Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-46 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-46 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$11,084 Vol.
$11,084 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
6%
$11,084 Vol.
$11,084 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$2,449 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$8,635 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$11,084Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,084Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lou Correa's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late March—combined with CA-46's safe Democratic partisan lean drives trader consensus to a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party retaining the seat in the November general election. The district's heavy Democratic voter registration and top-two primary field, featuring Correa alongside low-resource Democrats Francisco Bahena, Christian Mendez, and Armando Perez-Serrato plus underfunded Republican David Pan, position a Democrat to easily advance past June 2. No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Late challenges could arise from a GOP primary upset, scandal, or national midterm wave, but historical precedents for such flips in safe seats are rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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