US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and additional operations through March 2026 damaged or destroyed key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related sites and infrastructure, pushing back Iran's estimated nuclear weapons timeline according to US intelligence assessments. As of early May 2026 reporting, that timeline remained approximately one year from a decision to pursue a weapon, with no resumption of uranium enrichment observed and Iran's stockpile of 60 percent enriched material largely inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic talks have produced no verified progress toward rapid reconstitution, while IAEA access remains restricted. These factors sustain trader consensus reflected in the 92.3 percent probability on "No" for an Iranian nuclear weapon before 2027.