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Elecciones parlamentarias en Hungría: Ganador del voto popular

Market icon

Elecciones parlamentarias en Hungría: Ganador del voto popular

Tisza 76%

Fidesz–KDNP 25%

Otro <1%

Polymarket

$104,482 Vol.

Tisza 76%

Fidesz–KDNP 25%

Otro <1%

Polymarket

$104,482 Vol.

Market icon

Fidesz–KDNP

$58,379 Vol.

25%

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Tisza

$46,103 Vol.

76%

Market icon

Otro

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.

Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.

Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones parlamentarias en Hungría: Ganador del voto popular" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Tisza" con 76%, seguido de "Fidesz–KDNP" con 25%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 76¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones parlamentarias en Hungría: Ganador del voto popular" ha generado $104.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 5, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones parlamentarias en Hungría: Ganador del voto popular", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones parlamentarias en Hungría: Ganador del voto popular" es "Tisza" con 76%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 76% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Fidesz–KDNP" con 25%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones parlamentarias en Hungría: Ganador del voto popular" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.