A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Andy Burnham holds a strong lead in the Makerfield by-election market due to his profile as Greater Manchester Mayor, local roots in the constituency, and Labour Party backing after Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 to create a parliamentary seat for him. This positions Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if elected. Recent polls, including Opinium surveys, show Burnham ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by around five points among likely voters, though the race remains competitive in a seat where Reform placed second in 2024. Minor candidates from Restore Britain, Conservatives, and others trail far behind, with limited vote-splitting impact. The June 18 vote timing and national attention on the leadership implications reinforce trader consensus around Burnham's frontrunner status.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Jun 18 2026
Makerfield by-election held with Andy Burnham as clear frontrunner
Andy Burnham jumps to 98%14%
The by-election took place with Burnham widely expected to win due to his strong local support and weakened opposition. Market prices surged to near certainty for Burnham's victory, reflecting consensus on the outcome before official results.
Jun 10 2026
Robert Kenyon's poor media performances further weaken Reform UK campaign
Robert Kenyon drops to 14%10%
Kenyon's disastrous interviews and public appearances, including on BBC Question Time, highlighted his controversial views and inability to effectively defend them, leading to a further collapse in his market price to single digits.
May 27 2026
Reform UK's Robert Kenyon faces backlash over sexist and far-right social media posts
Robert Kenyon drops to 16%14%
Revelations about Kenyon's controversial social media history led to negative media coverage and public criticism, damaging his campaign and causing his market price to decline sharply from around 30% to below 20%.
May 27 2026
Controversy over Robert Kenyon's past social media posts intensifies
Robert Kenyon drops to 26%6%
Reports emerged detailing offensive and far-right linked social media posts by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, leading to negative media coverage and damaging his campaign, reflected in a decline in his market price.
May 25 2026
Restore Britain announces Rebecca Shepherd as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Rebecca Shepherd dips to 5%1%
Restore Britain, a new party, announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd as their candidate, introducing a right-wing challenger that could split the vote and impact Reform UK's support.
May 23 2026
First Survation poll shows Andy Burnham narrowly leading Reform UK's Robert Kenyon
Andy Burnham rises to 74%4%
The Survation poll indicated a tight race with Burnham at 43% and Kenyon at 40%, reflecting a competitive contest and causing some market volatility. This poll validated Kenyon's local appeal but also Burnham's strong personal vote, keeping both candidates' prices active.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham declares Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham publicly framed the by-election as a critical moment for the country and emphasized his understanding of local concerns, reinforcing his campaign momentum and market confidence.
May 22 2026
Andy Burnham launches campaign, calls Makerfield by-election a 'turning point for British politics'
Andy Burnham rises to 70%4%
Burnham's campaign launch and media appearances emphasized his commitment to local issues and national leadership ambitions, boosting market confidence in his win. His statements on immigration and public trust resonated with voters, supporting his market price increase to mid-60s percentages.
May 21 2026
Green Party candidate Chris Kennedy withdraws from Makerfield by-election
Chris Kennedy withdrew his candidacy citing personal reasons, reducing the number of minor candidates and potentially affecting vote distribution, though with limited market impact.
May 19 2026
Reform UK selects Robert Kenyon as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Robert Kenyon plunges to 31%19%
Reform UK officially selected local councillor Robert Kenyon as their candidate, positioning him as the main challenger to Burnham and causing initial market interest in his chances.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 70%6%
Labour's National Executive Committee officially selected Andy Burnham as their candidate, solidifying his position and boosting market confidence in his chances. This led to a significant increase in Burnham's market price.
May 19 2026
Andy Burnham officially announced as Labour candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham rises to 66%4%
Labour announced Burnham as their candidate, highlighting his local roots and leadership ambitions. This solidified market confidence in his victory, pushing his price higher. The announcement also framed the contest as a key political moment, increasing attention on Burnham's campaign.
May 15 2026
Labour selects Andy Burnham as candidate for Makerfield by-election
Andy Burnham jumps to 62%12%
Labour's National Executive Committee approved Andy Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election after MP Josh Simons resigned to make way for him. This official endorsement positioned Burnham as the frontrunner, causing his market price to rise from 50% to around 62%.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Andy Burnham" con 100%, seguido de "Simon Finkelstein" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield" ha generado $8.8 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el May 14, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield" es "Andy Burnham" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Simon Finkelstein" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $8.8 million operados en “Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 100¢ para "Andy Burnham" en el mercado "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 100% de que "Andy Burnham" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 100¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 0¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield" ha sido resuelto. El resultado final ha sido determinado y el mercado ya no está abierto para operar. Aún puedes revisar las probabilidades históricas, probabilidades de resultados y comentarios en esta página.
El mercado "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield" tiene una comunidad activa de 170 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Makerfield". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes