Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% for "No," driven by Ukraine's firm rejection of any pledge to forgo NATO membership, which President Zelenskyy has repeatedly described as essential security guarantees amid the Russia-Ukraine war. No diplomatic breakthroughs in recent talks—such as those in Jeddah or European forums over the past month—have signaled Kyiv conceding on NATO accession, a core Russian demand unmet in ceasefire negotiations. With the incoming U.S. administration's foreign policy still unfolding post-inauguration, traders price in negligible odds of such an agreement by March 31 absent a sudden, improbable escalation in multilateral diplomacy or bilateral concessions from Ukraine. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected peace summit outcomes or major policy reversals, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest stability in current positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
$78,045 Vol.
$78,045 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$78,045 Vol.
$78,045 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% for "No," driven by Ukraine's firm rejection of any pledge to forgo NATO membership, which President Zelenskyy has repeatedly described as essential security guarantees amid the Russia-Ukraine war. No diplomatic breakthroughs in recent talks—such as those in Jeddah or European forums over the past month—have signaled Kyiv conceding on NATO accession, a core Russian demand unmet in ceasefire negotiations. With the incoming U.S. administration's foreign policy still unfolding post-inauguration, traders price in negligible odds of such an agreement by March 31 absent a sudden, improbable escalation in multilateral diplomacy or bilateral concessions from Ukraine. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected peace summit outcomes or major policy reversals, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest stability in current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:41 PM ET
Volumen
$78,045Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% for "No," driven by Ukraine's firm rejection of any pledge to forgo NATO membership, which President Zelenskyy has repeatedly described as essential security guarantees amid the Russia-Ukraine war. No diplomatic breakthroughs in recent talks—such as those in Jeddah or European forums over the past month—have signaled Kyiv conceding on NATO accession, a core Russian demand unmet in ceasefire negotiations. With the incoming U.S. administration's foreign policy still unfolding post-inauguration, traders price in negligible odds of such an agreement by March 31 absent a sudden, improbable escalation in multilateral diplomacy or bilateral concessions from Ukraine. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected peace summit outcomes or major policy reversals, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest stability in current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volumen
$78,045Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.2% for "No," driven by Ukraine's firm rejection of any pledge to forgo NATO membership, which President Zelenskyy has repeatedly described as essential security guarantees amid the Russia-Ukraine war. No diplomatic breakthroughs in recent talks—such as those in Jeddah or European forums over the past month—have signaled Kyiv conceding on NATO accession, a core Russian demand unmet in ceasefire negotiations. With the incoming U.S. administration's foreign policy still unfolding post-inauguration, traders price in negligible odds of such an agreement by March 31 absent a sudden, improbable escalation in multilateral diplomacy or bilateral concessions from Ukraine. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpected peace summit outcomes or major policy reversals, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest stability in current positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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