Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.8% implied probability for a Democratic hold in California's 34th Congressional District, a Cook-rated Solid Democratic seat with a D+28 partisan lean reflecting heavy Democratic presidential margins and consistent general election wins since 1990. Recent candidate certification on March 26 confirmed a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 dominated by Democrats—Gomez, Arthur Dixon, Angela Gonzales-Torres, and Robert Lucero—against lone Republican Calvin Lee, who trails significantly in fundraising where Gomez holds over $650,000 cash on hand. Ongoing intra-Democratic feuds echo past cycles, but structural advantages and weak GOP opposition sustain the lopsided odds; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset or late scandal derailing the frontrunner before the November 3 general.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-34 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-34 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$17,069 Vol.
$17,069 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$17,069 Vol.
$17,069 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$6,837 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$10,233 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.8% implied probability for a Democratic hold in California's 34th Congressional District, a Cook-rated Solid Democratic seat with a D+28 partisan lean reflecting heavy Democratic presidential margins and consistent general election wins since 1990. Recent candidate certification on March 26 confirmed a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 dominated by Democrats—Gomez, Arthur Dixon, Angela Gonzales-Torres, and Robert Lucero—against lone Republican Calvin Lee, who trails significantly in fundraising where Gomez holds over $650,000 cash on hand. Ongoing intra-Democratic feuds echo past cycles, but structural advantages and weak GOP opposition sustain the lopsided odds; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset or late scandal derailing the frontrunner before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$17,069Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.8% implied probability for a Democratic hold in California's 34th Congressional District, a Cook-rated Solid Democratic seat with a D+28 partisan lean reflecting heavy Democratic presidential margins and consistent general election wins since 1990. Recent candidate certification on March 26 confirmed a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 dominated by Democrats—Gomez, Arthur Dixon, Angela Gonzales-Torres, and Robert Lucero—against lone Republican Calvin Lee, who trails significantly in fundraising where Gomez holds over $650,000 cash on hand. Ongoing intra-Democratic feuds echo past cycles, but structural advantages and weak GOP opposition sustain the lopsided odds; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset or late scandal derailing the frontrunner before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$17,069Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.8% implied probability for a Democratic hold in California's 34th Congressional District, a Cook-rated Solid Democratic seat with a D+28 partisan lean reflecting heavy Democratic presidential margins and consistent general election wins since 1990. Recent candidate certification on March 26 confirmed a crowded top-two primary field on June 2 dominated by Democrats—Gomez, Arthur Dixon, Angela Gonzales-Torres, and Robert Lucero—against lone Republican Calvin Lee, who trails significantly in fundraising where Gomez holds over $650,000 cash on hand. Ongoing intra-Democratic feuds echo past cycles, but structural advantages and weak GOP opposition sustain the lopsided odds; realistic challenges include a GOP primary upset or late scandal derailing the frontrunner before the November 3 general.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes