Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 44th congressional district House seat, driven by the district's strong D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's consistent landslide victories—including 71% in the 2024 general election—and her commanding $1.17 million cash-on-hand advantage over Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $7,800 as of late March. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Democratic primary threats have emerged, reinforcing the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal engulfing Barragán, an unexpectedly strong Republican primary surge, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents and fundraising gaps present significant barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-44 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-44 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$21,535 Vol.
$21,535 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
6%
$21,535 Vol.
$21,535 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$13,354 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$8,181 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 44th congressional district House seat, driven by the district's strong D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's consistent landslide victories—including 71% in the 2024 general election—and her commanding $1.17 million cash-on-hand advantage over Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $7,800 as of late March. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Democratic primary threats have emerged, reinforcing the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal engulfing Barragán, an unexpectedly strong Republican primary surge, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents and fundraising gaps present significant barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volumen
$21,535Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 44th congressional district House seat, driven by the district's strong D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's consistent landslide victories—including 71% in the 2024 general election—and her commanding $1.17 million cash-on-hand advantage over Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $7,800 as of late March. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Democratic primary threats have emerged, reinforcing the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal engulfing Barragán, an unexpectedly strong Republican primary surge, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents and fundraising gaps present significant barriers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,535Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 44th congressional district House seat, driven by the district's strong D+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Nanette Barragán's consistent landslide victories—including 71% in the 2024 general election—and her commanding $1.17 million cash-on-hand advantage over Republican challenger Genevieve Angel's $7,800 as of late March. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Democratic primary threats have emerged, reinforcing the safe Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal engulfing Barragán, an unexpectedly strong Republican primary surge, or a national midterm wave, though historical precedents and fundraising gaps present significant barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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