Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie faces a competitive Republican primary challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18. President Trump's March 11 rally in the district, where he sharply criticized Massie and boosted Gallrein, has intensified intra-party tensions stemming from Massie's 2025 vote against a government funding bill, yet traders maintain strong consensus on a GOP general election win on November 3. Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange show minimal fundraising—under $12,000 cash on hand each—reinforcing historical GOP dominance, with Massie securing 99.6% in 2024 and 65-67% in prior cycles against Democratic opponents. Barring an unforeseen primary upset weakening the nominee or late Democratic surge, Republican victory odds reflect the district's entrenched partisan lean and weak opposition path-to-victory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoKY-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
KY-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
90%
Partido Demócrata
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
90%
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie faces a competitive Republican primary challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18. President Trump's March 11 rally in the district, where he sharply criticized Massie and boosted Gallrein, has intensified intra-party tensions stemming from Massie's 2025 vote against a government funding bill, yet traders maintain strong consensus on a GOP general election win on November 3. Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange show minimal fundraising—under $12,000 cash on hand each—reinforcing historical GOP dominance, with Massie securing 99.6% in 2024 and 65-67% in prior cycles against Democratic opponents. Barring an unforeseen primary upset weakening the nominee or late Democratic surge, Republican victory odds reflect the district's entrenched partisan lean and weak opposition path-to-victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie faces a competitive Republican primary challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18. President Trump's March 11 rally in the district, where he sharply criticized Massie and boosted Gallrein, has intensified intra-party tensions stemming from Massie's 2025 vote against a government funding bill, yet traders maintain strong consensus on a GOP general election win on November 3. Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange show minimal fundraising—under $12,000 cash on hand each—reinforcing historical GOP dominance, with Massie securing 99.6% in 2024 and 65-67% in prior cycles against Democratic opponents. Barring an unforeseen primary upset weakening the nominee or late Democratic surge, Republican victory odds reflect the district's entrenched partisan lean and weak opposition path-to-victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie faces a competitive Republican primary challenge from Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein ahead of the May 19, 2026, contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+18. President Trump's March 11 rally in the district, where he sharply criticized Massie and boosted Gallrein, has intensified intra-party tensions stemming from Massie's 2025 vote against a government funding bill, yet traders maintain strong consensus on a GOP general election win on November 3. Democrats Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange show minimal fundraising—under $12,000 cash on hand each—reinforcing historical GOP dominance, with Massie securing 99.6% in 2024 and 65-67% in prior cycles against Democratic opponents. Barring an unforeseen primary upset weakening the nominee or late Democratic surge, Republican victory odds reflect the district's entrenched partisan lean and weak opposition path-to-victory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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