Steve Cohen’s May 15 announcement that he will not seek reelection in the redrawn Tennessee 9th District—citing the legislature’s map changes—has driven the current trader consensus favoring Justin Pearson. Pearson, the state representative who launched his primary challenge last October with backing from Justice Democrats and Leaders We Deserve, now faces a narrower field that includes DeVante Hill and others. Ongoing redistricting lawsuits and endorsements from a majority of House Democratic colleagues further support Pearson’s position ahead of the August 6 primary. The implied probabilities reflect these developments and the absence of comparable recent momentum for remaining challengers.