Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 24.6% edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting evenly split sentiment on the margin. Paxton's momentum stems from his strong conservative base appeal, bolstered by the 2023 state Senate impeachment acquittal and alignment with Trump-aligned voters upset over Cornyn's bipartisan deals on border security and Ukraine aid. Cornyn counters with incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements, keeping the race competitive among low-turnout GOP primary voters. No major developments in the past 30 days have emerged, but upcoming early voting turnout, last-minute endorsements, or debate performances could widen the projected under-10% margin separating top outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPaxton 9%+ 24.9%
Cornyn 9%+ 21%
Cornyn <3% 11.3%
Cornyn 3–6% 10%
$20,518 Vol.
$20,518 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
25%
Paxton 6–9%
6%
Paxton 3–6%
10%
Paxton <3%
8%
Cornyn <3%
11%
Cornyn 3–6%
10%
Cornyn 6–9%
8%
Cornyn 9%+
21%
Paxton 9%+ 24.9%
Cornyn 9%+ 21%
Cornyn <3% 11.3%
Cornyn 3–6% 10%
$20,518 Vol.
$20,518 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$5,319 Vol.
25%
Paxton 6–9%
$3,863 Vol.
6%
Paxton 3–6%
$3,029 Vol.
10%
Paxton <3%
$5,086 Vol.
8%
Cornyn <3%
$0 Vol.
11%
Cornyn 3–6%
$0 Vol.
10%
Cornyn 6–9%
$3,221 Vol.
8%
Cornyn 9%+
$0 Vol.
21%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 24.6% edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting evenly split sentiment on the margin. Paxton's momentum stems from his strong conservative base appeal, bolstered by the 2023 state Senate impeachment acquittal and alignment with Trump-aligned voters upset over Cornyn's bipartisan deals on border security and Ukraine aid. Cornyn counters with incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements, keeping the race competitive among low-turnout GOP primary voters. No major developments in the past 30 days have emerged, but upcoming early voting turnout, last-minute endorsements, or debate performances could widen the projected under-10% margin separating top outcomes.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volumen
$20,518Fecha de finalización
May 25, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 24.6% edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting evenly split sentiment on the margin. Paxton's momentum stems from his strong conservative base appeal, bolstered by the 2023 state Senate impeachment acquittal and alignment with Trump-aligned voters upset over Cornyn's bipartisan deals on border security and Ukraine aid. Cornyn counters with incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements, keeping the race competitive among low-turnout GOP primary voters. No major developments in the past 30 days have emerged, but upcoming early voting turnout, last-minute endorsements, or debate performances could widen the projected under-10% margin separating top outcomes.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$20,518Fecha de finalización
May 25, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 24.6% edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting evenly split sentiment on the margin. Paxton's momentum stems from his strong conservative base appeal, bolstered by the 2023 state Senate impeachment acquittal and alignment with Trump-aligned voters upset over Cornyn's bipartisan deals on border security and Ukraine aid. Cornyn counters with incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements, keeping the race competitive among low-turnout GOP primary voters. No major developments in the past 30 days have emerged, but upcoming early voting turnout, last-minute endorsements, or debate performances could widen the projected under-10% margin separating top outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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