Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 hinges on the US presidential election outcome, with a Trump victory implying continued maximum pressure sanctions and low negotiation prospects, while a Harris administration might revive indirect talks through Oman mediators. Iran's reformist President Pezeshkian has signaled diplomatic openness since his July election, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's influence and IAEA reports of non-cooperation on uranium enrichment—now at near-weapons grade—sustain balance. October's Israel-Iran airstrikes and missile exchanges heightened tensions, pausing momentum. Tipping factors include the January 2025 inauguration, future IAEA censures, regional de-escalation signals, or executive actions on sanctions relief.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$439,698 Vol.
$439,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
$439,698 Vol.
$439,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 hinges on the US presidential election outcome, with a Trump victory implying continued maximum pressure sanctions and low negotiation prospects, while a Harris administration might revive indirect talks through Oman mediators. Iran's reformist President Pezeshkian has signaled diplomatic openness since his July election, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's influence and IAEA reports of non-cooperation on uranium enrichment—now at near-weapons grade—sustain balance. October's Israel-Iran airstrikes and missile exchanges heightened tensions, pausing momentum. Tipping factors include the January 2025 inauguration, future IAEA censures, regional de-escalation signals, or executive actions on sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$439,698Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 hinges on the US presidential election outcome, with a Trump victory implying continued maximum pressure sanctions and low negotiation prospects, while a Harris administration might revive indirect talks through Oman mediators. Iran's reformist President Pezeshkian has signaled diplomatic openness since his July election, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's influence and IAEA reports of non-cooperation on uranium enrichment—now at near-weapons grade—sustain balance. October's Israel-Iran airstrikes and missile exchanges heightened tensions, pausing momentum. Tipping factors include the January 2025 inauguration, future IAEA censures, regional de-escalation signals, or executive actions on sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$439,698Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 hinges on the US presidential election outcome, with a Trump victory implying continued maximum pressure sanctions and low negotiation prospects, while a Harris administration might revive indirect talks through Oman mediators. Iran's reformist President Pezeshkian has signaled diplomatic openness since his July election, yet Supreme Leader Khamenei's influence and IAEA reports of non-cooperation on uranium enrichment—now at near-weapons grade—sustain balance. October's Israel-Iran airstrikes and missile exchanges heightened tensions, pausing momentum. Tipping factors include the January 2025 inauguration, future IAEA censures, regional de-escalation signals, or executive actions on sanctions relief.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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