovery plans. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, while IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons program. Ongoing diplomatic talks and verification challenges further constrain rapid advancement toward a test. These developments underpin trader consensus that Iran lacks the near-term capacity for a nuclear test before 2027, though hidden reconstruction or policy shifts could still alter the timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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