Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding lead in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic seat with a partisan lean of D+6, driving trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages, including a September Emerson poll showing Himes ahead 52%-32%, underscore his incumbency advantage after 16 years in office, bolstered by superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Mike Goldstein—and strong performance among key voting blocs in affluent Fairfield County suburbs. No major scandals, endorsements, or campaign events have emerged in the past 30 days to erode his position. While a massive national Republican wave or late-breaking Himes controversy could narrow the gap before the November 5 election, historical precedents in safe districts favor continuity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoCT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$15,813 Vol.
$15,813 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$15,813 Vol.
$15,813 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$11,037 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$4,776 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding lead in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic seat with a partisan lean of D+6, driving trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages, including a September Emerson poll showing Himes ahead 52%-32%, underscore his incumbency advantage after 16 years in office, bolstered by superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Mike Goldstein—and strong performance among key voting blocs in affluent Fairfield County suburbs. No major scandals, endorsements, or campaign events have emerged in the past 30 days to erode his position. While a massive national Republican wave or late-breaking Himes controversy could narrow the gap before the November 5 election, historical precedents in safe districts favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$15,813Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding lead in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic seat with a partisan lean of D+6, driving trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages, including a September Emerson poll showing Himes ahead 52%-32%, underscore his incumbency advantage after 16 years in office, bolstered by superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Mike Goldstein—and strong performance among key voting blocs in affluent Fairfield County suburbs. No major scandals, endorsements, or campaign events have emerged in the past 30 days to erode his position. While a massive national Republican wave or late-breaking Himes controversy could narrow the gap before the November 5 election, historical precedents in safe districts favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$15,813Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding lead in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic seat with a partisan lean of D+6, driving trader consensus to 91% for the Democratic Party. Recent polling averages, including a September Emerson poll showing Himes ahead 52%-32%, underscore his incumbency advantage after 16 years in office, bolstered by superior fundraising—over $3 million raised versus under $100,000 for Republican challenger Mike Goldstein—and strong performance among key voting blocs in affluent Fairfield County suburbs. No major scandals, endorsements, or campaign events have emerged in the past 30 days to erode his position. While a massive national Republican wave or late-breaking Himes controversy could narrow the gap before the November 5 election, historical precedents in safe districts favor continuity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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