Market icon
Política·Primarias

KY-04 Ganador de las primarias republicanas

Market icon
Política·Primarias

KY-04 Ganador de las primarias republicanas

Thomas Massie 70%

Ed Gallrein 30.0%

Nicole Lee Ethington <1%

Robert Wells Jr. <1%

Polymarket

$150,963 Vol.

Thomas Massie 70%

Ed Gallrein 30.0%

Nicole Lee Ethington <1%

Robert Wells Jr. <1%

Polymarket

$150,963 Vol.

Thomas Massie

$104,920 Vol.

70%

Ed Gallrein

$46,043 Vol.

30%

Nicole Lee Ethington

$0 Vol.

<1%

Robert Wells Jr.

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a strong lead in trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting his seven-term record, libertarian-leaning base, and history of fending off challengers despite frequent clashes with GOP leadership. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and Trump-endorsed fifth-generation Kentucky farmer, sits at 30% amid heavy outside spending—over $5 million from pro-Trump and pro-Israel super PACs like MAGA KY and RJC Victory Fund—fueled by President Trump's March 11 rally and repeated attacks labeling Massie the "worst" Republican. Recent Northern Kentucky voter interviews show mixed sentiment, with no public polls shifting odds, underscoring incumbency edge and uncertainty in a low-turnout primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$150,963
Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a strong lead in trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting his seven-term record, libertarian-leaning base, and history of fending off challengers despite frequent clashes with GOP leadership. Challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and Trump-endorsed fifth-generation Kentucky farmer, sits at 30% amid heavy outside spending—over $5 million from pro-Trump and pro-Israel super PACs like MAGA KY and RJC Victory Fund—fueled by President Trump's March 11 rally and repeated attacks labeling Massie the "worst" Republican. Recent Northern Kentucky voter interviews show mixed sentiment, with no public polls shifting odds, underscoring incumbency edge and uncertainty in a low-turnout primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$150,963
Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"KY-04 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Thomas Massie" con 70%, seguido de "Ed Gallrein" con 30%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 70¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "KY-04 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" ha generado $151K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 1, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "KY-04 Ganador de las primarias republicanas", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "KY-04 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" es "Thomas Massie" con 70%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 70% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Ed Gallrein" con 30%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "KY-04 Ganador de las primarias republicanas" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.