Morena's commanding 77% implied probability in the 2027 Mexican legislative election market stems from its sustained dominance since the 2024 victory, where the party and allies secured a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies and near-supermajority in the Senate under President Claudia Sheinbaum. Recent May 2026 opinion polls show Morena holding 39-49% voting intention, far ahead of PRI, PAN, and MC, reflecting continued public support for the Fourth Transformation agenda and high presidential approval. Fragmented opposition parties face structural challenges in mobilizing voters a year before the June 6, 2027, vote, while Morena benefits from incumbency, coalition stability with PVEM and PT, and control of key institutions. Traders price these dynamics into the wide gap separating Morena from trailing options.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMorena 77.2%
PRI 7.8%
PAN 2.3%
MC <1%
$49,598 Vol.
$49,598 Vol.
6 jun 2027
Morena
77%
PRI
13%
PAN
2%
MC
1%
PVEM
<1%
PT
<1%
Morena 77.2%
PRI 7.8%
PAN 2.3%
MC <1%
$49,598 Vol.
$49,598 Vol.
6 jun 2027
Morena
$22,347 Vol.
77%
PRI
$4,451 Vol.
13%
PAN
$5,623 Vol.
2%
MC
$6,997 Vol.
1%
PVEM
$5,460 Vol.
<1%
PT
$4,721 Vol.
<1%
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena's commanding 77% implied probability in the 2027 Mexican legislative election market stems from its sustained dominance since the 2024 victory, where the party and allies secured a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies and near-supermajority in the Senate under President Claudia Sheinbaum. Recent May 2026 opinion polls show Morena holding 39-49% voting intention, far ahead of PRI, PAN, and MC, reflecting continued public support for the Fourth Transformation agenda and high presidential approval. Fragmented opposition parties face structural challenges in mobilizing voters a year before the June 6, 2027, vote, while Morena benefits from incumbency, coalition stability with PVEM and PT, and control of key institutions. Traders price these dynamics into the wide gap separating Morena from trailing options.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volumen
$49,598Fecha de finalización
6 jun 2027Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena's commanding 77% implied probability in the 2027 Mexican legislative election market stems from its sustained dominance since the 2024 victory, where the party and allies secured a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies and near-supermajority in the Senate under President Claudia Sheinbaum. Recent May 2026 opinion polls show Morena holding 39-49% voting intention, far ahead of PRI, PAN, and MC, reflecting continued public support for the Fourth Transformation agenda and high presidential approval. Fragmented opposition parties face structural challenges in mobilizing voters a year before the June 6, 2027, vote, while Morena benefits from incumbency, coalition stability with PVEM and PT, and control of key institutions. Traders price these dynamics into the wide gap separating Morena from trailing options.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Volumen
$49,598Fecha de finalización
6 jun 2027Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Morena's commanding 77% implied probability in the 2027 Mexican legislative election market stems from its sustained dominance since the 2024 victory, where the party and allies secured a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies and near-supermajority in the Senate under President Claudia Sheinbaum. Recent May 2026 opinion polls show Morena holding 39-49% voting intention, far ahead of PRI, PAN, and MC, reflecting continued public support for the Fourth Transformation agenda and high presidential approval. Fragmented opposition parties face structural challenges in mobilizing voters a year before the June 6, 2027, vote, while Morena benefits from incumbency, coalition stability with PVEM and PT, and control of key institutions. Traders price these dynamics into the wide gap separating Morena from trailing options.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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