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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?

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Mundo·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?

Iván Cepeda Castro 72%

Paloma Valencia 20.2%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.4%

Juan Carlos Pinzón <1%

Polymarket

$1,658,193 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 72%

Paloma Valencia 20.2%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.4%

Juan Carlos Pinzón <1%

Polymarket

$1,658,193 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$48,107 Vol.

72%

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Paloma Valencia

$207,050 Vol.

20%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$465,838 Vol.

4%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$29,133 Vol.

1%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo

$92,233 Vol.

1%

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Gustavo Bolívar

$67,847 Vol.

1%

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Juan Manuel Galán

$66,162 Vol.

<1%

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Sergio Fajardo

$48,651 Vol.

<1%

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Vicky Dávila

$234,490 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez

$147,778 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo

$32,879 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$21,318 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$25,905 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$25,603 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$19,762 Vol.

<1%

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Claudia López

$50,883 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras

$38,058 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round at 71.5%, reflecting his strong positioning as a leading Pacto Histórico candidate amid President Gustavo Petro's low approval ratings and the left's search for a successor. Recent polling aggregates show Cepeda topping leftist preferences with solid support in urban centers and among progressive voters, while the fragmented center-right field—led by Paloma Valencia at 20.3% from Centro Democrático—struggles with multiple contenders like Sergio Fajardo and Vicky Dávila splitting votes. No major announcements or primaries have occurred in the past 30 days, but trader odds imply Cepeda's base turnout edge in the May 2026 first round vote, with a runoff likely if no candidate exceeds 50%. Upcoming party conventions could shift dynamics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round at 71.5%, reflecting his strong positioning as a leading Pacto Histórico candidate amid President Gustavo Petro's low approval ratings and the left's search for a successor. Recent polling aggregates show Cepeda topping leftist preferences with solid support in urban centers and among progressive voters, while the fragmented center-right field—led by Paloma Valencia at 20.3% from Centro Democrático—struggles with multiple contenders like Sergio Fajardo and Vicky Dávila splitting votes. No major announcements or primaries have occurred in the past 30 days, but trader odds imply Cepeda's base turnout edge in the May 2026 first round vote, with a runoff likely if no candidate exceeds 50%. Upcoming party conventions could shift dynamics.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round at 71.5%, reflecting his strong positioning as a leading Pacto Histórico candidate amid President Gustavo Petro's low approval ratings and the left's search for a successor. Recent polling aggregates show Cepeda topping leftist preferences with solid support in urban centers and among progressive voters, while the fragmented center-right field—led by Paloma Valencia at 20.3% from Centro Democrático—struggles with multiple contenders like Sergio Fajardo and Vicky Dávila splitting votes. No major announcements or primaries have occurred in the past 30 days, but trader odds imply Cepeda's base turnout edge in the May 2026 first round vote, with a runoff likely if no candidate exceeds 50%. Upcoming party conventions could shift dynamics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round at 71.5%, reflecting his strong positioning as a leading Pacto Histórico candidate amid President Gustavo Petro's low approval ratings and the left's search for a successor. Recent polling aggregates show Cepeda topping leftist preferences with solid support in urban centers and among progressive voters, while the fragmented center-right field—led by Paloma Valencia at 20.3% from Centro Democrático—struggles with multiple contenders like Sergio Fajardo and Vicky Dávila splitting votes. No major announcements or primaries have occurred in the past 30 days, but trader odds imply Cepeda's base turnout edge in the May 2026 first round vote, with a runoff likely if no candidate exceeds 50%. Upcoming party conventions could shift dynamics.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

" ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 18 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 72%, seguido de "Paloma Valencia" con 20%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 72¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 72% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" ha generado $1.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 23, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?", explora los 18 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" es "Iván Cepeda Castro" con 72%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 72% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Paloma Valencia" con 20%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para " ¿Ganador de la primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.