Incumbent Karen Bass secured a narrow lead in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary with roughly 34% of the vote against Nithya Raman at 29% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, establishing a first-round margin in the 5–10% range amid high mail-ballot volume and sequential counting. Pre-election polls showed a tight three-way contest with Bass holding only a statistical tie or slight edge, but final tallies reflected her incumbency advantages in turnout and established voter coalitions. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% outcome because additional ballots are unlikely to alter the gap materially once certification nears. Late shifts from uncounted precincts or legal challenges to results could theoretically compress or expand the margin, though historical patterns in Los Angeles municipal primaries indicate such reversals are rare once leads exceed five points.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
LA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?
Bass 5–10% 96.4%
Bass 0–5% 2.3%
Bass 10–15% <1%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,575 Vol.
$207,575 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Bass 0–5%
2%
Bass 5–10%
96%
Bass 10–15%
<1%
Bass 15%+
<1%
Pratt Wins
<1%
Raman Wins
<1%
Other
<1%
Bass 5–10% 96.4%
Bass 0–5% 2.3%
Bass 10–15% <1%
Bass 15%+ <1%
$207,575 Vol.
$207,575 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Bass 0–5%
$42,934 Vol.
2%
Bass 5–10%
$51,039 Vol.
96%
Bass 10–15%
$31,966 Vol.
<1%
Bass 15%+
$11,297 Vol.
<1%
Pratt Wins
$36,150 Vol.
<1%
Raman Wins
$22,186 Vol.
<1%
Other
$12,004 Vol.
<1%
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Karen Bass secured a narrow lead in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary with roughly 34% of the vote against Nithya Raman at 29% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, establishing a first-round margin in the 5–10% range amid high mail-ballot volume and sequential counting. Pre-election polls showed a tight three-way contest with Bass holding only a statistical tie or slight edge, but final tallies reflected her incumbency advantages in turnout and established voter coalitions. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% outcome because additional ballots are unlikely to alter the gap materially once certification nears. Late shifts from uncounted precincts or legal challenges to results could theoretically compress or expand the margin, though historical patterns in Los Angeles municipal primaries indicate such reversals are rare once leads exceed five points.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
Volumen
$207,575Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Incumbent Karen Bass secured a narrow lead in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary with roughly 34% of the vote against Nithya Raman at 29% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, establishing a first-round margin in the 5–10% range amid high mail-ballot volume and sequential counting. Pre-election polls showed a tight three-way contest with Bass holding only a statistical tie or slight edge, but final tallies reflected her incumbency advantages in turnout and established voter coalitions. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% outcome because additional ballots are unlikely to alter the gap materially once certification nears. Late shifts from uncounted precincts or legal challenges to results could theoretically compress or expand the margin, though historical patterns in Los Angeles municipal primaries indicate such reversals are rare once leads exceed five points.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$207,575Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Karen Bass secured a narrow lead in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary with roughly 34% of the vote against Nithya Raman at 29% and Spencer Pratt at 25.5%, establishing a first-round margin in the 5–10% range amid high mail-ballot volume and sequential counting. Pre-election polls showed a tight three-way contest with Bass holding only a statistical tie or slight edge, but final tallies reflected her incumbency advantages in turnout and established voter coalitions. Trader consensus heavily favors the 5–10% outcome because additional ballots are unlikely to alter the gap materially once certification nears. Late shifts from uncounted precincts or legal challenges to results could theoretically compress or expand the margin, though historical patterns in Los Angeles municipal primaries indicate such reversals are rare once leads exceed five points.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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