Trader consensus prices a 91.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward recent rhetorical escalations. Late March 2026 US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants prompted parliament to fast-track a withdrawal bill, with lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Alaeddin Boroujerdi citing IAEA inspections as enabling espionage. However, no bill passage or official action has followed in the subsequent three weeks, consistent with Tehran's historical pattern of threats since 2004 amid stalled JCPOA revival talks and sanctions pressures. Withdrawal would terminate IAEA safeguards, risk UN snapback sanctions, and spur regional proliferation fears, deterring Tehran despite war tensions; late-breaking diplomatic shifts or intensified attacks could alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?
¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?
Sí
$113,699 Vol.
$113,699 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$113,699 Vol.
$113,699 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 91.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward recent rhetorical escalations. Late March 2026 US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants prompted parliament to fast-track a withdrawal bill, with lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Alaeddin Boroujerdi citing IAEA inspections as enabling espionage. However, no bill passage or official action has followed in the subsequent three weeks, consistent with Tehran's historical pattern of threats since 2004 amid stalled JCPOA revival talks and sanctions pressures. Withdrawal would terminate IAEA safeguards, risk UN snapback sanctions, and spur regional proliferation fears, deterring Tehran despite war tensions; late-breaking diplomatic shifts or intensified attacks could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volumen
$113,699Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 91.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward recent rhetorical escalations. Late March 2026 US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants prompted parliament to fast-track a withdrawal bill, with lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Alaeddin Boroujerdi citing IAEA inspections as enabling espionage. However, no bill passage or official action has followed in the subsequent three weeks, consistent with Tehran's historical pattern of threats since 2004 amid stalled JCPOA revival talks and sanctions pressures. Withdrawal would terminate IAEA safeguards, risk UN snapback sanctions, and spur regional proliferation fears, deterring Tehran despite war tensions; late-breaking diplomatic shifts or intensified attacks could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$113,699Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 91.5% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism toward recent rhetorical escalations. Late March 2026 US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants prompted parliament to fast-track a withdrawal bill, with lawmakers like Malek Shariati and Alaeddin Boroujerdi citing IAEA inspections as enabling espionage. However, no bill passage or official action has followed in the subsequent three weeks, consistent with Tehran's historical pattern of threats since 2004 amid stalled JCPOA revival talks and sanctions pressures. Withdrawal would terminate IAEA safeguards, risk UN snapback sanctions, and spur regional proliferation fears, deterring Tehran despite war tensions; late-breaking diplomatic shifts or intensified attacks could alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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