Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTisza 76%
Fidesz–KDNP 25%
Otro <1%
$104,482 Vol.
$104,482 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
25%
Tisza
76%
Otro
<1%
Tisza 76%
Fidesz–KDNP 25%
Otro <1%
$104,482 Vol.
$104,482 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
$58,379 Vol.
25%
Tisza
$46,103 Vol.
76%
Otro
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Mercado abierto: Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volumen
$104,482Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volumen
$104,482Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a March 25 survey showing Tisza widening its lead over Fidesz-KDNP, have solidified trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability for Péter Magyar's centre-right opposition party to win Hungary's popular vote in the April 12 parliamentary election under proportional representation. This reflects sustained momentum from Tisza's surge since early 2026, eroding Fidesz's long-held dominance amid voter fatigue with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule, economic pressures, and EU tensions. With 15 days remaining, both sides intensify campaigning—Orbán via rallies and Ukraine-related accusations, Tisza through grassroots mobilization—though historical late shifts or turnout in single-member districts could still influence the national list vote outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes