The San Francisco Bay Area’s 11th district maintains a deep Democratic structural advantage, reflected in 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35, which drives the 98.3% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, yet the June 2 primary advanced only two Democrats—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—leaving no competitive Republican on the ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent 80%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented realignment in turnout or voter registration that has not materialized in decades.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-11 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-11 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
98%
Partido Republicano
2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$6,029 Vol.
98%
Partido Republicano
$2,143 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The San Francisco Bay Area’s 11th district maintains a deep Democratic structural advantage, reflected in 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35, which drives the 98.3% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, yet the June 2 primary advanced only two Democrats—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—leaving no competitive Republican on the ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent 80%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented realignment in turnout or voter registration that has not materialized in decades.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$8,172Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The San Francisco Bay Area’s 11th district maintains a deep Democratic structural advantage, reflected in 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35, which drives the 98.3% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, yet the June 2 primary advanced only two Democrats—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—leaving no competitive Republican on the ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent 80%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented realignment in turnout or voter registration that has not materialized in decades.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$8,172Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The San Francisco Bay Area’s 11th district maintains a deep Democratic structural advantage, reflected in 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35, which drives the 98.3% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, yet the June 2 primary advanced only two Democrats—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—leaving no competitive Republican on the ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s consistent 80%+ Democratic margins in recent cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented realignment in turnout or voter registration that has not materialized in decades.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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