US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that recent military strikes caused only limited additional damage to Iran's nuclear program, leaving its breakout timeline—time to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb—at roughly one year, with full weaponization likely requiring more time amid ongoing disruptions. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground at Isfahan but note no verified weaponization activities, despite restricted agency access post-2025 strikes on facilities like Natanz. Tehran has softened its stance in US-Iran ceasefire talks, agreeing to include nuclear issues, signaling de-escalation signals that reinforce trader consensus against a pre-2027 bomb, though Supreme Leader authorization or covert advances could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$587,608 Vol.
$587,608 Vol.
Sí
$587,608 Vol.
$587,608 Vol.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that recent military strikes caused only limited additional damage to Iran's nuclear program, leaving its breakout timeline—time to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb—at roughly one year, with full weaponization likely requiring more time amid ongoing disruptions. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground at Isfahan but note no verified weaponization activities, despite restricted agency access post-2025 strikes on facilities like Natanz. Tehran has softened its stance in US-Iran ceasefire talks, agreeing to include nuclear issues, signaling de-escalation signals that reinforce trader consensus against a pre-2027 bomb, though Supreme Leader authorization or covert advances could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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