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Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara

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Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara

$18,435 Vol.

Polymarket

$18,435 Vol.

Partido Demócrata

$18,435 Vol.

95%

Partido Republicano

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominated the CA-15 House race on election night November 5, capturing around 71% of the vote against Republican Rick Rudman in this deep-blue Bay Area district, driving trader consensus to 94.5% for the Democratic Party. Mullin's strong primary win, fundraising superiority exceeding $3 million, and the district's consistent Democratic margins—over 70% in recent cycles—cemented his commanding position amid high turnout and no competitive polling threats. Official certification by San Mateo and Santa Clara counties awaits final canvass by mid-December, but with a 40,000-vote margin and no recounts requested, upset scenarios remain remote, hinging on improbable late absentee ballot surges or procedural irregularities.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$18,435
Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominated the CA-15 House race on election night November 5, capturing around 71% of the vote against Republican Rick Rudman in this deep-blue Bay Area district, driving trader consensus to 94.5% for the Democratic Party. Mullin's strong primary win, fundraising superiority exceeding $3 million, and the district's consistent Democratic margins—over 70% in recent cycles—cemented his commanding position amid high turnout and no competitive polling threats. Official certification by San Mateo and Santa Clara counties awaits final canvass by mid-December, but with a 40,000-vote margin and no recounts requested, upset scenarios remain remote, hinging on improbable late absentee ballot surges or procedural irregularities.

Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominated the CA-15 House race on election night November 5, capturing around 71% of the vote against Republican Rick Rudman in this deep-blue Bay Area district, driving trader consensus to 94.5% for the Democratic Party. Mullin's strong primary win, fundraising superiority exceeding $3 million, and the district's consistent Democratic margins—over 70% in recent cycles—cemented his commanding position amid high turnout and no competitive polling threats. Official certification by San Mateo and Santa Clara counties awaits final canvass by mid-December, but with a 40,000-vote margin and no recounts requested, upset scenarios remain remote, hinging on improbable late absentee ballot surges or procedural irregularities.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

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Preguntas frecuentes

"CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Partido Demócrata" con 95%, seguido de "Partido Republicano" con 5%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 95¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 95% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" ha generado $18.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 28, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" es "Partido Demócrata" con 95%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 95% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Partido Republicano" con 5%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.