Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicating limited new damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent Israeli airstrikes amid ongoing regional conflict, with overall program capacity broadly unchanged and requiring about a year to produce a bomb. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium but no verified weaponization activities or diversion for military use, consistent with Tehran's official doctrine against nuclear arms. Degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz from prior "Midnight Hammer" strikes, coupled with sustained sanctions and diplomatic pressures, reinforces barriers to testing, though escalation signals or covert advances could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$191,721 Vol.
$191,721 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$191,721 Vol.
$191,721 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicating limited new damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent Israeli airstrikes amid ongoing regional conflict, with overall program capacity broadly unchanged and requiring about a year to produce a bomb. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium but no verified weaponization activities or diversion for military use, consistent with Tehran's official doctrine against nuclear arms. Degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz from prior "Midnight Hammer" strikes, coupled with sustained sanctions and diplomatic pressures, reinforces barriers to testing, though escalation signals or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$191,721Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicating limited new damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent Israeli airstrikes amid ongoing regional conflict, with overall program capacity broadly unchanged and requiring about a year to produce a bomb. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium but no verified weaponization activities or diversion for military use, consistent with Tehran's official doctrine against nuclear arms. Degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz from prior "Midnight Hammer" strikes, coupled with sustained sanctions and diplomatic pressures, reinforces barriers to testing, though escalation signals or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$191,721Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Iran conducting a nuclear test before 2027, anchored by U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicating limited new damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent Israeli airstrikes amid ongoing regional conflict, with overall program capacity broadly unchanged and requiring about a year to produce a bomb. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium but no verified weaponization activities or diversion for military use, consistent with Tehran's official doctrine against nuclear arms. Degraded infrastructure at sites like Natanz from prior "Midnight Hammer" strikes, coupled with sustained sanctions and diplomatic pressures, reinforces barriers to testing, though escalation signals or covert advances could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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