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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?

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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?

Iván Cepeda Castro 72%

Paloma Valencia 20.3%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.4%

Juan Carlos Pinzón <1%

Polymarket

$1,667,129 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 72%

Paloma Valencia 20.3%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.4%

Juan Carlos Pinzón <1%

Polymarket

$1,667,129 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$48,109 Vol.

72%

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Paloma Valencia

$207,067 Vol.

20%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$465,858 Vol.

4%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$35,706 Vol.

1%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo

$92,234 Vol.

1%

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Gustavo Bolívar

$69,848 Vol.

1%

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Juan Manuel Galán

$66,163 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$20,070 Vol.

<1%

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Sergio Fajardo

$48,653 Vol.

<1%

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Vicky Dávila

$234,491 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez

$147,779 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo

$32,880 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$21,319 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$25,906 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$25,604 Vol.

<1%

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Claudia López

$50,884 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras

$38,059 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, 2026, at 71.5 implied probability, driven by his consistent lead in recent polls following the March 8 legislative elections where his left-wing coalition secured the largest congressional bloc amid low turnout. The latest Centro Nacional de Consultoría survey shows Cepeda at 34.5% voting intention, ahead of surging center-right senator Paloma Valencia at 22.2%—elevating her odds to 20.3% after displacing right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (now 4.4%)—with others trailing far behind. No candidate yet polls above 50% needed for outright victory, leaving room for runoff dynamics, campaign shifts, or endorsements to alter trajectories ahead of the single-round ballot.

Trader consensus favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, 2026, at 71.5 implied probability, driven by his consistent lead in recent polls following the March 8 legislative elections where his left-wing coalition secured the largest congressional bloc amid low turnout. The latest Centro Nacional de Consultoría survey shows Cepeda at 34.5% voting intention, ahead of surging center-right senator Paloma Valencia at 22.2%—elevating her odds to 20.3% after displacing right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (now 4.4%)—with others trailing far behind. No candidate yet polls above 50% needed for outright victory, leaving room for runoff dynamics, campaign shifts, or endorsements to alter trajectories ahead of the single-round ballot.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, 2026, at 71.5 implied probability, driven by his consistent lead in recent polls following the March 8 legislative elections where his left-wing coalition secured the largest congressional bloc amid low turnout. The latest Centro Nacional de Consultoría survey shows Cepeda at 34.5% voting intention, ahead of surging center-right senator Paloma Valencia at 22.2%—elevating her odds to 20.3% after displacing right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (now 4.4%)—with others trailing far behind. No candidate yet polls above 50% needed for outright victory, leaving room for runoff dynamics, campaign shifts, or endorsements to alter trajectories ahead of the single-round ballot.

Trader consensus favors Historic Pact senator Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's presidential first-round election on May 31, 2026, at 71.5 implied probability, driven by his consistent lead in recent polls following the March 8 legislative elections where his left-wing coalition secured the largest congressional bloc amid low turnout. The latest Centro Nacional de Consultoría survey shows Cepeda at 34.5% voting intention, ahead of surging center-right senator Paloma Valencia at 22.2%—elevating her odds to 20.3% after displacing right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (now 4.4%)—with others trailing far behind. No candidate yet polls above 50% needed for outright victory, leaving room for runoff dynamics, campaign shifts, or endorsements to alter trajectories ahead of the single-round ballot.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

" ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 18 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 72%, seguido de "Paloma Valencia" con 20%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 72¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 72% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" ha generado $1.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 23, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?", explora los 18 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 72%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 72% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Paloma Valencia" con 20%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.