Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 92% implied probability to retain FL-01, driven by the district's solid R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters, and incumbent Jimmy Patronis's commanding fundraising lead—nearly $3 million raised versus minimal challengers—ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primary. Patronis, who won the 2025 special election replacing Matt Gaetz, faces a crowded nine-candidate Republican field lacking serious threats, while Democrat Gay Valimont pursues a third bid after 34% in 2024. Historical GOP margins over 30 points underscore the hold's strength, though a primary upset by a weaker nominee or major scandal could narrow the path despite high structural barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFL-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
FL-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$74,868 Vol.
$74,868 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$74,868 Vol.
$74,868 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$60,160 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$14,708 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 92% implied probability to retain FL-01, driven by the district's solid R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters, and incumbent Jimmy Patronis's commanding fundraising lead—nearly $3 million raised versus minimal challengers—ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primary. Patronis, who won the 2025 special election replacing Matt Gaetz, faces a crowded nine-candidate Republican field lacking serious threats, while Democrat Gay Valimont pursues a third bid after 34% in 2024. Historical GOP margins over 30 points underscore the hold's strength, though a primary upset by a weaker nominee or major scandal could narrow the path despite high structural barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$74,868Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 92% implied probability to retain FL-01, driven by the district's solid R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters, and incumbent Jimmy Patronis's commanding fundraising lead—nearly $3 million raised versus minimal challengers—ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primary. Patronis, who won the 2025 special election replacing Matt Gaetz, faces a crowded nine-candidate Republican field lacking serious threats, while Democrat Gay Valimont pursues a third bid after 34% in 2024. Historical GOP margins over 30 points underscore the hold's strength, though a primary upset by a weaker nominee or major scandal could narrow the path despite high structural barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$74,868Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns Republicans a 92% implied probability to retain FL-01, driven by the district's solid R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index, consistent safe Republican ratings across forecasters, and incumbent Jimmy Patronis's commanding fundraising lead—nearly $3 million raised versus minimal challengers—ahead of the April 24 filing deadline and August 18 primary. Patronis, who won the 2025 special election replacing Matt Gaetz, faces a crowded nine-candidate Republican field lacking serious threats, while Democrat Gay Valimont pursues a third bid after 34% in 2024. Historical GOP margins over 30 points underscore the hold's strength, though a primary upset by a weaker nominee or major scandal could narrow the path despite high structural barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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