The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid economic pressures, sanctions, and prior protests. Recent August diplomatic activity around Strait of Hormuz access and threats of infrastructure retaliation reflect ongoing regime functionality rather than imminent breakdown, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 98.3% implied probability against collapse by September 30. Historical patterns of elite cohesion and suppression have reinforced short-term stability expectations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from renewed strikes causing territorial fragmentation or sudden elite defections, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre?
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre?
Sí
2% probabilidad
$1,553,809 Vol.
$1,553,809 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
$1,553,809 Vol.
$1,553,809 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid economic pressures, sanctions, and prior protests. Recent August diplomatic activity around Strait of Hormuz access and threats of infrastructure retaliation reflect ongoing regime functionality rather than imminent breakdown, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 98.3% implied probability against collapse by September 30. Historical patterns of elite cohesion and suppression have reinforced short-term stability expectations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from renewed strikes causing territorial fragmentation or sudden elite defections, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$1,553,809Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid economic pressures, sanctions, and prior protests. Recent August diplomatic activity around Strait of Hormuz access and threats of infrastructure retaliation reflect ongoing regime functionality rather than imminent breakdown, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 98.3% implied probability against collapse by September 30. Historical patterns of elite cohesion and suppression have reinforced short-term stability expectations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from renewed strikes causing territorial fragmentation or sudden elite defections, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,553,809Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid economic pressures, sanctions, and prior protests. Recent August diplomatic activity around Strait of Hormuz access and threats of infrastructure retaliation reflect ongoing regime functionality rather than imminent breakdown, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 98.3% implied probability against collapse by September 30. Historical patterns of elite cohesion and suppression have reinforced short-term stability expectations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation from renewed strikes causing territorial fragmentation or sudden elite defections, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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