The 90% "Yes" probability for the 2026 midterm elections occurring as scheduled on November 3 reflects the U.S. Constitution's Article I, Section 4 mandate for biennial congressional elections, with the uniform date codified by Congress since 1875 and unchanged through crises like world wars, 9/11, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. No recent legislative proposals, official statements from congressional leaders, or executive actions signal any postponement, as altering the schedule requires bipartisan congressional approval amid extraordinary circumstances such as a national emergency. Trader consensus prices in historical continuity and the high procedural barriers, with the lame duck session and 119th Congress convening in January posing no disruption risks; only unprecedented events like widespread catastrophe could alter this path.