Trader consensus on the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms prices Democrats Sweep at 48.5% and Republicans Senate/Democrats House at 36.5%, reflecting strong Democratic generic ballot leads averaging D+3 to +6 in recent polls like Morning Consult's March 16-22 tracker (45%-42%) and persistent midterm backlash against President Trump's administration. Trump's approval has cratered to a 36% low in Reuters/Ipsos surveying amid Iran tensions, surging fuel prices, and collapsing independent support, amplifying historical patterns of 25-40 House seat losses for low-40s presidents. The House's full reelection cycle favors a Democratic flip, while Republicans' Senate map—defending 22 seats, many safe—bolsters hold probabilities despite competitive tossups. Primaries loom in swing states like Michigan and Georgia.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEquilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales
Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales
Demócratas Arrasan 49%
Título del ítem del grupo: Senado R, Cámara D 37%
Barrida Republicana 15%
Senado Demócrata, Cámara Republicana <1%
$4,152,707 Vol.
$4,152,707 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Gana un 4%
Demócratas Arrasan
49%
Senado Demócrata, Cámara Republicana
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Senado R, Cámara D
37%
Barrida Republicana
15%
Otro
1%
Demócratas Arrasan 49%
Título del ítem del grupo: Senado R, Cámara D 37%
Barrida Republicana 15%
Senado Demócrata, Cámara Republicana <1%
$4,152,707 Vol.
$4,152,707 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Gana un 4%
Demócratas Arrasan
$1,114,966 Vol.
49%
Senado Demócrata, Cámara Republicana
$578,075 Vol.
1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Senado R, Cámara D
$800,244 Vol.
37%
Barrida Republicana
$880,982 Vol.
15%
Otro
$779,514 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms prices Democrats Sweep at 48.5% and Republicans Senate/Democrats House at 36.5%, reflecting strong Democratic generic ballot leads averaging D+3 to +6 in recent polls like Morning Consult's March 16-22 tracker (45%-42%) and persistent midterm backlash against President Trump's administration. Trump's approval has cratered to a 36% low in Reuters/Ipsos surveying amid Iran tensions, surging fuel prices, and collapsing independent support, amplifying historical patterns of 25-40 House seat losses for low-40s presidents. The House's full reelection cycle favors a Democratic flip, while Republicans' Senate map—defending 22 seats, many safe—bolsters hold probabilities despite competitive tossups. Primaries loom in swing states like Michigan and Georgia.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$4,152,707Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms prices Democrats Sweep at 48.5% and Republicans Senate/Democrats House at 36.5%, reflecting strong Democratic generic ballot leads averaging D+3 to +6 in recent polls like Morning Consult's March 16-22 tracker (45%-42%) and persistent midterm backlash against President Trump's administration. Trump's approval has cratered to a 36% low in Reuters/Ipsos surveying amid Iran tensions, surging fuel prices, and collapsing independent support, amplifying historical patterns of 25-40 House seat losses for low-40s presidents. The House's full reelection cycle favors a Democratic flip, while Republicans' Senate map—defending 22 seats, many safe—bolsters hold probabilities despite competitive tossups. Primaries loom in swing states like Michigan and Georgia.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$4,152,707Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms prices Democrats Sweep at 48.5% and Republicans Senate/Democrats House at 36.5%, reflecting strong Democratic generic ballot leads averaging D+3 to +6 in recent polls like Morning Consult's March 16-22 tracker (45%-42%) and persistent midterm backlash against President Trump's administration. Trump's approval has cratered to a 36% low in Reuters/Ipsos surveying amid Iran tensions, surging fuel prices, and collapsing independent support, amplifying historical patterns of 25-40 House seat losses for low-40s presidents. The House's full reelection cycle favors a Democratic flip, while Republicans' Senate map—defending 22 seats, many safe—bolsters hold probabilities despite competitive tossups. Primaries loom in swing states like Michigan and Georgia.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes