Despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to forgo NATO membership aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks, no formal agreement has emerged to bar accession before 2027. February 2026 trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Geneva yielded no breakthrough on neutrality pledges, with Russia insisting on its core demands including permanent non-NATO status. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated on April 9 that Ukraine's path remains distant, requiring unanimous ally approval amid the unresolved war. Traders' 81.5% "No" consensus reflects stalled diplomacy, persistent military escalation signals, and absence of verified commitments, though late breakthroughs in negotiations could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$84,002 Vol.
$84,002 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$84,002 Vol.
$84,002 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to forgo NATO membership aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks, no formal agreement has emerged to bar accession before 2027. February 2026 trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Geneva yielded no breakthrough on neutrality pledges, with Russia insisting on its core demands including permanent non-NATO status. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated on April 9 that Ukraine's path remains distant, requiring unanimous ally approval amid the unresolved war. Traders' 81.5% "No" consensus reflects stalled diplomacy, persistent military escalation signals, and absence of verified commitments, though late breakthroughs in negotiations could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volumen
$84,002Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to forgo NATO membership aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks, no formal agreement has emerged to bar accession before 2027. February 2026 trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Geneva yielded no breakthrough on neutrality pledges, with Russia insisting on its core demands including permanent non-NATO status. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated on April 9 that Ukraine's path remains distant, requiring unanimous ally approval amid the unresolved war. Traders' 81.5% "No" consensus reflects stalled diplomacy, persistent military escalation signals, and absence of verified commitments, though late breakthroughs in negotiations could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volumen
$84,002Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to forgo NATO membership aspirations in exchange for Western security guarantees amid Russia-Ukraine peace talks, no formal agreement has emerged to bar accession before 2027. February 2026 trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Geneva yielded no breakthrough on neutrality pledges, with Russia insisting on its core demands including permanent non-NATO status. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated on April 9 that Ukraine's path remains distant, requiring unanimous ally approval amid the unresolved war. Traders' 81.5% "No" consensus reflects stalled diplomacy, persistent military escalation signals, and absence of verified commitments, though late breakthroughs in negotiations could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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