Tisza Party's dominant 75.5% implied probability in the popular vote for Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary election reflects sustained polling leads, with recent surveys like Medián's November poll showing Tisza at 46% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 29% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza) has surged on momentum from its June 2024 European Parliament win, where it topped Fidesz despite the incumbents' long dominance under Viktor Orbán, fueled by public discontent over inflation, EU fund disputes, and scandals including a controversial child pardon. Massive opposition rallies underscore shifting sentiment in Hungary's proportional representation system, though Fidesz's organizational edge and potential coalition dynamics keep the race viable absent further catalysts like primaries or economic shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTisza 76%
Fidesz–KDNP 25%
Otro <1%
$103,755 Vol.
$103,755 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
25%
Tisza
76%
Otro
<1%
Tisza 76%
Fidesz–KDNP 25%
Otro <1%
$103,755 Vol.
$103,755 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
$57,852 Vol.
25%
Tisza
$45,904 Vol.
76%
Otro
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Tisza Party's dominant 75.5% implied probability in the popular vote for Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary election reflects sustained polling leads, with recent surveys like Medián's November poll showing Tisza at 46% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 29% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza) has surged on momentum from its June 2024 European Parliament win, where it topped Fidesz despite the incumbents' long dominance under Viktor Orbán, fueled by public discontent over inflation, EU fund disputes, and scandals including a controversial child pardon. Massive opposition rallies underscore shifting sentiment in Hungary's proportional representation system, though Fidesz's organizational edge and potential coalition dynamics keep the race viable absent further catalysts like primaries or economic shocks.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Mercado abierto: Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volumen
$103,755Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Tisza Party's dominant 75.5% implied probability in the popular vote for Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary election reflects sustained polling leads, with recent surveys like Medián's November poll showing Tisza at 46% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 29% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza) has surged on momentum from its June 2024 European Parliament win, where it topped Fidesz despite the incumbents' long dominance under Viktor Orbán, fueled by public discontent over inflation, EU fund disputes, and scandals including a controversial child pardon. Massive opposition rallies underscore shifting sentiment in Hungary's proportional representation system, though Fidesz's organizational edge and potential coalition dynamics keep the race viable absent further catalysts like primaries or economic shocks.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volumen
$103,755Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tisza Party's dominant 75.5% implied probability in the popular vote for Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary election reflects sustained polling leads, with recent surveys like Medián's November poll showing Tisza at 46% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 29% among decided voters. Péter Magyar's Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza) has surged on momentum from its June 2024 European Parliament win, where it topped Fidesz despite the incumbents' long dominance under Viktor Orbán, fueled by public discontent over inflation, EU fund disputes, and scandals including a controversial child pardon. Massive opposition rallies underscore shifting sentiment in Hungary's proportional representation system, though Fidesz's organizational edge and potential coalition dynamics keep the race viable absent further catalysts like primaries or economic shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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