Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de junio de 2027?
¿Un alto el fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania para el 30 de junio de 2027?
Sí
$83,320 Vol.
$83,320 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Sí
$83,320 Vol.
$83,320 Vol.
30 jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volumen
$83,320Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$83,320Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027, anchored by U.S. President Trump's recent brokering of a three-day truce from May 9-11 for Victory Day, including swaps of 2,000 prisoners of war—the latest in a series of humanitarian pauses following the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire in April. Building on February's Geneva trilateral talks and renewed 2025-2026 negotiations addressing security guarantees, territorial disputes, and de-escalation, prolonged conflict fatigue, waning Western aid, economic sanctions pressures, and mutual military exhaustion underpin this positioning after over four years of war. Late-breaking escalations, such as major offensives or diplomatic breakdowns, remain slim scenarios that could avert agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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