Democrat James Talarico secured the nomination in Texas' March 3 primary, setting up a general election against the Republican runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26. Recent March polls, including PPP (March 11) and Impact Research (March 17), show Talarico with narrow leads over both—48-42% vs. Cornyn and 44-43% vs. Paxton—highlighting a competitive race amid Texas' Republican lean. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 56%, diverging from polling to emphasize GOP base strength, historical Senate hold patterns in red states, and Paxton's surge in runoff surveys (e.g., Quantus March 24: 49-41%). Turnout dynamics and national midterm trends could tip the balance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Texas
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Texas
$158,741 Vol.
$158,741 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
56%
Demócrata
44%
$158,741 Vol.
$158,741 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$88,047 Vol.
56%
Demócrata
$70,694 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democrat James Talarico secured the nomination in Texas' March 3 primary, setting up a general election against the Republican runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26. Recent March polls, including PPP (March 11) and Impact Research (March 17), show Talarico with narrow leads over both—48-42% vs. Cornyn and 44-43% vs. Paxton—highlighting a competitive race amid Texas' Republican lean. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 56%, diverging from polling to emphasize GOP base strength, historical Senate hold patterns in red states, and Paxton's surge in runoff surveys (e.g., Quantus March 24: 49-41%). Turnout dynamics and national midterm trends could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volumen
$158,741Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democrat James Talarico secured the nomination in Texas' March 3 primary, setting up a general election against the Republican runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26. Recent March polls, including PPP (March 11) and Impact Research (March 17), show Talarico with narrow leads over both—48-42% vs. Cornyn and 44-43% vs. Paxton—highlighting a competitive race amid Texas' Republican lean. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 56%, diverging from polling to emphasize GOP base strength, historical Senate hold patterns in red states, and Paxton's surge in runoff surveys (e.g., Quantus March 24: 49-41%). Turnout dynamics and national midterm trends could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$158,741Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democrat James Talarico secured the nomination in Texas' March 3 primary, setting up a general election against the Republican runoff winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26. Recent March polls, including PPP (March 11) and Impact Research (March 17), show Talarico with narrow leads over both—48-42% vs. Cornyn and 44-43% vs. Paxton—highlighting a competitive race amid Texas' Republican lean. Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 56%, diverging from polling to emphasize GOP base strength, historical Senate hold patterns in red states, and Paxton's surge in runoff surveys (e.g., Quantus March 24: 49-41%). Turnout dynamics and national midterm trends could tip the balance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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